RADIO
For the last two offseasons, one name that was mentioned more than anyone else as a potential "QB of the future" was Jimmy Garoppolo. After being drafted in the second round of the 2014 draft, it appeared the New England Patriots had found their QB to replace Tom Brady when father time finally caught up. Fast forward to 2017 and Brady not only has two more Super Bowls on his resume, but he is still playing at an elite level. The Patriots would have been facing a tough decision this offseason as Garoppolo’s rookie contract was set to expire and if they wanted to keep him another year, it would have cost around $22 million for the franchise tag. For a savvy team like the Patriots, paying a backup QB more than their starting QB didn’t make much sense. It was only a matter of time before the Patriots decided to part with Garoppolo, but this timing may have come as bit of a shock. The team Garoppolo landed on may have been a bit of a shock as well.
Monday evening it was reported that the San Francisco 49ers would be trading their 2018 second round pick to the Patriots for Garoppolo. It’s now official that the 49ers and head coach Kyle Shanahan have found their franchise QB. Such poor play this season from Brian Hoyer and C.J. Beathard likely prompted the 49ers to start looking for their QB now instead of waiting to address the situation in the draft or free agency this offseason. If I was a betting man, my money would have been on Garoppolo being traded to the Cleveland Browns, who the Patriots denied multiple times and the 49ers would have signed a QB Shanahan once groomed in Washington, Kirk Cousins. From a front office stand point, this route makes much more sense. Re-signing Garoppolo won’t be cheap, but the guaranteed money will be much less than what Cousins will demand and now they can use their potential top-three pick for a difference maker instead of a QB.
When you project the success, or failure, of Garoppolo, the talent around him will have a lot to do with it. I don’t want to discount the talent in San Francisco, but I think the head coach will be much more of an influence in this scenario. In fact, the talent in Cleveland is probably better at this point than San Francisco, but the coaching staff and front office are in disarray at times. Before setting in on the personnel around Garoppolo, let’s take a look at the head coach that seems to get the most from all of his QBs.
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Shanahan’s Track Record
When hired by the 49ers this offseason, Shanahan brought an excellent mixture of youth and experience to the coaching staff. At only 37 years old, Shanahan will be able to connect with his young team and brings nine years of experience as an offensive coordinator. At every stop Shanahan has made, he has had a unique ability to get the most out of his QBs.
| Year | Player | Completion % | Passing Yards | Touchdowns | Interceptions | |
| 2008 | Matt Schaub | 66.1 | 3043 | 15 | 10 | |
| 2009 | Matt Schaub | 67.9 | 4770* | 29 | 15 | Pro Bowl |
| 2010 | Donovan McNabb | 58.3 | 3377 | 14 | 15 | |
| 2011 | Rex Grossman | 57.9 | 3151 | 16 | 20 | |
| 2012 | Robert Griffin III | 65.6 | 3200 | 20 | 5 | |
| 2013 | Robert Griffin III | 60.1 | 3203 | 16 | 12 | |
| 2014 | Brian Hoyer | 55.3 | 3326 | 12 | 13 | |
| 2015 | Matt Ryan | 66.3 | 4591 | 21 | 16 | |
| 2016 | Matt Ryan | 69.9 | 4944 | 38 | 7 | Pro Bowl, MVP |
| *Led League |
It wasn’t until his stint with the Falcons in 2015 that Shanahan had a true franchise QB to work with. Robert Griffin had a spectacular rookie season in 2012, but outside of that, he was either hurt or ineffective. The stats that speak the most however come from when he did more with less. Matt Schaub put together an incredible 2009 campaign while working with Shanahan. Schaub not only led the league in passing yards that year, but his career highs in completions, completion percentage, yards and TDs came in that season.
A QB working with Shanahan has never thrown for less than 3,000 yards in a season. If you take the averages of these nine seasons and compare them to the ranks for QBs last season, they would be 17th in completion percentage, 19th in passing yards, 18th in touchdowns and 13th in interceptions. These numbers don’t sound great, but look at the QBs who are on this list. Two above average seasons from Schaub but then mix in Donovan McNabb at the very end of his career, Rex Grossman, two good seasons from Griffin and then Brian Hoyer before landing with Matt Ryan and helping the Falcons reach the Super Bowl.
The question we need to ask becomes, is Garoppolo better than everyone on this list outside of Matt Ryan right now? I don’t know how the answer isn’t yes. Garoppolo has had the last two and a half years to not only learn what it’s like to be a QB in a great organization that is well ran, but sit and learn from the greatest QB of all time. He has come groomed and ready to take over. There won’t need to be a big learning curve (just look at Jacoby Brissett with the Colts this season) and Garoppolo will haves some veterans around to help.
Offensive Player Values - 49ers
QB: Jimmy Garoppolo
Let’s start with the man who has prompted this entire article. The sample size for Garoppolo is very small. While he has had the opportunity to see game action, he only has two starts under his belt, one of which was the 2016 season opening against the Arizona Cardinals. When you have to start in the place of a suspended Brady on the road, that comes with some pressure. In his two games, he managed to throw for 496 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions. On the road against a good Cardinals secondary in his first start, he managed a 72.73 completion rate.
When Garoppolo was drafted, the biggest strengths in his profile was his quick release and athleticism. Both of these attributes will help while the 49ers try to beef up the talent around Garoppolo. The biggest weakness has already been addressed and it was whether he could move from a wide open spread offense to a more traditional NFL style offense. Shanahan will be running the same type of offense that Garoppolo has been exposed to in the past. He won’t be under center much and he will have the ability to hit open guys with his quick release instead of waiting for receivers to get open.
That said, I don’t believe he will be a top-five QB now or in the near future. John Lynch still has a lot of work to do to help the offense, but Garoppolo has the abilities to be a top-20 QB for the rest of 2017 (when he sees the field) while moving to a top-15 QB by the end of 2018. If Lynch is able to add good talent in the draft and nail a couple free agent signings, Garoppolo could be on his way to a top-five finish by the end of 2019. This situation with Garoppolo draws comparisons to Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre. Rodgers had an opportunity to sit behind a future hall of famer for several years while he had the opportunity to learn and grow. Rodgers finally took over as starter in his age 25 season while Garoppolo will be 26 by the time he starts his first game with the 49ers. Both Rodgers and Garoppolo have the athletic ability to escape the pocket, extend a play and find the open receiver. Within the next three years, we could be comparing the two in other ways as well.
RB: Carlos Hyde/Matt Breida/Joe Williams
Carlos Hyde will continue to man the backfield in 2017 and if Garoppolo can be any kind of an upgrade over the current QB play, Hyde will see a benefit the rest of the year. Hyde got off to a terrific start this season averaging 80.25 yards on the ground in his first four contests. As the QB play got worse though, he saw his production go down. Over his last 4 games, Hyde is only averaging 33 rushing yards a game. Long term, I am not interested in owning Hyde. He will be out of San Francisco soon and there is no telling where he ends up. It could be a risk trying to grab him at this point of the season because we don’t know what to expect. Only move on him if the price is right and he has the price of a low end RB2 for him best case.
Matt Breida and Joe Williams will be the future of this backfield though, and I see a one-two punch with different skill sets. Williams will be the hard-nosed back who will be the featured back. Breida will be the third down back who will offer a ton of PPR value to owners. Williams is on the IR this year, but the front office was high on the Utah product after the drafted. If Breida can take on the role after Hyde departs, he could be a huge safety valve for Garoppolo who comes from an offense that utilizes receiving back to their fullest potential. Not only that, but Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman were the gold standard of running backs who contribute on the ground and through the air while Shanahan was the offensive coordinator.
WR: Pierre Garcon/Marquise Goodwin/Trent Taylor
The biggest benefactor from this move is Pierre Garcon. A veteran WR that knows how to separate and get open, plus has some of the best hands in the sport, he will be a huge asset to a young QB learning a system. Garcon was a strong WR2 play heading into the season, and like Hyde, started strong but has faded with the poor QB play. Garcon has yet to reach the end zone this year but does have 40 receptions in eight games. That number would be higher had he not been removed from last week’s game with a neck injury. Garcon is 31, so he’s not a guy you want to buy into for long in dynasty formats, but he will offer solid value as he connects with Garoppolo.
Marquise Goodwin has offered some value as he is the man to stretch the field in San Francisco. He is averaging over 17 yards per reception right now but also without a touchdown. He is very much a boom or bust player, but I though he may be able to provide some value to owners as Taylor Gabriel did last year down the stretch. Gabriel is a more dynamic athlete, but both have plus speed that allow for big play ability. Working the deep ball with Goodwin will be a longer learning curve then Garcon, who can run far more routes. Goodwin probably holds the third most fantasy value on the 49ers right now.
I have been waiting on the Trent Taylor breakout and I still think it will be coming although it may be next year before we see it. The Garoppolo trade is best long term for Taylor who will now have a chance to grow with his new QB. In dynasty leagues, especially deep ones, I am stashing Taylor. I could see him becoming a Julian Edelman type receiver for the 49ers within the next or two. He has some work to do, but the whole organization does. Taylors snap count has increased as the season as gone on. During the first four weeks, Taylor was only averaging 32.75 snaps per game while that numbers has increased to 41 the past four weeks. He is also averaging 4.3 targets per game compared to Goodwin’s 5.8. They want Taylor involved and when Garoppolo becomes comfortable in the system, Taylor will see a huge boost. You’ll need to grab him now though.
TE: George Kittle
Quarterbacks who are new to a system tend to lean on their tight ends till things really start to click, so George Kittle could see the quickest stock increase. I only included Kittle in the tight end section because he’s the only one that matters dynasty wise for the 49ers right now. They also have Garrett Celek on the roster, but he is just depth at this point and the 49ers won’t be running very many two tight end sets. In PPR leagues, Kittle currently checks in as TE22, which isn’t awful considering the state of the 49ers offense right now. If Garoppolo can catch on quick though, Kittle could be a top-15 TE the rest of the season. Long term, he will sit around a TE15 as well. He would be a guy to own for depth in hopes of a potential breakout.
Dynasty Fallout
Shanahan does not have the easiest system to step in and run. Garoppolo is a smart enough player that he won’t take that long, but he will need to learn the system and grow with his current teammates. The 49ers will be on the bye Week 11, so I would bet Garoppolo will be the starter come Week 12. Six weeks of game action to get your feet wet will be great to have. The real value in this trade lives in 2018 and beyond. It’s great that the 49ers moved now though. Instead of waiting to make the move this offseason, the 49ers are allowing Shanahan the time to groom his new QB, install the system and tailor it to Garoppolo's needs and help build chemistry that will be critical to a 2018 rebound year. Even though the 49ers moved a second round pick to land Garoppolo, they will still have a high first round pick, a second round pick and two third round picks. It may not seem like it, but this trade brings optimism to the bay area. The 49ers thought they had franchise quarterbacks in Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick, but neither worked out as well as hoped.
Dynasty owners will want to start targeting young 49ers now. Get to them before the new system and new QB start to click and run well. If you are looking for help in 2017, keep your eyes on Hyde as a low end RB2 and Garcon as a low end WR2. This will take some time, so be patient and buy in on younger players who will be in San Francisco longer. The good news is that the 49ers have a great coaching staff, great front office and now they believe they have a great QB.
