Welcome back, RotoBallers! We now have a decent enough sample size in the early MLB season to look at some key offensive trends. Among those trends we will follow each week is contact rate. A sudden increase or decrease in contact rate could signal the beginning of an extended hot or cold streak.

Each week we will look at a few players on each side and compare their previous week's contact rate with their actual performance. We do this because we care about you, the fantasy player.

Top contact rate risers and fallers for each week can be found using RotoBaller's exclusive tool, which is part of our Premium MLB package.

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Contact Rate Risers

Justin Upton (OF, DET) - 94% Contact Rate - last seven days

Last seven days aside, there have been some really positive signs for Upton after his first 16 games. Upton is slashing .294/.419/.608 thanks to an increased Contact Rate and a 16.1 percent BB%. He's got an ISO of .314 thanks to an elevated HR/FB of 30.8 percent. Upton is hitting the ball on the ground much more, so perhaps he's adjusting his approach in order to sacrifice power for contact. So far he's off to a far different start than last year, so hopefully you didn't discount him too much in the preseason.

Evan Longoria (3B, TB) - 87% Contact Rate - last seven days

Longoria got off to a riveting start in 2017 with a home run and three RBI on Opening Day. He's slowed down since then, dropping to a .229 batting average. A three-hit game against the Tigers last week propelled him to a minor four-game hitting streak. Longoria's ceiling is probably right around last year's .273 which is also close to his .270 career mark. His power is the reason to keep him, but Longoria still has enough juice left to stay within the top-10 third basemen rankings.

Austin Hedges (C, SD) - 83% Contact Rate - last seven days

If anybody has turned things around lately, it's Hedges. If you're looking for a power surger, he fits the bill with four HR in the last seven days. He's also making better contact in that span, hitting a respectable .263. He still has a ways to go in order to make up for his putrid 0-for-24 start to the year, but he should be readily available in most leagues by owners who gave up on him or aren't aware that he has been the best hitting backstop in the game over the last couple of weeks.

Greg Bird (1B, NYY) - 78% Contact Rate - last seven days

This percentage doesn't look too great, but when you start the season with one hit in your first 26 at-bats, you'll take what you can get. Bird is still not close to approaching his numbers from the spring, but at least there is some progress here. Bird jacked his first homer finally on April 16, but is yet to go yard again. His contact rate is approaching the league average over the last seven days, but his average over that time has actually fallen to .067. A .133 BABIP combined with a gradual increase in contact rate could mean that Bird is bound to turn things around. Bird owners can also take solace in the fact he has only struck out four times in the last seven games, as opposed to 13 K in the first seven games. Then again, if the power doesn't come along soon, he still won't be worth rostering in mixed leagues. Hold for now and be patient if you used a draft pick on him.

 

Contact Rate Fallers

Jason Heyward (OF, CHC) - 76% Contact Rate - last seven days

Not to rain on anyone's championship parade, but despite his recent power display, Heyward is actually making less contact lately. He's seen an 11 percent drop in contact rate last week and is still showing an inability to hit lefties (2-for-12 this season). Of course, if the contact you make results in a grand slam, nobody really cares... Keep riding Heyward for now, but don't necessarily expect a full renaissance from his peak season, which came at the ripe age of 22. He's worth starting in most leagues of 12 or more teams.

George Springer (OF, HOU) - 64% Contact Rate - last seven days

A declining average isn't the only thing fantasy owners need to be concerned about with Springer. A bum hamstring cost Springer one game and could hamper his running ability in the near future. Not good for someone who was caught a league-high 10 times last season. In terms of batting average, he is at .213 on the year and has relied on his power alone for fantasy value. After nearly a month of baseball, Springer is taking less walks (7.2 percent BB%), hitting more ground balls (1.07 GB/FB) and has enjoyed a 28 percent HR/FB rate. It may be time to wonder whether, at age 27, Springer is a potential franchise player or simply a solid low-end OF1.

Chris Davis (1B, BAL) - 66% Contact Rate - last seven days

Never known as what you'd call a contact hitter, Davis is down to a mere 66 percent in the last seven days. His elevated .385 BABIP has supported a higher than average BA so far, but regression will be on its way. Davis usually hits around .250, but has gone far lower in recent seasons. Even worse, he's not contributing much in other categories. All three of his homers have been solo shots and he's only crossed the plate once in the last eight games, via home run. You know what you're getting when you own Davis, but there have been more lows than highs lately.

Tyler Saladino (2B, CHW) - 59% Contact Rate - last seven days

The good news is that Saldino finally drove in his first two runs of the year on Monday. That's pretty much it in the good news department. Despite not being a fantasy mainstay, Saladino is worth mentioning because he suffered the most precipitous drop of the week. He declined from an already-meager 71 percent Contact Rate down to 59 percent, a loss of 12 points. Saladino is not going to pile up HR or RBI, so he must reach base regularly to put his speed to use. Right now, he's batting .216 on the year with just one steal. Those hoping to use him at MI in AL-only or really deep leagues as a cheap source of SB can hold onto him, but that's the extent of his value.

 

More Risers and Fallers

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