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Early 2016 Mock Draft: Analyzing the First Round

Hey everyone, we here at RotoBaller just couldn’t wait any longer. We ran our first fantasy baseball mock draft this week because the fiending is real. A special thanks to Andrew and Brian who joined us from The Fantasy Fix.

The lineup (in draft order): Jacob Bogardus, Brad Johnson, Alex Brock, Harris Yudin, Max Petrie, Josh Leonard, Ross Williamson, Andrew Miller, Nick Mariano (myself), Tom Bellucco, Brian Dunshee, and Edward Suletan. Andrew and Brian joined us from The Fantasy Fix.

We put together a traditional 5x5 redraft, 23-round mock with 2 catchers, a corner and middle infielder, and 5 outfield slots. Pre-draft chatter touched quite a bit on how having five OFs to start would affect draft strategies. For now though, we have the first round to peek at.

 

The First Round

Pick 1.01: Mike Trout - Surprise, surprise. Okay, so this year that actually isn’t a given, but despite a horrid August where a wrist injury waylaid him, Trout still hit .299 with a career high 41 homers. Sure, it came with a career low 11 steals, but he actually walked more and struck out less than he did in 2014. 2012 may never be replicated, but the high ceiling and absurdly high floor you get with Trout (who is just turning 24!) is hard to pass up.

Pick 1.02: Bryce Harper –In his age-22 season he took massive steps forward, slugging 42 dingers (take that Trout), and hitting .330 while sporting an absurd 19% walk rate. People have come to feel that a certain plateau has been reached with Trout, while Harper just had his first season of over 150 games even though he’s had four major league campaigns as well, and plenty feel that 50 homers is very possible.

Pick 1.03: Paul Goldschmidt – Goldy is coming off his own career best year at that prime age of 27 where he posted a 103-33-110-21-.321 line. A first baseman who can be such a plus in each hitting category is just beautiful. Heck any player regardless of position who produces like that is a Fantasy God, and his durability is a big positive.

Pick 1.04: Giancarlo Stanton - He was mashing at a hilarious rate when he was on the field (27 HRs in only 318 plate appearances). Unfortunately injuries derailed his season again. While one can’t hold the whole “pitch to the face” one against him, he does have general durability concerns which the wrist injury tacked onto in 2015, and he won’t hit .300 for you. However, he has the strongest bat in the game right now. Power plays.

Pick 1.05: Andrew McCutchen - A perennial first rounder, he won’t ever carry any particular category, but is usually good for solid contributions across the board. If you owned McCutchen last year you might still feel a little burn from his April and September (where he hit .194 and .236, respectively), but he still tallied 91-23-96-11-.292. The average and speed really took a step back, but the hope is that with his health at 100% going into 2016, that he’ll look more like his 2014 self rather than last year.

Pick 1.06: A.J. Pollock - This drew some eyebrow raises from the crowd. He was a stolen base short of a 20-40 season, but many expect the regression monster to swarm Pollock and want to see more than one big year out of him to warrant first round consideration. In his favor, he increased his walk rate, cut his strikeout rate, and put up strong monthly splits. He also put a 6.6% jump in his Line Drive rate (14.2% to 20.8%). While asking for 20 home runs again might be too much, owners should not write him off as a one year wonder.

Pick 1.07: Josh Donaldson - Getting out of Oakland and taking Toronto by storm, Donaldson saw his HR/FB go from 14.6% to 21.8% and hit in the middle of a stacked lineup which allowed him to score 122 runs with 123 RBIs. There isn’t much reason to suspect his numbers will back off much from 2015, he’s only 30 and Toronto will still probably be tops in the league as far as runs scored goes.

Pick 1.08: Miguel Cabrera - Even though he turns 33 this season, Miggy continues to tee off on major league pitching like it’s your little cousin lobbing wiffle balls at him. He’s probably not going to hit 44 homers again as he did in 2012 and 2013, but getting a 25-30 HR bat with a .330 average is something everyone can get behind.

Pick 1.09: Carlos Correa - With the ninth pick staring me down, I had to see how taking the shortstop in the first round would set the tone. Let’s face it, there are a ton of amazing young shortstops out there right now, but with Correa getting a full season’s worth of plate appearances in, he may very well push for a 30-30 campaign.

Pick 1.10: Anthony Rizzo – A good spot for the guy at the heart of the order for a budding Cubbies lineup. Two consecutive seasons of 30+ homers, with this latest one coming with 101 RBIs, is impossible to ignore. He also cut down on strikeouts last year, going from 18.8% to 15%. Oh, don’t forget the fact that he stole 17 bags! Goldschmidt has competition for the stolen base crown in the first basemen’s club it appears.

Pick 1.11: Clayton Kershaw - Brian said that he almost always waits on pitching, but with the board that fell to him he had to “settle” for Kersh. Poor guy. Kershaw’s ADP on NFBC is 4, and at 11 you’re pretty certain you’ll still get a very good hitter at 14. At 11, you definitely smile at the prospect of getting Kershaw, no matter how pitching averse you are.

Pick 1.12: Jose Altuve – Riding a strengthened power stroke to a great 2015. His fly ball rate went from 29.7% to 35.2%, his average batted ball distance on fly balls was four feet greater (270 to 274), and his HR/FB rate almost doubled from 3.9% to 7.4%. He still hit .313 and made solid contact amidst this power surge, all the while racking up 38 stolen bases as he does. 100+ runs is very reasonable atop this growing Houston lineup.

 

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