Jay Ajayi was just declared the goat. No, I definitely don't mean the Muhammad Ali of running backs (that would be Jim Brown). Just a plain old goat; possibly a scapegoat, if you don't side with coach Adam Gase. See, the recent passive aggressive public comments by his former coach imply that Ajayi was one of the problems in Miami, rather than a possible solution. This is why he is going to be trading teal for green, at least for the remainder of the 2017 season.

After weeks of verbal altercations on the sidelines and behind closed doors with coaches, Ajayi was shown the door on Tuesday, just ahead of the NFL trade deadline. He is now a member of the first-place Philadelphia Eagles and will share a backfield with Super Bowl champ LeGarrette Blount. Last year's Pro Bowl representative for Miami was acquired for the price of a fourth-round pick.

Meanwhile, the Dolphins are left with the tandem of Kenyan Drake and Damien Williams to head up the backfield of a broken offense for a team that is somehow 4-3. Despite being a wild card contender, the Fins are one last-second play away from being shutout three times in seven games and rank dead-last in total offense. What could this mean for the fantasy value of the remaining Dolphins, if there's any value left to be had? How will Ajayi fit into his new team where he'll go from workhorse to committee member?

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The Jay Train Heads North

Riding the Jay Train the last two and a half years in Miami has been more like a roller coaster for fans and fantasy owners. He got off to an inauspicious start as a rookie in 2015, carrying the ball just 49 times for 187 yards, one touchdown and a 3.8 rushing average. The team still had Lamar Miller and it was Joe Philbin's last season in Miami. Interim coach Dan Campbell was playing for a job and didn't need to risk putting a rookie tailback in the game. Last season, Arian Foster was brought in to win the job because it wasn't believed that Ajayi could handle the load. Win the job he did, and Ajayi didn't take kindly to it. In fact, Ajayi was left home for Week 1 while new coach Adam Gase sent a message to his pouting tailback and his new team. That message? Get over yourself or go home.

Ajayi turned a negative into a positive and worked hard until he earned his coach's trust again. He got his chance to fill in for an injured Foster and then shocked the football world by running for 204 yards and two TD against the Steel Curtain in Week 6. Then, he did it again with 214 yards and another two scores in Week 7. He finished the year with 1,272 yards and eight TD in 12 starts, earning a Pro Bowl berth. Ajayi was naturally taken as a late first-round or early second-round pick in nearly all fantasy drafts, as he was a workhorse in the making with no threat of competition brought in.

2017 has been a different story. Ajayi started off with a bang, racking up 122 yards on 28 carries and looking every bit what we expected. Then he laid an egg. And another. And another. The complete lack of passing game headed by newly unretired QB Jay Cutler and more injuries to the offensive line were all part of the conspiracy to keep Ajayi from being even modestly effective. A Week 6 victory against Atlanta (130 yards) provided hope, but still no touchdowns despite a 79% market share of carries, 11 red zone rushes and a 100% share of red zone carries on his team.

Was Ajayi to blame or was it his offensive line and scheme? We may not get a clear answer on that until we see how things shake out the rest of this season, but it was painfully obvious that whatever the Dolphins were trying wasn't working. This culminated in a disastrous showing on national TV when the team was once again blanked on the scoreboard and dominated by a then 3-4 Ravens team to the tune of 40-0. Ajayi was hit behind the line of scrimmage repeatedly and could only muster 23 yards on 13 carries, with 21 of those coming on the very first play of the game. Here's a look at his chart that could be interpreted as the straw that broke the camel's back:

According to NFL NextGenStats, he is currently the league's eighth-least efficient running back with a 4.84 rating. That puts him just ahead of three rookies, two RB over the age of 30 (Jonathan Stewart and Adrian Peterson), a player who isn't in the league any more (Chris Johnson), and Eddie Lacy.

So what could change in Philly so suddenly that would make him worth our attention and possibly even a buy-low candidate?

 

It's All About the O-line

It's no secret that the Dolphins' offensive line has resembled Swiss cheese far too often in 2017. Miami lost starting guard Ted Larsen to IR before the season began, and has seen center Mike Pouncey and tackle Laremy Tunsil both miss time due to injuries. Even so, when all playing together, they've been completely ineffective.

After Week 5, PFF's Zoltan Buday assessed the Dolphins' offensive line thusly: "They average 1.06 and 0.12 yards before contact on inside zone and outside zone runs respectively, which are their two most frequently used run concepts. Overall, Miami’s running backs average just 0.66 yards before contact, which is the fourth-lowest in the NFL."

By running backs, it really means Ajayi since he takes 80% of all the carries. According to ESPN's KC Joyner (via Miami Herald's Barry Jackson), "the Dolphins are blocking successfully on running plays just 31.1 percent of the time, which is worst in the league. Ajayi has an 8.1 average when he has good blocking, better than the 7.8 league average, and had a 1.3 average on bad blocking, barely below the 1.4 league average."

Last year, his elusiveness rating was top-five in the league. Surely, his skills didn't fall off a cliff for no reason this year. Ajayi made the most out of what he had and can do even better with a strong O-line. If there's a reason Ajayi was run out of town, it wasn't due to pure running ability or lack thereof. His effectiveness on pass protection is another issue, but that's still up for debate.

Now, on the flip side we have the Eagles. They aren't just better, they are the best. Here's the way the best offensive lines in the NFL graded out after five weeks.

The Eagles could easily have as many as three offensive lineman in the Pro Bowl this year, headed by center Jason Kelce. Losing tackle Jason Peters for the season with an ACL/MCL tear certainly hurts, but the unit as a whole shouldn't be downgraded too much.

Ajayi gets a big upgrade with the road graders in front of him and possibly an even bigger boost at quarterback. Ajayi will now be taking handoffs from a newly pronounced future Hall of Famer, Carson Wentz. The second-year QB has been unflappable this year and will keep defenses honest with the pass, allowing Ajayi plenty of room to breathe before reaching the LOS. This may seem paradoxical since current Eagles RB LeGarrette Blount has faced stacked boxes (eight or more men) nearly 10% more often than Ajayi. Simply put, this is a byproduct of skill set. Blount is never in for receiving downs and does much of his work in and near the red zone, so opponents are aware that a run play is more likely. Ajayi was almost always in the game regardless of situation in Miami.

 

Buy, Sell or Hold?

If you're an Ajayi owner that's held on this long, you're initial reaction is probably that of glee. In an instant, he went from the 32nd-ranked offense to the second-best offense in the league. For reasons mentioned earlier, this should make him far more efficient.

Here's the rub: Blount is still there. Obviously, the team wouldn't have traded for Ajayi in the first place if they were happy with what they had in him, but he doesn't seem at risk of being cut or traded either. This means Blount will eat into Ajayi's previously high-level workload and could leave him closer to 15 carries per game as opposed to the 19.7 A/G he was seeing with the Fins.

As far as touchdowns, while he'll have a greater chance to score on those red zone carries, he'll get far less of them too. This is where Blount excels most, as you may have noticed from his league-leading 18 TD a year ago in New England. He's gotten 17 RZ attempts this season, but only turned in two scores all year. Early estimations would put the split at 70/30 in favor of Ajayi for goal-line work initially. But if coach Gase proves to be right that Ajayi is not being aggressive enough in hitting the hole and can't punch it in, Blount could retrieve the role of goal-line specialist once more. Don't expect a glut of touchdowns all of a sudden, as Ajayi has only turned in five TD runs less than 10 yards in his career.

He could see a surprising uptick in receiving production. He was badly underutilized as a pass-catcher in Miami, but that's partially a result of his own lack of focus. Ajayi caught 50 passes as a junior in Boise State, so he does have the skill set to do so, unlike Blount or anyone else in Philadelphia. If anything, Ajayi's value in PPR leagues should get a slight boost, while it has little chance of matching his preseason ADP in standard leagues. He simply won't be depended upon enough to warrant the first-round pick he cost, but you won't get enough back on your investment by selling him now that he's in a better situation. Unless you have an Eagles fan in your league, or a desperate owner shooting for the moon who gives you an offer you can't refuse, you're better off holding him and reaping some rewards, finally.

 

Will the Dolphins Have a Running Game?

No. It's not that complicated really. If Ajayi was so terribly ineffective and backup Kenyan Drake is ready to handle a full workload, then why has Drake only been on the field for 8.6% of all offensive snaps this season? Why was he never used in games at Baltimore or New York when the run game needed a boost that Ajayi wasn't providing? It's become painfully obvious that this deal was made as a result of Ajayi's public and private criticizing of the coaching staff than his lack of effectiveness. The long-term concerns about his knee are legitimate and make him expendable, but the timing of this trade is not about health.

Kenyan Drake was drafted out of Alabama in the third round last year to provide help as a kick returner and serve as a passing-down back. In 23 career games, he has seen a total of 43 rush attempts and 16 pass targets. He hasn't done enough in practice or preseason to show that he deserves to be an RB1 on any team. Drake could prove capable of being part of a committee with a bigger back on the other side, but the Dolphins just don't have that.

Instead, they have diminutive Damien Williams who was undrafted out of Oklahoma. Williams has 4.4 speed and catches the ball well, but that simply makes him a poor man's Kenyan Drake. Until we see DeVante Parker stay healthy and Jay Cutler move the chains on a consistent basis, there's no reason to believe any Dolphins running back has value this season. In turn, this downgrades the receivers in Miami a bit more. Even thought they may see a higher volume of targets, they're less likely to turn those into scores or long plays since defenses have no reason to stack the box or respect the run game any more. Jarvis Landry is the only skill player on the team worth starting on a weekly basis.

 

The Eagles Side

To reiterate what was said earlier about Blount, he should still have a role unless Ajayi plays so well this week that the team decides to ditch the veteran and keep Corey Clement in the backup role instead. Keep in mind, Ajayi will have been with his new team less than a week and faces the Denver Broncos, who have allowed by far the fewest fantasy points to running backs this season and limited opponents to a 3.0 Y/A average.

Blount could still see significant action this season, since this is a contender, not a rebuild. He's worth holding as a handcuff in standard leagues, if nothing else. Clement doesn't have fantasy value outside of deep dynasty leagues, but he shouldn't be owned as long as both Blount and Ajayi are in town. Wendell Smallwood could be the odd man out, but the Eagles did roll with four RB at the beginning of the year and could do so again. His value takes a severe hit, however, and he is also a drop candidate.

It's too soon to assume that the Eagles' wide receivers will see less action if the team tries to run the ball more, but if the offense is more effective then it could wind up helping a team that already ranks second in red zone efficiency with a 68% TD conversion rate. The only player that might suffer in Philadelphia is kicker Jake Elliott.

 

Conclusion

This is the type of deal that causes a ripple effect across the fantasy landscape. It appears the Dolphins offense as a whole will take a big hit, while the rich get richer in Philadelphia. We'll have more fallout from a dynasty perspective coming soon. For now, Jay Ajayi owners can be thankful that his outlook has changed, while owners desperate for running back help will have to roll the dice on Kenyan Drake to see if he can at least provide a modicum of value for the remainder of 2017.

 

More 2017 Fantasy Football & ADP Analysis