RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers! We are now in the midst of the MLB season, so it's a good time to look at some key offensive trends. Among those trends we will follow each week is contact rate. A sudden increase or decrease in contact rate could signal the beginning of an extended hot or cold streak, leading to important waiver wire choices or start/sit decisions for fantasy baseball managers.
Each week we will look at a few players on each side of the coin and compare their previous week's contact rate with their actual performance over the course of the 2017 season. We do this because we care about you, the fantasy player.
Here are some of the top contact rate risers and fallers for Week 11 of the fantasy baseball season.
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Contact Rate Risers
Byron Buxton (OF, MIN) 82% contact rate last seven days (+15%)
Deja vu all over again? Earlier this season, I may have gotten a little too excited about Buxton's rising contact rate and mini power surge. As it stands right now, he's dead even at a .200 average for the season, with a .291 slugging percentage and .091 ISO. With all of nine extra-base hits in nearly 200 plate appearances, he's going to need to make a lot more contact before anyone can consider putting him in a starting lineup. While a 15 point climb in contact is a good sign, keep in mind that it barely brings him to a league-average clip and the quality of that contact isn't particularly good. Plus, he's still striking out 33.5% of the time this season.
Tommy Pham (OF, STL) 94% contact rate last seven days (+17%)
Pham has been a pleasant surprise all season and with Randal Grichuk languishing in the minors, Pham could retain a starting job permanently. His .370 BABIP has led to a career-high .302 batting average. Pham hit over .300 in several different minor-league stops, so this isn't just a flash in the pan. He didn't fare too well in Tuesday's double-header, collecting one hit in nine at-bats, but another strong week of production shows that he is still stream-worthy in leagues of 14 or more teams.
Max Kepler (OF, MIN) 93% contact rate last seven days (+13%)
This week's hard-luck case is Max Kepler. Despite a 93% contact rate, he's batting .115 in the last seven days. Kepler is by no means having a breakout season, slashing .250/.325/.425 with seven HR and 26 RBI. He has shown signs of improvement over his rookie campaign by striking out a bit less (18.1%) and improving his quality of contact. While you shouldn't tab Kepler for his averages, if he's seeing the ball well there is always the chance he catches fire like he did last July when he swatted eight HR in 91 AB. Kepler has been batting cleanup for a decent Twins offense, so the opportunity is certainly there for him to produce.
Dansby Swanson (SS, ATL) 90% contact rate last seven days (+14%)
Another repeat performer with tantalizing talent that has underperformed, lately we've seen more encouraging signs from the preseason Rookie of the Year candidate. Swanson is hitting .370 over the past week and .333 in the month of June. Add to that Tuesday night's 3-for-4, two RBI performance, giving him 11 in the last 13 games. Unlike perennial tease Buxton, Swanson seems to be more comfortable at the plate and has perhaps gotten over the high expectations heaped upon him in March. His turnaround has been fairly quiet, so you should still be able to buy low.
Contact Rate Fallers
Matt Davidson (3B, CHW) 43% contact rate last seven days (-21%)
It wasn't too long ago I said that Davidson's swing-for-the-fences approach wasn't problematic as long as he was making contact at an acceptable rate. 20 K in his last 36 at-bats might be a bit of a problem, however. Davidson isn't just this week's biggest faller in contact, he isn't even touching the ball on half of his plate appearances. While a young slugger is always prone to slumps like this, it doesn't mean you have to suffer through it with him. If you're in a deep-enough league with sufficient bench spots, put him on the shelf until he self-corrects. He doesn't need to be owned in most mixed leagues though.
Jason Kipnis (2B, CLE) 66% contact rate last seven days (-12%)
A rough year just keeps getting rougher for the former All-Star. Kipnis is down to .220 on the season, thanks to a 17.9% Soft% that is the highest of his career. His strikeout rate is actually lower than last year and right in line with his career average of 19%, so his .236 BABIP could eventually turn around. That will only happen if he is able to square up the ball better. He doesn't need to be dropped in any format, but it may require a bit more patience before Kipnis starts providing any ROI.
Hunter Renfroe (OF, SD) 57% contact rate last seven days (-13%)
The mashing has temporarily ceased. Renfroe picked up the home run pace and is now second in the NL with 13 HR. Unfortunately, he's gotten pull-happy as a result and has lost his discipline. Renfroe has struck out nine times in the past week and has a 16:1 K:BB ratio in the last two weeks. Renfroe has hit for average throughout the minors, so he doesn't project as a pure slugger only. It may take the majority of this season for him to fully flesh out his approach, though.
Danny Valencia (1B/3B, SEA) 64% contact rate last seven days (-12%)
On the one hand, Valencia has just three hits in his last 23 at-bats and a falling contact rate of 64% in the last week. On the other hand, he is hitting .342 in June with more RBI (14) than games played (11). He just homered and drove in three on Monday, proving that his brief slump shouldn't be taken too seriously. Valencia has increasingly become a solid corner infield option in mixed leagues and should be treated as such.
