RADIO
Welcome to this little discussion on batters who are smoking the ball. I wrote a similar column a few weeks ago, and thought it would be fun to make this a regular column throughout the season. When analyzing hitters, we love seeing that they’re making solid contact and really putting a charge into the ball. There are several different ways you can go about seeking out this data, and there is plenty of context needed aside from simply “Kronk hit ball hard, ball go far, Kronk good player.” We’re not barbarians here!
The goal here was to use Statcast to check in on the average exit velocity leaders for the entire season, and then also use that data to view those who have hit the most 100+ MPH balls at a launch angle greater than 10 degrees to weed out the grounders (not that they don’t have their place, but we want the power shots). Then you’ll find the hard-hit leaders according to Fangraphs for the past 30 days if you want to see whose name repeats, as well as a few surges from the past 14 days at the end.
Without further ado, here’s that sweet data (numbers as of May 20).
2016 Average Exit Velocity Leaders
| Player Name | Average Exit Velo (in MPH) | Average Distance (feet) | Average Launch Angle (degrees) | Average Height (feet) | Number of Hits Tracked |
| Cameron Rupp | 96.0 | 211.7 | 9.5 | 35.4 | 54 |
| Nelson Cruz | 95.5 | 228.3 | 10.7 | 43.7 | 95 |
| Christian Yelich | 95.0 | 203.6 | 2.6 | 23.7 | 103 |
| Mark Trumbo | 95.0 | 249.5 | 18.5 | 54.1 | 95 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 94.9 | 237.0 | 10.9 | 47.3 | 74 |
| Domingo Santana | 94.8 | 206.0 | 4.7 | 18.7 | 60 |
| Joc Pederson | 94.8 | 236.3 | 18.3 | 53.4 | 64 |
| Miguel Sano | 94.8 | 261.1 | 19.6 | 58.6 | 82 |
| Ryan Zimmerman | 94.8 | 212.8 | 6.0 | 31.5 | 95 |
| Yasmani Grandal | 94.8 | 212.7 | 5.4 | 29.4 | 57 |
| David Ortiz | 94.8 | 248.7 | 13.5 | 48.3 | 109 |
| Eric Hosmer | 94.4 | 216.3 | 6.4 | 30.1 | 103 |
| Tyler Flowers | 94.3 | 205.7 | 7.1 | 26.0 | 41 |
| Justin Bour | 94.2 | 230.4 | 12.9 | 43.6 | 78 |
| Chris Carter | 94.2 | 237.7 | 14.0 | 50.7 | 87 |
| Danny Valencia | 94.1 | 248.3 | 13.6 | 39.6 | 66 |
| Josh Donaldson | 93.9 | 239.2 | 16.5 | 50.3 | 111 |
| Khris Davis | 93.8 | 239.7 | 16.8 | 55.1 | 98 |
| David Wright | 93.8 | 261.4 | 19.4 | 49.4 | 60 |
| J.J. Hardy | 93.8 | 211.7 | 14.4 | 42.9 | 63 |
| Nick Markakis | 93.8 | 223.4 | 10.9 | 34.2 | 107 |
| Ryan Howard | 93.7 | 245.7 | 19.0 | 55.9 | 74 |
| Matt Holliday | 93.7 | 229.4 | 10.4 | 38.5 | 95 |
| Jayson Werth | 93.5 | 253.1 | 17.7 | 47.2 | 81 |
| Jarrod Saltalamacchia | 93.5 | 271.3 | 26.5 | 68.9 | 46 |
Plenty of power bats populate the list, with hard-hitting grounder specialist Christian Yelich nearly at the top of the list. Cameron Rupp can smash a baseball, but this is why we don’t blindly follow any one stat as we know that he isn’t good for much else (ditto Tyler Flowers). This isn’t accounting for overall contact rates of course, with the presence of many batters who can launch dingers but kill your average.
What this can do is allow you to validate certain hot streaks when it comes to power, as it’s what I personally banked on to hold with Danny Valencia before his torrid past week. That’s not meant to be a promise that it always translates, but perhaps some are thinking that Eric Hosmer is getting lucky since he hasn’t really performed this well before. Not so fast, as hitting the ball this well and this fast correlates with better batted-ball luck. Create that good fortune!
Most 100+ MPH Exit Velocities With >10 Degree Launch Angle
Over the Past 30 Days
| Amount of Events | Players | Notes |
| 27 | Khris Davis | He’s been mashing, so this isn’t surprising. |
| 24 | David Ortiz | This retirement party is the place to be. |
| 22 | Matt Kemp | Career May OPS: .683, Sept. next worst month: .825 |
| 21 | Freddie Freeman, Miguel Cabrera | Neither is lost at the dish, can still bring it. |
| 20 | Josh Donaldson, Chris Carter, Evan Longoria, Manny Machado | All noted strong swingers. Longoria may surprise, but he’s selling out some plate discipline for pop gains thus far. |
| 19 | Edwin Encarnacion | Slow starter, but the pop is all too real. |
| 18 | George Springer | A healthy Springer is a slugging Springer. |
| 17 | Ian Desmond, Corey Seager, Andrew McCutchen, Robinson Cano, Yoenis Cespedes, J.D. Martinez | The shortstops might surprise you, but don’t take them lightly. |
| 16 | Nick Castellanos, Gregory Polanco, Wil Myers | All three are “breakout” types continuing to charge the ball. |
| 15 | Nelson Cruz, Mike Trout, Adam Jones, Hunter Pence, Maikel Franco, Mike Napoli, Mark Trumbo, Todd Frazier, Kyle Seager | Strong bats up-and-down, nothing too wild. |
Last 30 Days Hard-Hit Rate Leaders
Before we begin, the first name that will appear, Joey Votto (51.0%) deserves some discussion. He is definitely making hard contact, but as his owners know, the results are not coming in. Is this simply bad luck?
He’s batting .226 in the past 30 days to go with this league-leading hard-hit rate. Well, his OBP and SLG have risen in May while his average has fallen, which aligns with his increased fly ball rate in May (while grounders have held steady). I believe in him, as his May splits have his pull rate falling from 45.3% to 30.0%, meaning he’s finally starting to spray the ball a bit more. This points to his natural swing more so than a crazy pull hitter who is getting pounded inside, which created many struggles. This isn’t the place to drone on about him, but this sounds like a good idea for when May ends.
| Player Name | Hard-Hit Rate | Notes |
| Joey Votto | 51.0% | See above |
| David Ortiz | 49.4% | Yup. |
| Corey Seager | 48.8% | Young buck is really buckin’ |
| Mike Trout | 48.8% | Hi Mike. |
| Mike Napoli | 47.3% | Healthy, can bring the power. |
| Jackie Bradley Jr. | 46.3% | He’s good, but he’s not this good. |
| Victor Martinez | 46.2% | Will be interesting how body holds up, but many rates aligning with his amazing 2014 season. |
| Evan Longoria | 45.3% | Harder swing means harder hits, but more Ks also. |
| Justin Smoak | 44.6% | Manufacturing some of that lofty .418 BABIP. |
| Michael Conforto | 44.3% | Hard-hit rate leader vs. RHP (52.0%), still LHP struggles (22.7%, albeit in only 28 PAs). |
| Josh Donaldson | 43.9% | Bringer of hard hits. |
| David Wright | 43.9% | Batting .189 in the past 30 days to go with this. |
| Curtis Granderson | 43.5% | A .158 BABIP in May, with a 32.4 K% despite an 8.0% swinging strike rate, should bounce back. |
| Brandon Drury | 43.0% | Locked in, enjoy. |
| Albert Pujols | 43.0% | Early bad luck stabilizing, .304 BABIP in May. |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 42.9% | Shocker. |
| Kris Bryant | 42.7% | Shocker x2. |
| Miguel Sano | 42.6% | This year’s average not buoyed by last year’s .396 BABIP (.317 this season), but power is real. |
| J.D. Martinez | 42.1% | Buy low window: closed. |
| Jake Lamb | 41.8% | Still a RHP platoon, but doing quite well in that capacity. |
| Mark Trumbo | 41.7% | Enjoying his new digs. |
| Charlie Blackmon | 41.5% | Back to normal after unlucky start + injury. |
| Carlos Santana | 41.5% | He’ll never have a high average, but has powerful swing. |
| Yasmany Tomas | 41.4% | Coming around in Year 2, walk rate up with modest fly ball rate gains. |
| Joc Pederson | 41.2% | Streaky as heck, but makes very strong contact. |
| Brandon Belt | 41.2% | As long as his health stays, so will the production. |
| Matt Carpenter | 41.0% | Continuing to give some contact for some power, and it’s working. |
| Trevor Story | 40.9% | He’s legitimate, accept it. |
| David Freese | 40.8% | Ignore. |
| Daniel Murphy | 40.8% | He’ll regress a bit of course, but his ground ball rate is down a whopping 16% thus far, meaning more hard-hit balls are liners and fly balls, leading to the notable stats. |
Notable Names - Last 14 Days Hard-Hit Leaderboard
Just a few guys who are towards the top in the last 14 days.
Jung Ho Kang: 46.4% - He’s come back on the scene with authority, owners should be encouraged.
Yan Gomes: 46.4% - His batting average in his last 30, and last 14, games is exactly .154. That seems odd. His BABIP was .227 in April, and it’s a laughable .143 through May thus far. So his increase in hard hits has come with a further drop in batted ball luck. Yes, hitting many fly balls and striking out a lot can hurt your luck profile, but not like this…not like this.
Adam Jones: 46.3% - Hopefully you didn’t cut ties with him.
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