Just think, next week’s piece will be released just as the All Star Break is hitting. My how time flies. You know how this song goes by now. We’re ignoring the guys who have been dropped due to legitimate struggles and discussing the rest.

40% ownership is the line that we like to toe with the hopes that many of these guys are available, at least intermittently due to others trying to get away with streaming the lot of them. Let’s get to the latest reports on these fellas.

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Starting Pitcher Waiver Wire Targets - Week 14

A.J. Griffin (TEX, SP) – 33% Owned – Noooope, not buying it. His 2.93 ERA has a 3.61 FIP, 4.45 xFIP and 4.24 SIERA behind it. His 9% swinging strike rate really doesn’t back a “strikeout-per-inning” pitcher as his surface stats show. He also faces Boston in Fenway Park next, so that’s a pass.

Adam Conley (MIA, SP) – 33% Owned – Conley wrapped up June with a 3.53 ERA on the month, tallying 37 strikeouts across 35 2/3 innings and limiting opponents to a .209 batting average. Okay, we’re listening. SIERA still isn’t his biggest fan, as it sits at 4.41 on the season against his 3.90 ERA, but at the very least he appears to be a solid streaming candidate who has really succeeded at home recently (one earned over his last three starts – 19 2/3 innings). He faces the Braves next, on the road, before a home matchup against the Reds.

James Paxton (SEA, SP) – 30% Owned – Paxton was hit hard again, as his BABIP remains at an insane .411 through 40 1/3 innings this season. His 2.96 FIP and 3.76 SIERA say that his 4.24 ERA should definitely be lower, as he’s still inducing swinging strikes and grounders at a healthy clip while limiting walks and homers. Hopefully his luck bounces back in short order for when he hits the road to face the Royals on July 7.

Blake Snell (TB, SP) – 29% Owned – Another tough week for the top prospect, as he’s now 1-3 with a 3.86 ERA and 5.31 xFIP, holding a 14:14 BB:K ratio over his last four starts since being recalled on June 16. That’s not okay, especially when walks were an issue for him in the Minors. He has a solid chance of being great one day, but he needs to figure this out ASAP. At least he gets a home matchup against the Angels next on July 7, but he could really use a great start to reorient himself here.

Jon Gray (COL, SP) – 29% Owned – Everyone probably knows that I’m a total Jon Gray fanboy at this point, but I swear he looked again against Toronto in his last start. That’s not an easy draw in Coors Field of all places, and yet he retired 12 in a row at one point before Josh Donaldson and Edwin Encarnacion got to him in the sixth inning. No shame in getting beat by those two, though it is worth noting that he’s now allowed a homer in seven straight starts after going five straight without surrendering one. He faces the Dodgers on the road on July 3 next before a home date against Philly on July 8.

Alex Wood (LAD, SP) – 29% Owned – Wood was transferred to the 60-day DL on June 29, meaning he won’t be available to come off until the very end of July. That said, he’s still a nice stash for those who don’t have the “premier” stash options available. Before getting hurt he had put together a great stretch, striking out 50 in 35 1/3 innings with a 2.80 ERA (2.54 FIP, 2.19 xFIP) since making a mechanical adjustment in his windup.

Kevin Gausman (BAL, SP) – 28% Owned – Gausman battled against Seattle, doing enough to get another quality start on July 1. He struck out seven in six innings, flashing that swing-and-miss upside of his. His 1-6 record is a horrible reflection of the strikeout-per-inning guy who also limits walks. If he can lower that 1.54 HR/9 rate, then watch out (though history indicates it’ll probably remain fairly high – career 1.17 rate). He’ll face the Dodgers next in a July 6 road start.

Bud Norris (LAD, SP) – 28% Owned – The hype train has left the station. Norris now gets to pitch for the Dodgers, which most importantly means he gets some solid run support. He’s also really just been good lately, bringing his hard hit rate down nearly eight percent from May to June, resulting in a 2.04 FIP on the month! Strikeouts are up, walks are down, and ownership is skyrocketing. He will take on the Orioles at home in his second start as a Dodger on July 6.

Daniel Mengden (OAK, SP) – 22% Owned – Mengden finally got his first Major League win after flirting with a no-hitter against the Giants, though it was also his third quality start in a row. He now has a 2.81 ERA with a 3.90 SIERA, though it’s worth specifically noting that his 10.3% swinging strike rate backs the strikeout-per-inning stuff that he’s dishing out. He faces the Pirates on July 3 in the spacious confines of Oakland before hitting the road to face Houston on July 8.

Matt Moore (TB, SP) – 22% Owned – Moore has now logged a quality start in three of his last four outings, racking up 27 strikeouts across 26 2/3 innings in the process (while also only allowing two homers). He hasn’t faced easy teams either (vs. HOU, vs. SF, @BAL and vs. BOS), so I’m willing to give him some serious credit as being “locked in” right now. We’ve seen what he’s capable of when he’s feeling good on the bump, so he makes for a good play at home against the Angels on July 4.

Junior Guerra (MIL, SP) – 22% Owned – Guerra now holds a 5-1 record with 60 strikeouts, a 3.25 ERA and 1.07 WHIP through 69 1/3 innings. That’s pretty impressive, especially with his last two starts resulting in 15 strikeouts across 15 innings of two-run ball where he’s only walked three. His 4.14 SIERA says to cool out a bit, but he’s certainly worth speculating on in deeper leagues despite a tough draw against the Nationals in Washington on July 4.

Jake Peavy (SF, SP) – 18% Owned – Peavy had been on quite the run before dealing with some truly horrendous luck in his last outing in Oakland, which appeared to really rattle him. Not to make excuses, but it was still just one start and the guy still posted a 3.29 ERA for the month of June. His soft contact rate jumped by 5.2% from May to June, as he really seems to have turned a corner. He faces Colorado at home on July 4 before a home date with Arizona.

Cody Reed (CIN, SP) – 12% Owned – The good news is that Reed has struck out 15 in 12 innings through his first two starts. The bad news is that the big southpaw has also allowed 15 hits (three homers) and five walks in that same span. Some more good news? He’s dealing with a .400 BABIP and holds a 3.45 SIERA behind that 6.75 ERA (yes, very small sample size I know). His upside is worth speculating on in deeper leagues (certainly in keepers), though he faces the Cubs next on June 29 in a tough draw.

Ervin Santana (MIN, SP) – 13% Owned – So now Santana has allowed only five earned runs across 18 2/3 innings (three starts) since making a mechanical adjustment in his windup. He’s walked five against 11 strikeouts and allowed only one homer in that stretch as well. Yes, two of the games came against the Yankees, but the latest was a strong showing against the Rangers. He gets a plus matchup against Oakland at home next on July 6 for those of you who want to take advantage of a forgotten name.

Robbie Ray (ARI, SP) – 12% Owned – He’s dealing with a blood blister but is expected to make his next scheduled start against the Giants at home on July 3 anyway. Do note this if you’re relying on him to work deep into the game though, as blisters can be fickle monsters. His last four starts have seen him dole out a 10.08 K/9, 1.44 BB/9, 3.60 ERA and 2.56 FIP (3.06 xFIP), meaning he’s probably feeling pretty good right now. His last start against the Phillies was done in by a .450 BABIP despite a zesty 60% groundball rate, so I’m siding with poor luck in that one. He’s a hot grab right now.

Jose Berrios (MIN, SP) – 11% Owned – We said last week that his last two outings on June 17 and June 23 were a good start towards getting a call-up. Well, he outdid himself by pitching seven innings of one-hit ball, walking only two with six strikeouts in his latest start. The Twins have to be warming up to the idea of giving him another crack at the Major Leagues soon.

Tom Koehler (MIA, SP) – 9% Owned – Well, his being bumped up a day to face the Tigers instead of the Braves was extremely rude. He had been doing quite well up until that start (which held a .533 BABIP for him), but he’s still a recently-hot hand worth riding in deeper leagues as he draws a road start against the Mets on July 4.

Tyler Anderson (COL, SP) – 9% Owned – Anderson continues to impress, as he now has a 2.66 ERA backed by a 2.98 SIERA (2.32 FIP, 2.61 xFIP) through his first four starts as a Major Leaguer. Of course, he hasn’t registered a win yet (thanks, Colorado), but he has struck out just over a batter per inning while inducing grounders at a wild 60% clip. That means you, the fantasy owner, need to pay attention. He’ll face the Giants in San Francisco on July 4 next before a home date against the Phillies.

Chad Kuhl (PIT, SP) – 7% Owned – Kuhl doesn’t have ridiculous fantasy upside thanks to his mediocre strikeout stuff, but the quality start that he just turned in against Oakland shows his blueprint for success. Pitching for Pittsburgh never hurt anybody either, with their solid defense and usually healthy run support helping him along. He lines up for a tough road start against the Cardinals next though, so one can probably do better.

Jorge De La Rosa (COL, SP) – 6% Owned – He has logged 32 innings since he lost his spot in the starting rotation, and in those 32 innings he’s only allowed seven earned runs. He’s clearly feeling very confident on the mound, and believes in himself again after ditching the hitch in his windup. It would be wise not to over-invest, but at 6% owned the 35-year-old Coors Field pitcher probably doesn’t have many suitors anyway. He faces San Francisco on the road on July 6 next as he seeks out his fourth straight quality start.

Sean Manaea (OAK, SP) – 4% Owned – He looked solid in his first start back off of the DL, pitching 5 2/3 innings of shutout ball at home against the Giants on June 29. He has struggled with consistency in his rookie season, but he does appear to be making strides. He’ll test his mettle against the Twins on the road on July 5 next, hoping to bring his 5.40 ERA down closer to his 4.50 SIERA.

Wade LeBlanc (SEA, SP) – 2% Owned – Well, LeBlanc has pitched well enough to at least bounce Nathan Karns from the rotation for now. He’s turned in two quality starts in a row for the Mariners now, only walking one batter in each outing. His opponents haven’t been easy either, taking on St. Louis and Baltimore at home thus far. He does have a .156 BABIP through these first two starts, as his 4.24 SIERA cautions against falling in love too much though this does make for a nice comeback story. He’ll face the Astros on the road on July 6 next.

John Lamb (CIN, SP) – 1% Owned – He did well against the Cubs, allowing only two runs over six innings of work. That’s impressive by any measure, and he now has a 3.09 ERA and 1.23 WHIP dating back to the beginning of June. His 27 strikeouts in 35 innings in that span aren’t going to kill anyone’s K/9 either, though the one win is a shame, but Cincinnati will do that (rather, their bullpen will). He faces Washington in a tough road test on July 3 before a road date with Miami on July 9.

Brandon McCarthy (LAD, SP) – 1% Owned – His first start of the season comes on July 3 against the Rockies at home before he’s slated to face the Padres at home later in the week. He’s worth looking at in deep leagues, particularly for those who need WHIP relief.

Jeff Hoffman (COL, SP) – 1% Owned – Hoffman is “pretty close” to a call-up according to manager Walt Weiss, and has now allowed two runs in each of his last three starts, totaling 26 strikeouts against only two walks in the same timeframe. He appears ready for the next level of competition, so it’ll be interesting how Colorado handles their rotation with the return of Tyler Chatwood also imminent (Eddie Butler is definitely out).

 

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