RADIO
Welcome one, welcome all, to this look in at the leaderboard for hitter’s average exit velocity as of the beginning of April 19. Hopefully you've already read about hard hit rates, if not please click this!
This is going to be a quick hitter, and some of these names can be presented with little comment. Some are quite intriguing though, and may back some hot starts that are being written off. Do be aware that we’re investigating this with around 25-35 “hit ball events” for each batter so take it all with a grain of salt, but the context for some of these guys is fascinating.
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Average Exit Velocity Leaderboard Through April 19
Mark Trumbo (BAL, 1B/OF): 96.2 MPH – Trumbo is having a very good start to 2016 and this number is no outlier. The question is whether this is one of his usual hot starts or sustainable for the whole year. His career OPS in April is .851, in May it’s .902, and then the next highest is a .749 in July. Be aware, but I’m in on him.
Miguel Cabrera (DET, 1B): 96.1 MPH – Yeah, this guy can still swing the lumber. Hopefully you listened and didn’t doubt him coming into 2016.
Ryan Howard (PHI, 1B): 96.1 MPH – Well, no one ever really questioned his raw strength, but his 29.8 K% is still horrid. His fly ball rate the past three seasons has been between 36.7% and 37.6%, but this year it’s 53.6% and so the four homers and poor average make sense.
Carlos Gonzalez (COL, OF): 95.8 MPH – When he’s healthy he is one of the best hitters in the game, and you’re seeing it.
Domingo Santana (MIL, OF): 95.8 MPH – Intrigue! Santana only has one homer and a .245 average, but is hammering the ball and actually walking more and striking out less (14.0 BB% and 21.1 K%). This is a very encouraging start for the 23 year old outfielder.
David Ortiz (BOS, 1B): 95.4 MPH – Ortiz hits the ball hard? Ho-hum. The retirement tour is supercharged indeed.
Anthony Rendon (WAS, 2B/3B): 95.0 MPH – Well, Rendon has zero homers, zero steals, and a .265 average. Should you be buying? He’s smacking the ball but he’s also missing it significantly more thus far, with his usual swinging strike rate being around 5.3% and thus far in 2016 its 8.0% which coincides with a drop in contact being made on pitches in the strike zone (89.0% to 84.9%). Tentative buy for me.
Christian Yelich (MIA, OF): 94.9 MPH – Yelich’s bat is red hot and he’s drawing a ton of walks. Yes, they’re still going to be mostly ground balls, but there’s some more pop to them. Yelich owners might want to send Barry Bonds a fruit basket.
J.J. Hardy (BAL, SS): 94.6 MPH – Hardy has had a powerful career but hasn’t enjoyed success since 2013. At 33, he is starting off hot with improved plate discipline (in 39 plate appearances of course). His two homers were Pesky Pole cheapies, but he is still hitting the ball hard overall. I wouldn’t trade for him, but if he’s a free agent or you’re wavering on whether he’s “for real” this season, here’s some additional context.
Nelson Cruz (SEA, OF): 94.6 MPH – Nellie can mash, next.
Yasmany Tomas (ARI, OF): 94.5 MPH – Tomas was sought after by Arizona for a reason, and his two homer game the other day might be the starting gun to a nice 2016 for Tomas.
Danny Valencia (OAK, 3B/OF): 94.2 MPH – A preseason favorite of mine after a strong 2015, but I’ve seen many cut ties after an uninspiring start, prompting the “fluke” label. Valencia is still smacking the ball and is actually walking more and whiffing a lot less so far with what would be a career-best zone contact rate. The A’s offense isn’t encouraging, but Valencia is doing well underneath it all.
Carlos Correa (HOU, SS): 94.2 MPH – This is shocking, clearly a fluke, ignore in all formats.
Ryan Braun (MIL, OF): 94.1 MPH – He’ll get his rest days, but he’s only 32 and can still be the Hebrew Hammer we saw last year even if the 24 steals aren’t replicated.
Mike Moustakas (KC, 3B): 94.0 MPH – His four homers thus far are real, his .217 average backed by a laughably bad .167 BABIP is not. Go buy yourself some Moose Tacos.
Jose Altuve (HOU, 2B): 94.0 MPH – We’ve known the man can hit, but the four homers thus far are pretty exciting alongside six steals. He won’t hold a .314 ISO, but the power gains from last season appear to be sustainable.
Tyler White (HOU, 1B/3B): 93.8 MPH – His 26.5 K% needs to chill out as his average will drop down as the BABIP falls from its current .423, but the four homers and the liners we’ve seen are legitimate. His strong spring to earn this job wasn’t luck.
Jorge Soler (CHC, OF): 93.8 MPH – Kyle Schwarber’s injury opens the door for Soler to prove his worth. His .207 BABIP won’t hold, but the improved strikeout rate masks a career-worst 15.6% swinging strike rate, so he’s still whiffing. Still intrigued for sure though.
Logan Forsythe (TB, 2B): 93.8 MPH – He’s hitting the ball hard, but swinging and missing a lot more and walking less. Don’t cut bait on the .220 average yet.
Melvin Upton Jr. (SD, OF): 93.6 MPH – He did hit .278 in 144 second half at bats last season and he may be a free agent in many leagues. He’s worth speculating on in case he’s recaptured some of his former glory at age-31.
Bryce Harper (WAS, OF): 93.5 MPH – As if.
David Freese (PIT, 3B): 93.5 MPH – He’s performing admirably but these are mostly grounders and Jung-ho Kang should return soon and relegate him to part time.
Manny Machado (BAL, SS/3B): 93.4 MPH – These.
Giancarlo Stanton (MIA, OF): 93.4 MPH – Guys.
Josh Donaldson (TOR, 3B): 93.4 MPH – Can.
Nolan Arenado (COL, 3B): 93.3 MPH – Hit.
Colby Rasmus (HOU, OF): 93.3 MPH – He’s always been able to crush a ball, it just always comes in streaks. Ride the wave and hope the greatly improved walk rate and reduced whiffs continue.
Nick Markakis (ATL, OF): 93.2 MPH – Doesn’t have any homers to show for it, but he does lead the league in doubles with nine (next best has six). He’s been a consistently good at making contact his whole career, and if he continues to be a strong gap hitter then there’s value to be had.
Eric Hosmer (KC, 1B): 93.2 MPH – So far his zone contact rate sits at 94.8% (2015: 89.6%) and his rate at swinging at pitches out of the zone is 23.0% (2015: 32.7%). Last year was great for him and if he makes further improvements then that’ll be just dandy.
Trevor Story (COL, SS): 93.2 MPH – Most know he can send a baseball far, but the worry is how often he swings and misses. That is who Story has been for a while now, and it’s reasonable to expect it moving forward. A huge fly ball rate, a strong HR/FB rate thanks to his strength, and plenty of whiffs. He’s a legitimate hitter though, don’t get it twisted.
DJ LeMahieu (COL, 2B): 93.0 MPH – LeMahieu’s jump last year came largely thanks to his “spray to all fields” approach and his speed. It’s extremely doubtful he continues this early homer pace, but he is continuing to lay off bad pitches and then pounce with a compact swing on those in the zone. This looks real and his average could very well sit in the .300s all year.
