Here we go again with the latest edition of the SP Waiver Wire guide, where we plead with the fantasy baseball gods to grant us the wisdom and opportunity to unearth gold, or at the very least not pick up a ticking time bomb. In other words, we're looking at sabermetrics and utilizing the ol’ eye-test to analyze some low-owned options who can help you, and others who look helpful but are just waiting to stab you in the back.

We’re getting dangerously close to the halfway mark of the season, and harsh decisions have to be made. It is imperative to be able to distinguish between a lucky stretch and the beginning of some sustainable growth. Let’s see what’s out there, ignoring the guys who have been dropped due to legitimate struggles. The bar sits at 40% owned, and it pains me that James Shields (52% owned) is on more teams than these guys.

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Starting Pitcher Waiver Wire Targets:

James Paxton (SEA, SP) – 39% Owned – J-Pax now has 29 strikeouts in 22 innings and has posted three consecutive quality starts. He has a 2.98 SIERA behind that 2.86 ERA of his, as he appears fortunate to somehow have danced around a gaudy .403 BABIP and low 67.1% strand rate. His WHIP should stabilize as less of those batted balls fall in for hits, so enjoy the show. His next start is in Detroit on June 21, which isn’t the prettiest matchup, but does make for a good test.

Julio Urias (LAD, SP) – 39% Owned – Urias is really starting to shine and the strikeouts are coming out to play. In his last three starts he has struck out 22 in only 14 1/3 innings, allowing only three earned runs in the process. Unfortunately, he hits his pitch count of about 85 pitches rather quickly and has yet to record his first Major League victory (though he deserves a few). He’ll face the Nationals at home on June 22 next.

Jon Gray (COL, SP) – 37% Owned – Every additional week that I have to write about Gray adds an wrinkle my face. He has now tallied five straight quality starts, with eight of his last nine outings resulting in a QS (he’s gone 4-3 in the process). His 3.32 SIERA is tied for tenth in Major Leagues with Madison Bumgarner and David Price. What would you do if those two were owned this low? Coors can’t hurt a stock this much, c’mon.

Doug Fister (HOU, SP) – 34% Owned – Another week, another quality start from Fister. He just beat the St. Louis Cardinals on the road, allowing only two solo homers, and he’s now has posted a QS in 10 of his previous 11 starts. He hasn’t lost a game since April 25 (6-0 since)! Yes, there’s good luck involved here, but has been very skilled at inducing soft contact in the past and outpitching his peripherals. I know that his 4.80 SIERA is leagues above his 3.26 ERA, but back to the previous point, his 2.41 ERA in 2014 had a 3.93 SIERA behind it. He had a 6.48 FIP in April, but had a 4.13 FIP in May and has a 3.96 FIP in June, so much of that SIERA tilting may have come from his early struggles. Be aware of the bigger picture, but he’s hard to write off right now.

Cody Reed (CIN, SP) – 31% Owned – Reed went seven strong innings in his Major League debut, striking out nine while walking four and allowing two two-run homers as he settled into his big league threads. His strikeouts show the upside here, as he’s certainly capable of being a strikeout-per-inning type and also pitches in the NL. This certainly earned him another turn, which will come against the Padres at home on June 24.

Kevin Gausman (BAL, SP) – 30% Owned – Gausman predictably struggled against the Red Sox on the road, but he still holds a 3.95 SIERA behind that 4.14 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. His 2.43 BB/9 shows steady control, and it’s coupled with 57 strikeouts in 63 innings so he can miss some bats too. Unfortunately, he will face many teams like Boston and Toronto in difficult parks, with Camden Yards not being the best place for a guy with a 1.57 HR/9 either. Be careful with the matchups, but he’s still got fantastic tools underneath it all. He faces the Rangers on the road on June 20 next before a home start against the Rays.

Tim Lincecum (LAA, SP) – 29% Owned – Lincecum’s debut with the Angels saw him notch a win over the A’s in Oakland (cushy matchup) with six strong innings and two strikeouts. This will certainly create a spike, but keep expectations tempered as he learns to work with less (~90 MPH fastball). He’ll face the A’s again at home on June 23 next, so at least he gets another plus matchup.

Anthony DeSclafani (CIN, SP) – 22% Owned – He was pulled early after racking up 76 pitches in only the third inning against Atlanta on June 15. He gets a tough draw on June 21 on the road against the Rangers next, but hopefully we’ll see some of the upside that he flashed towards the end of last season. Keep an eye on his strikeout to walk ratio, as his control was the X-factor to his impressive home stretch last season.

Clay Buchholz (BOS, SP) – 22% Owned – Buchholz is reentering the rotation after posting a 2.89 ERA in five appearances out of the bullpen. He’ll take on the ice-cold White Sox on June 22 at home, so those in AL-only or deep-mixed formats can give him a spin if you want to chase the upside we saw last season.

Hyun-Jin Ryu (LAD, SP) – 21% Owned – Ryu hit his 60-pitch quota through four scoreless innings in his first rehab start since experiencing renewed soreness. He allowed three hits and one walk with five strikeouts, which is certainly an encouraging sign. His recovery window puts him roughly on course for a post-AS Break activation.

Dan Straily (CIN, SP) – 21% Owned – Straily fell apart against the Braves on June 16, as it appears a little regression came his way. He holds a 4.57 SIERA behind that 3.66 ERA and 1.19 WHIP, as a low .239 BABIP is helping limit the hits despite a 4.00 BB/9 rate. He can’t keep issuing free passes and then banking on balls being hit at defenders. He’ll take on a hot Rangers team in Texas on June 22 next.

Adam Conley (MIA, SP) – 19% Owned – Conley once again showed that he has a plus-ability to miss bats as he only allowed one hit over 5 2/3 innings against Colorado on June 17, though he did walk five. He should still be approached with caution as he’s quite inconsistent, and his 4.16 FIP in June is his highest monthly mark yet (3.83 FIP in April, 3.57 FIP in May). He does get a favorable matchup against the Braves at home on June 22 next though, avoiding a rough Cubs series in the process.

Brandon Finnegan (CIN, SP) – 21% Owned – Finnegan has logged a quality start in four of his last five starts, posting a 2.41 ERA/3.76 FIP/5.09 xFIP in that timeframe. He still has a 5.35 K/9 and 4.01 BB/9 through those five starts as well, with a .247 BABIP helping his cause so I’d suggest going elsewhere. He’ll take on Houston on the road on June 19 next before a home date against the Padres on June 25.

Archie Bradley (ARI, SP) – 21% Owned – He continues to show that his upside is still fantastic, with many good offerings in his arsenal. Unfortunately his control just isn’t here yet, despite his first few starts hinting at it. His start against the Dodgers was going well before it got away from him in the sixth inning, as he left a few too many pitches in the sweet spot of the zone. He’s still struck out nine or more in three of his past four starts, but he needs to show consistency from here on out. He’ll hit the road to face the Phillies on June 19 before a date with the treacherous Coors Field on June 24.

Zack Wheeler (NYM, SP) – 19% Owned – The target date for his return is now after the All Star Break so he can reenter the rotation with a consistent routine, though it might be a six-man rotation if Bartolo Colon sticks around (as it looks like he should). Wheeler is building up the strength in his arm and getting his pitch count up. Monitor his K:BB ratio through his rehab starts, but he remains a nice stash.

Lucas Giolito (WAS, SP) – 15% Owned – Giolito struck out another seven in his most recent outing at Double-A. He has now only walked one batter in each of his past three starts, striking out 27 in his past 18 innings. If he keeps this up then it really shouldn't be long before they deem him worthy of some Major League coffee. A pitcher's K:BB ratio is very important in the minors when it comes to looking at their chances of Major League success, so this bodes well.

Alex Cobb (TB, SP) – 12% Owned – He threw some live batting practice on June 18, and should be ready to rock when July rolls into August should no setbacks occur.

Christian Friedrich (SD, SP) – 12% Owned – Friedrich’s last 30 days: three wins, 30 strikeouts, 3.44 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and three quality starts. Four out of five of those stats are nice, one of them really doesn’t belong. Unfortunately, his high WHIP points to his control issues and is what calms any potential hype here. His next start is against Cincinnati on the road on June 23 though, so deep league streamers can chase that matchup if you’re desperate.

Junior Guerra (MIL, SP) – 11% Owned – Guerra still owns an 11% swinging strike rate even if the strikeouts haven’t been flowing lately, though streamers should probably go elsewhere. After posting a 2.85 FIP in May he has really hit a snag in June, posting a 6.19 FIP through three starts thus far. He does get a good matchup in Oakland on June 22, so deep leaguers could do a lot worse.

Alex Reyes (STL, SP) – 8% Owned – Reyes bounced back in his last outing, going five strong innings in which he surrendered only one run on two hits and three walks with nine strikeouts. As always, the control is what needs cleaning up, but the strikeout upside and a spot on the Cardinals makes him a tantalizing option for when he gets the call.

Tom Koehler (MIA, SP) – 6% Owned – Some may see his four straight quality starts and be tempted, but write him off because they’re so used to ignoring him. I will say that his slider usage has increased lately, his soft contact rate has skyrocketed to 29.8% in June from 18.3% in May, and he’s got a solid 23.9 K-BB% through June as well. His 2.30 FIP and 2.94 xFIP in June are strong too, as his .326 BABIP for the month shows he isn’t getting wildly lucky. Except for schedule, that is. His four straight quality starts came in these matchups: @ATL, NYM, @MIN, @SD. He now faces COL on June 19 before a home matchup against the Cubbies, so that slider and his newfound control will be tested.

Jake Peavy (SF, SP) – 6% Owned – Peavy’s season long starts are terrible, but he’s logged quality starts in four of his past six starts, with the two non-QS outings coming against the Cubs and Cardinals. Those are two starts that streamers shouldn’t have chased anyway, so it appears that Peavy is back in NL-only and deep-league streaming territory. He’ll face Tampa Bay on the road on June 19 next before a home matchup against the Phillies, so he’s viable.

Tyler Anderson (COL, SP) – 5% Owned – Anderson made his Major League debut with a nice matchup against the Padres (though it did come at Coors), pitching 6 1/3 innings of one-run ball with six strikeouts. He now faces the Marlins on June 19 before a home date with the D-backs on June 24.

Daniel Mengden (OAK, SP) – 2% Owned – His line in Double-A this season: 23 innings (four starts), 2-0 record, 28 strikeouts, 0.78 ERA and 1.17 WHIP.

His line in Triple-A: 45 1/3 innings (seven starts), 3-1 record, 39 strikeouts, 1.39 ERA and 0.84 WHIP.

First ML Start @CIN: 5 2/3 innings, two earned runs on six hits and four walks with five strikeouts.

Second ML Start vs. TEX: 6 1/3 innings, one earned run on four hits and one walk with seven strikeouts.

His next start comes at home against the Brewers, making him a solid deep-league streamer in the friendly confines of O.co.

John Lamb (CIN, SP) – 2% Owned – Lamb now has a 2.66 ERA and 1.23 WHIP through four June starts, though his 4.14 FIP and 4.50 xFIP on the month still suggest caution. Cincinnati won’t get him a ton of wins, but he does face the Padres at home next on June 23 so deep-league owners could do worse.

Jorge De La Rosa (COL, SP) – 1% Owned – Damn shame about Chris Rusin hitting the DL with a shoulder strain, but now De La Rosa gets a chance to show that his mechanical adjustments are for real. Since ditching his little hesitation in his windup he has gone 13 innings, allowing one earned run on six hits and two walks with 11 strikeouts. Yes, his early-season woes were awful and he still pitches in Coors, but he’s still a capable starter worth considering. He faces Miami on the road on June 20 before a home date against the D-backs on June 25.

 

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