RADIO
The Baltimore Ravens are a bit of a strange team to analyze for fantasy purposes this year. This is a team that pretty much has a little bit of everything; a polarizing quarterback in Joe Flacco, a surprising running back from 2014 in Justin Forsett, some turnover at the wide receiver position, and a need at tight end. This has never been a team that boasts fantasy production at every offensive position but even still, there’s reason for moderate expectations out of Baltimore this year.
Offseason Acquisitions: WR Breshad Perriman, TE Maxx Williams
No Longer on the Roster: WR Torrey Smith, WR Jacoby Jones, RB Bernard Pierce, TE Owen Daniels
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Quarterback
Jay Cutler, Matthew Stafford, Cam Newton. Believe it or not, that’s a portion of the list of quarterbacks Joe Flacco finished ahead of in fantasy points last year. That puts Flacco at 13th overall at the position, a highly respectable number even for standard-sized leagues. I’ve often drawn parallels between Joe Flacco and Tony Romo such that you can mention either name to any football fan, fantasy or otherwise, and you’ll almost certainly get a firm opinion on how good/bad they are. That’s just it with Flacco, he’s essentially been just below fantasy starter status his entire career. Last year alone he finished 12th among quarterbacks in both passing yards and touchdowns with 3,986 and 27 respectively. Take those numbers and compare them to his previous two years and the only major difference you’ll see is a big upswing in interceptions in 2013 with 22.
Throwing all of these numbers at you is just a long way of saying that Joe Flacco shouldn’t be viewed as a fantasy starter but rather a rock solid bye week fill in, especially in a tasty matchup. His ranking toward the bottom half of the top-20 isn’t so much related to his talent as it is the upside of others ahead of him. As solid as he is, guys like Eli Manning, Ryan Tannehill, Philip Rivers, Jay Cutler, and even Sam Bradford have a way better chance in obtaining fantasy stardom than Flacco. Unless you’re in a super deep or 2QB league, let him sit on waivers until your bye week rolls around. (I should add that I think the addition of offensive coordinator Marc Trestman benefits this team’s wide receivers and running backs more than it does QB. More on that in a bit.)
Wide Receivers
One of the biggest surprises to come out of the wide receiver position last year was that of Steve Smith in Baltimore. Not only was Smith 35 last season but it was also his first year away from the Carolina Panthers. In short, expectations were low. He then exceeded those expectations by racking up 1,065 yards and six touchdowns on 79 receptions via 133 targets. With that in mind, the best fantasy analysis isn’t about looking at the past but rather projecting the future. The bulk of Steve Smith’s production came in the first six games of the season before cooling off significantly. After Baltimore’s matchup with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Smith didn’t hit the 100 receiving yard mark the rest of the way. You can attribute some of that to Torrey Smith coming along but let’s be honest here; Steve Smith is no spring chicken. He just isn’t going to sustain his normal productivity anymore so his ranking outside the top-40 at the position tells you all you need to know about his expected value for 2015.
Back to Torrey Smith, he ended up finishing the year with 93 targets to his name. Since he’s now a member of the San Francisco 49ers, it wouldn’t be beneficial to look at his actual production. Those 93 targets are important though as it shows that the Ravens were able to factor in two wide receivers, even if it meant they were productive at different times. I initially envisioned rookie Breshad Perriman waltzing right into the Torrey Smith role and finishing 2015 with a similar amount of targets. Unfortunately, more recent reports suggest that Perriman has actually been behind Kamar Aiken as far as first team reps are concerned. Throw in the addition of a day-to-day knee injury and I'm beginning to temper my expectations on the rookie. I still like his draft value considering he's going well after other big name rookies like Amari Cooper, Nelson Agholor, and DeVante Parker but I don't view his path to fantasy relevance as clear as I once did.
I still believe that when all is said and done, Perriman ends up being the receiver with the second most targets behind Steve Smith. It just sounds like the Ravens aren't going to simply shift Torrey Smith's 93 targets over to him. That actually might be fine since it'll lower his ADP even more. Another reason Perriman hasn't been as talked up as much as those other rookies despite being a first round draft choice is because Baltimore has never been viewed as a high-powered offense. You know what'll help that? New offensive coordinator Marc Trestman. Trestman is an offensive guru who fizzed out in Chicago because he couldn’t meet high expectations. He runs a very pass heavy scheme that could be highly beneficial for the receivers and running backs involved. The targets might not be as easy to sort out as we'd like it to be but between Perriman, Aiken, Marlon Brown, and Michael Campanaro someone is likely to end up being the beneficiary. My money is still on the rookie Perriman I'm just not nearly as excited as I was a few weeks ago.
Running Backs
In the wake of the debacle that was the Ray Rice suspension, the running back position in Baltimore was virtually up for grabs. The favorite was Lorenzo Taliaferro but it was overlooked veteran Justin Forsett who had the most productive year. The interesting thing about Forsett is that he’s somewhat of a journeyman back, having played on three teams prior to landing in Baltimore and never really getting a true crack at starting. Once opportunity came knocking, he delivered to the tune of 1,266 rushing yards and eight touchdowns on 235 attempts. He was clearly the focal point of the offense out of the backfield and should be the starter this coming season.
The simple analysis on Forsett would be “he’s a solid RB2, he’s clearly the starter, grab him in the third or fourth round.” I’m not that easy. I look at the fact that he’s already 29 years old and with all of the criticism of older backs like Marshawn Lynch, Adrian Peterson, and Arian Foster, I don’t really get why Forsett is exempt. Granted, he doesn’t have nearly the amount of wear and tear as those guys but still; father time is and will forever be undefeated. The ranking of him as the 15th running back or so is fine it’s just that I don’t believe he’s head and shoulders above the likes of Melvin Gordon, Jonathan Stewart, and Frank Gore. There seems to be a consensus he’s above that group but to me they’re all still the same. Having said all that, Marc Trestman bumps up Forsett’s potential PPR value astronomically. Last year alone, Matt Forte had a ridiculous 808 receiving yards while playing under Trestman in Chicago. The only back with more receiving yards last year was Le’Veon Bell who actually managed to do it with less targets (Bell had 105 targets, Forte had a crazy 130). Basically, Forsett is just another RB2 in standard leagues but possesses legit RB1 upside in PPR formats. Barring a random breakout or shift in scheme toward Lorenzo Taliaferro, this is easily Forsett’s job to lose.
Rookies and Tight Ends
We’ve already talked at length about rookie wide receiver Breshad Perriman which leaves us with a player who is both a rookie and a tight end, Maxx Williams. The Ravens departed with Owen Daniels after he put up okay numbers last season. The better, more accurate marker to use in projecting the play of Maxx Williams would be to look at what Marc Trestman did with tight end Martellus Bennett in Chicago. Bennett put up two great years while playing for Trestman, specifically in 2014 when he totaled 916 yards on 129 targets. Trestman obviously likes to utilize the tight end position frequently so if Maxx Williams turns out to be anything good, he could be fantasy relevant sooner than you might think. He’s by no means a player worth drafting but tight ends come and go every year. If the guy you end up with after your draft flakes out, take a gander at how Williams is doing and consider him as a replacement.
Summary
There's a lot to absorb in evaluating the Baltimore Ravens 2015 outlook but once you know what's what it makes a lot of sense. A wide receiver not named Torrey Smith as well as running back Justin Forsett should be the immediate benefactors of the acquired Marc Trestman while Joe Flacco remains just below starter status. This isn't a flashy offensive group by any means but there's some still value to be had.
