RADIO
The NFL Draft looms, but several players have already seen their fortunes change through free agency, for better or worse. There hasn't been much movement at the quarterback position, at least among the big name players. However, the addition of a playmaker at wide receiver or the loss of a key offensive lineman could greatly affect a quarterback's stock.
Here is a look at the quarterbacks who have seen a significant change in their dynasty stock for the 2017 season, for better or worse.
Note: 2017 average draft positions from Fantasy Football Calculator are in parentheses.
Stock Rising
Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles (13.04)
2016 stats: 3,782 pass yds, 16 TD, 14 INT, 150 rush yds, 2 TD
No signal-caller saw a bigger upgrade in surrounding cast this offseasn than Wentz. All-Pro Alshon Jeffery and speedster Torrey Smith are leaps and bounds ahead of last year's duo of Dorial Green-Beckham and Nelson Algholor, both of whom can be considered huge busts. If you consider that Jordan Matthews is an above-average slot receiver, Zach Ertz was the fifth-most productive TE in the league and Darren Sproles is still a pass-catching weapon out of the backfield, Wentz almost has too many good options to choose from. While a Total QBR of 52.8 doesn't look very promising, Wentz survived his rookie year as well as he could have, given the circumstances. He is the ideal QB2 with upside once you've secured a solid veteran early on.
Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10.02)
2016 stats: 4,090 pass yds, 28 TD, 18 INT, 165 rush yds, 1 TD
Having a young stud WR like Mike Evans was enough to keep Winston hovering near low-end QB1 status in 12-team leagues, but that alone won't be enough to propel him any higher in dynasty leagues. Enter deep threat DeSean Jackson, who can quickly turn any Sunday afternoon into a huge fantasy day. Jackson scored from 50 yards or more eight times during his three-year tenure in Washington. According to PFF's Eliot Crist, Winston was the most efficient QB on crossing routes, with a 145.8 QBR on such plays. The Bucs might make an even bigger upgrade to the offense if they take a running back like fellow Seminole Dalvin Cook in the draft. Winston made do with basically one bona fide starting receiver and a revolving door on the other side. In year three, it looks like Winston could take the next step toward being a top-10 QB.
Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams (16.02)
2016 stats: 1,089 pass yds, 5 TD, 7 INT, 16 rush yds, 1 TD
A negative TD/INT ratio, 54.6% completion rate and 0-7 record don't inspire much hope. In fact, Goff's statistical line was in some regards a bad omen for the future. But the Rams' entire season needs to be put in the rear mirror. A new head coach, improvements on the offensive line and some changes at receiver could do wonders for the top overall pick. Sean McVay helped the aforementioned Cousins become a fantasy weapon and could do something similar with Goff. Let's not get carried away in calling him a future star just yet, or even a viable fantasy starter for 2017, but it's way too early to simply bail on the #1 pick after half a season filling in on a team that was awful before and after he arrived.
Stock Falling
Kirk Cousins, Washington Redskins (7.11)
2016 stats: 4,917 pass yds, 25 TD, 12 INT, 96 rush yds, 4 TD
I've been on the Cousins bandwagon the last two years, with fairly good results, but it's time to jump right off. Cousins threw for a combined 9,000 yards and posted an adjusted completion percentage between 76.3% and 78.5% in 2015-2016, which placed him in the top eight among all QB. He held his end of the bargain, but his value may be sabotaged by Washington's front office. Losing your top two receivers is never a good thing, especially when their replacements all come with question marks. Terrelle Pryor flashed his talent by putting up a 1,000-yard season in the barren wasteland we call Cleveland, but it was his first full season as a starting wideout. Josh Doctson barely saw the field in his rookie year, and we all know about Jordan Reed's reliability. Head coach Jay Gruden has said he would like to rely on the ground game a bit more, so the last step is for Washington to add another running back, which could happen in the middle rounds of the draft. If he stays in Washington, Cousins will slide down to QB2 status. If he moves to San Francisco, the outcome could be even worse.
Tyrod Taylor, Buffalo Bills (12.08)
2016 stats: 3,023 pass yds, 17 TD, 6 INT, 580 rush yds, 6 TD
At the time of this writing, the Bills have yet to decide if they will take a QB (Deshaun Watson?) early in this year's draft. Even so, there's little chance Taylor won't be starting at least the first half of the year. That said, there's a very good chance he won't be the starter in 2018, as he was under the gun late last season. Although Taylor is under contract for the next two seasons, the Bills could release him after 2018 with hardly any financial consequences. Add in recovery from a groin surgery in January, which is not a friendly injury for a running QB, and a head coaching change and there are red flags all over the place.
Drew Brees, New Orleans (4.05)
2016 stats: 5,208 pass yds, 37 TD, 15 INT, 20 rush yds, 2 TD
OK, so you don't need to go selling Brees before the season starts, but there are some warning signals regarding his elite fantasy value. His receiving options are getting worse, with the loss of Brandin Cooks and Tim Hightower, and he is another year closer to 40. The addition of Adrian Peterson may mean that the Saints really, truly, actually, honestly plan to focus on the running game more this season to alleviate pressure on the defense. Unfortunately, at this point you have no choice but to hold Brees because his actual value for this season will far outweigh his trade value in dynasty. Hope that the Saints add a quality receiver in the draft and/or free agency before training camp breaks.
