RADIO
The Newbies
Spring Training is finally underway, and while some players are still looking for new homes, the dust has mostly settled from the offseason. Odds are that your favorite team is probably not a contender, even with whatever moves they made over the winter, but what about your fantasy team?
Here are five players whose new homes in the National League will impact their outlook for the 2015 fantasy season.
Jason Heyward, STL
You’ve heard the expression that it’s better to be lucky than good. Actually, it’s better to be both lucky and good, and that describes the Cardinals organization. To a certain extent, you can make your own luck with intelligent decisions and sound infrastructure. St. Louis has both, and it seems like every year they get a career season out of somebody on their way to yet another NLCS appearance.
Jason Heyward seems like an obvious candidate this year. He’s entering his age-26 season, and despite flashes of brilliance and considerable talent, he's really only managed to put it all together during one season, in 2012. A repeat of his performance that year (.814 OPS, 27 HR, 21 SB) wouldn’t be surprising.
Justin Upton, SD
Justin Upton has hit well at Petco in his career, posting a .291/.351/.541 line that’s actually better than his overall career averages. But that’s only 192 plate appearances, and we have a whole lot more data suggesting that Petco is pretty brutal on sluggers. I’ve also seen the Hit Tracker data that shows all of Upton’s 29 homers last season would have been out in Petco too. But you can’t just transpose to a different park without considering all the factors that influence batted ball distance.
Upton’s also lost a step or two in recent years, which will limit his ability to take advantage of Petco’s cavernous outfield for extra base hits. He’ll still be a useful player purely on talent, but some regression should be expected. Keep in mind, though, that Petco has reduced its dimensions for 2015, so we will have to watch how that plays out.
Max Scherzer, WAS
However you feel about the massive contract Max Scherzer received from the Nationals, it’s tough to argue with the results he’s delivered over the last three seasons. Now he moves to the NL, with a much better defense behind him on a team that seems like as close to a lock for 100 wins as any in recent memory. Even if Scherzer simply maintains his level of performance, he’ll be among the best pitchers in baseball again. That there’s even a chance of improvement is kind of unfair.
Michael Cuddyer, NYM
I wrote about Michael Cuddyer back in February. Nothing’s changed. Aging vets who leave Coors and land in a pitcher-friendly park do not have an inspiring track record. I would have been bearish on Cuddy even if he’d stayed in the thin air of Denver. Now? I wouldn’t touch him with a thirty-nine-and-a-half foot pole.
Jon Lester, CHC
The Cubs suddenly look a lot less terrible than they've been in recent years. In an effort to build on that not-terribleness, they went out and signed Jon Lester to front their rotation. Wrigley generally plays a lot friendlier toward pitchers than does Fenway, and the move to the Senior Circuit should likewise help offset regression after a career year. Lester's been one of the best pitchers in the game since his first full season way back in 2008, and he's been a model of durability too. For one reason or another, I've never owned him, but you should.
