RADIO
This article continues our team outlook series where we will break down each NFL team from a fantasy football perspective. We will cover the major changes on each roster from this off-season and project what the team will do in the upcoming year. Today we take a look at the Miami Dolphins.
The Miami Dolphins have had a fairly disastrous camp, especially injury-wise. Despite finishing a surprising 10-6 and gaining their first playoff berth since 2008, and some key additions to the defense, there aren’t many lofty expectations for the fish in 2017, and that was before training camp Injurygeddon.
Can Jay Cutler re-find his 2014/15 form? Will DeVante Parker have the breakout year many are expecting? Can Jay Ajayi repeat his from-out-of-nowhere rampage on his way to the Pro Bowl? Let’s dive in and have a look at which Dolphins are fantasy-worthy.
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Miami Dolphins 2017 Outlook
Offseason Moves
Notable Additions: QB Jay Cutler, TE Julius Thomas, TE Anthony Fasano, LB Lawrence Timmons, S T.J. McDonald, DE Charles Harris
Notable Losses: TE Jordan Cameron, TE Dion Sims, OT Branden Albert, DE Mario Williams
The Dolphins mostly stood pat on offense, addressing personnel by a few re-signings and adding practice squad types late in the draft or via free agency. The one major pre-camp offensive acquisition was TE Julius Thomas, brought in after 2 disappointing seasons in Jacksonville for a pack of gum and some pocket lint. Journeyman TE Anthony Fasano was also added. Gone is emerging TE Dion Sims to Chicago and the oft-injured Jordan Cameron who retired. Outside of the re-shuffling at TE, The biggest move, of course, was coaxing Jay Cutler out of retirement after Ryan Tannehill was lost for the season after aggravating the injured knee that ended his 2016 season prematurely. The depth chart at RB and WR looks virtually unchanged from the end of 2016. Defensively, they added veteran LB Lawrence Timmons from Pittsburgh, safety TJ McDonald from the Rams (who will be suspended the first 8 games), and safety Nate Allen, who last played for the Raiders. 1st round pick Charles Harris from Missouri figures to contribute right away as an edge-rush specialist.
Quarterback
Don’t laugh, but Jay Cutler might be the sleeper fantasy pick of 2017. How, you ask? Well he’s reunited with Adam Gase, the QB whisperer who seems to be able to speak Cutler’s language. During his one season with Gase as his OC, he managed the highest QB rating of his career at 92.3, and threw for over 3600 yards with 21 TDs and only 11 picks. Secondly, unlike his waning years in Chicago, he has a plethora of weapons to work with. There’s Pro Bowler Jarvis Landry, the aforementioned DeVante Parker, deep ball expert Kenny Stills, and emerging speedster Jakeem Grant. Add to that Julius Thomas, who also last excelled under Adam Gase. Cutler, while likely to be aggravating for Dolphins fans to watch, could rack up some impressive fantasy numbers. A big question mark as to how successful Cutler might be will be the offensive line, where depth and health are still major issues. For better or for worse, Jay Cutler is the ‘Phins potential savior QB in 2017. The good thing about a potential Cutler flame-out or injury is the presence of Matt Moore, a steady if not spectacular back-up who has proven he can keep the offense moving when called upon. If you own Cutler, you likely want to keep Moore on your watch list as well.
Running Back
Jay Ajay has missed a good part of camp recovering from a concussion, but he's back and has looked good in limited preseason reps. Last season, Ajayi went from end of the depth chart and even being left at home for the season opener for conduct reasons, to exploding for 1272 yards and 8 TDs at a fabulous 4.9 YPC clip on his way to the Pro Bowl. He added a paltry 151 receiving yards, but Adam Gase has said he wants his backs more involved in the passing game. Backing him up are Kenyon Drake and Damien Williams, two capable backs, with Drake looking like the next in line should Ajayi get hurt. Bottom line: A healthy Ajayi will get the football a ton, and there’s no reason to think he shouldn’t have another big season. But should he be hurt, speedster Drake is an intriguing waiver-wire option. Williams could vulture some goal-line carries from both.
Wide Receivers
While people have their eye on Jarvis Landry and his (surprising lack of) new contract, nearly all the buzz has been around third-year WR DeVante Parker. There’s been a ton of buzz around Parker, who has supposedly finally gotten his body in NFL shape, and who everyone believes is poised for a breakout season. Even battling injuries last year, Parker finally got on the map with 56 catches for 744 yards and four TDs, but his ceiling is exponentially higher. Jay Cutler’s #1 target is still likely to be Jarvis Landry, who hauled in 94 catches for 1136 yards, but only 4 TDs. Landry is gold in PPR leagues, but expect that number to drop some as more targets emerge. Kenny Stills re-signed for a big $$ extension, as last year he hauled in 42 catches for 726 yards, with nine of those catches going for TD. With Cutler a better deep-ball thrower than Ryan Tannehill, it’s very possible Stills could break double digits TD this season. A potential sleeper is diminutive second-year guy Jakeem Grant, who can flat-out fly. He rarely saw the field outside KR/PR duties last year, but Gase and OC Clyde Christensen have indicated they very much intend to get him involved in the offense. He won’t see a ton of snaps, but he could haul in a handful of long TDs. Rounding out the end of the WR corps is Leonte Carroo, who has one last chance to justify his 2015 third-round draft selection. Unless there are catastrophic injuries, don’t expect much fantasy-wise from Carroo. Undrafted Drew Morgan from Arkansas might also get some burn if the ‘Phins face some injury problems at WR.
Tight End
Julius Thomas once dominated the fantasy landscape at TE, not coincidentally when he worked under his now head coach Adam Gase in Denver. In 2013 and 2014, with Gase as his OC, he racked up a surreal 108 catches for 1,277 yards and 24 TD. The proceeding years in Jacksonville were much less prosperous, as a variety of injuries forced him to miss 12 games the last 2 seasons, and total only 76 catches for 736 yards and nine TD over that time period. Thomas has had a fairly quiet camp so far, but he’s been healthy, so the hope is he can regain at least some of his form. Backing him up will be longtime veteran Anthony Fasano, who figures to be mostly a blocker. Fasano hasn’t eclipsed 300 receiving yards since his last stint in Miami in 2012, so unless Thomas gets injured, he’s not much a fantasy option at TE. Bottom line: a healthy Julius Thomas will get his opportunities in Miami, but with Jay Cutler at the helm and a recent track record of injuries and under-productivity, Thomas is a big fantasy risk as a #1 TE. He should be there for the taking in mid to late rounds.
Kicker
The Dolphins didn’t even bother bringing in any competition for Andrew Franks, so the job is his. He had an average 2016, nothing to write home about, and went only 2-5 for FGs over 40 yards. There are better fantasy kicker options, but he’s the unquestioned starter, unless he starts going shank-wild.
Defense/Special Teams
The Dolphins defense should be somewhat improved in 2017. Injuries have really set back this unit's potential, with Koa Misi, Raekwon McMillan, and Tony Lippett all lost for the season. However, the additions of Lawrence Timmons, T.J. McDonald, and Charles Harris figure to pay immediate dividends, while having Xavien Howard healthy for an entire season should finally give the Dolphins the lock-down corner they’ve been coveting. Byron Maxwell revived his career last season, creating a decent set of bookend boundary corners. Meanwhile, Ndamukong Suh still anchors the DL, and Cameron Wake and his 11.5 sacks in 2016 returns for an 8th, and perhaps final season. Standout Reshad Jones also returns from injury at safety. This is a defense that, on paper, should repeat, and potentially improve on their respectable sack/interception totals from 2016.
Overall Fantasy Outlook
While the overall effectiveness of Miami’s offense is a big question mark, as their QB has literally stepped out of the announcer’s booth to sling the football around, he’s only 34, and reunited with the one coach who maximized his abilities. Some actually think he’s an immediate improvement over Ryan Tannehill, but I’d say that’s a stretch. I think Cutler will more or less be Cutler. He’ll have some big games, make some amazing throws, and some awful decisions that make Dolphins Fans and Cutler owners alike reach for the nearest adult beverage in sight. But he has lots of weapons, and those weapons will produce. Two Pro Bowlers, Jarvis Landry and Jay Ajayi, return and if DeVante Parker takes the big next step as expected, and Julius Thomas returns even partially to his Gase-era form, this should be a fairly explosive offense that scores a lot of points. But a lot of that depends on the offensive line, and there are major depth issues there. Draft high at your own risk.
Defensively, the Dolphins gave up a lot of yards last year, but did well in terms of sacks and INTs. Wake, Suh, and Timmons will anchor a defense that’s an interesting mix of veterans and very young players. It's possible the defensive numbers to improve, as Adam Gase brought in an influx of talent. If the OL can keep Cutler upright, and the new young blood on defense is up to the task, Miami could sneak their way into the playoffs again.
