Smoothly transitioning from yesterday's top four tiers to today's best of the rest, let's start my overvalued/undervalued list with a player who recently snuck up from tier 5 to tier 4 and thus snuck his way into this column.

Editor's note: Be sure to also check out our 2016 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. It's already loaded up with tons of great rankings articles and draft analysis. Aside from our tiered staff rankings for every position, we also go deep on MLB prospect rankings, impact rookies for 2016, and dynasty/keeper rankings as well. Bookmark the page, and win your drafts.

 

2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings Analysis: Outfield (Lower Tiers)

Gregory Polanco

Polanco was all the rage early in 2014. Scouts raved about him, and he was going to burst onto the fantasy scene. He started out hot, batting .288 with 2 homers and 4 steals in his first 19 games. But, in July, August, and Sept/Oct, he hit .214, .225, and .179 while striking out way too much. In 2015, he struggled a bit in the first half, batting .237 with 3 homers. In the second half, he batted .276 with 6 homers. While this may not look promising, Polanco will be 24 this year and stole 27 bases this year. He has shown signs of increasing power and an ability to increase his batting average, and at his age, power should increase.  His 41 doubles + triples could easily turn into extra home runs. Plus, as his plate discipline improves, and he gets on base more, he should also steal more bases given the extra opportunities. He could project to a Yelich-esque line (lower average, possibly slightly more speed and power without the back issues), but he is ranked five spots lower by my peers. A .275/15/90/60/30 line is not unreasonable with room for power upside.

 

Wil Myers

Myers should not be mentioned without addressing his wrist issues; they very well could be chronic and have kept him off the field for a large part of the last two years. Nevertheless, as I stated in other pieces, this is the portion of the draft where I am willing to gamble. The flipside of the wrist injuries is that his true performance may be much greater than he's shown if healthy. And playing first base full time may help him stay healthy. Myers is only 25, and San Diego, while still not great for righty power (23rd), is not the severe pitchers' park that many think it is because the fences were moved in. If he stays healthy, .260/25 with 15 steals is reasonable, with the ability to put up more average and power. After all, his 162 game averages are .256/19/88/81/11 and those stats were posted from ages 22-24 and include Tropicana Field in Tampa, which is even worse for righty power (26th); thus, one could easily see room for improvement on these averages.

 

Mark Trumbo

I wrote about Trumbo in my first-base rankings piece, and since then it is looking even more like Trumbo may be the number 5 hitter for the Orioles. Fifth is a nice spot in a lineup that ranked 9th in the majors in runs last year and looks to be improved. Camden Yards ranked 10th for righty homers last year. Trumbo has played large majority of his games in Anaheim (22nd), but also played in Seattle (25th) and Arizona (18th). Thus, he should benefit from Camden Yard. He has career 162 game averages of .250/31/74/96 despite these previous parks. Even the past two years, coming off his three big years in Anaheim, his 162 game averages were .251/26/70/88. A .260/30/75/90 season is not out of the question with potential to do more. He is being drafted way too lowly.

 

Carlos Beltran

Beltran will be 39 this year. I don't like that. What do I like? That aside from an injury-plagued 2014 and early 2015, which bookmarked elbow surgery, he has consistently been very good. Moreover, he rebounded in the second half last year showing signs that he is healthy again. And the Yankees scored the second most runs in baseball, which is good for his run production. Beltran is past his days of swiping 40 bags; in fact, you'll be lucky if he steals you a few. But he can be a solid four-category performer. In the second half, Beltran posted .292/12/37/36 in 67 games. While he likely won't play all 162, those numbers still project to .292/29/89/87 over a full season. I wouldn't expect that, but if he comes close, he is great value as he should come cheaply. Just as is the case with Werth, you can drop him if he isn't panning out because he won't cost as much as someone like Holliday, who shouldn't give any better performance.

 

Jayson Werth

First, the negatives: Werth will be 37 most of the year. Werth was injured last year and hit .227. Werth did not steal a single base last year. He has battled injuries throughout his time in Washington. Now, the positives. From 2012-2014, he posted 162 game averages of .303/21/96/89/13. And the worst of those years was 2012. It's possible that Werth doesn't bounce back, but then you can drop him and grab someone else. In this range, it's hard to find a true five-category threat, and Werth has the potential to be one. It's a bit confusing to me how he is rated so much lower than a Matt Holliday who is a similar age, and likewise is coming off a down, injury-riddled year.

 

Evan Gattis

Gattis will be 30 this year, is coming off sports' hernia surgery, has never stolen a base and has a .250 career average. Even though he will likely be a source of power, he will do little else. Players such as Osuna, Trumbo, Beltran, and Myers are all being ranked after him, but they could easily equal or surpass his power and have more upside in the other categories. Based on the recent surgery combined with the skillset, I'm expecting regression from Gattis as opposed to reasons for better years from the aforementioned players.

 

Outfield Tiered Fantasy Baseball Rankings (March)

Rank	Tier	Name	Brad	Max	Kyle	Nick	Harris	Jeff	Bill
1	1	Mike Trout	1	1	1	1	2	1	2
2	1	Bryce Harper	2	2	2	2	1	2	1
3	2	Giancarlo Stanton	4	3	3	3	3	3	4
4	2	Andrew McCutchen	3	5	4	4	4	6	3
5	2	Jose Bautista	8	6	6	5	5	7	5
6	2	George Springer	6	7	5	6	6	9	7
7	2	Mookie Betts	5	4	9	7	7	5	10
8	2	A.J. Pollock	7	9	8	8	11	4	6
9	2	Starling Marte	10	8	7	12	10	8	8
10	3	J.D. Martinez	9	12	10	9	8	12	11
11	2	Ryan Braun	13	10	11	11	13	10	9
12	3	Justin Upton	12	11	12	10	14	13	13
13	3	Charlie Blackmon	11	14	13	13	19	15	14
14	3	Lorenzo Cain	17	18	15	16	12	11	12
15	3	Nelson Cruz	18	15	16	15	9	16	16
16	3	Carlos Gonzalez	19	16	19	18	18	18	18
17	3	Adam Jones	15	20	21	14	23	19	15
18	3	Jason Heyward	14	17	17	20	16	22	21
19	3	Carlos Gomez	21	13	23	19	22	14	19
20	3	Kyle Schwarber	22	19	14	21	15	25	17
21	3	Yoenis Cespedes	20	21	20	17	17	20	20
22	4	Yasiel Puig	16	23	18	23	25	21	24
23	4	Hunter Pence	34	22	22	22	32	23	23
24	4	Jacoby Ellsbury	26	32	41	30	20	24	25
25	4	Curtis Granderson	29	33	28	27	28	30	26
26	4	Alex Gordon	23	31	29	35	26	35	29
27	4	Kole Calhoun	28	24	30	34	31	33	28
28	4	David Peralta	35	25	24	25	38	29	32
29	4	Christian Yelich	27	36	35	28	21	32	36
30	4	Brett Gardner	39	26	27	32	33	31	31
31	4	Corey Dickerson	25	28	32	26	37	54	22
32	4	Adam Eaton	37	37	26	24	34	28	39
33	4	Michael Brantley	56	27	37	40	27	17	27
34	4	Joc Pederson	41	41	25	37	24	34	35
35	4	Matt Holliday	43	30	31	29	43	45	30
36	4	Gregory Polanco	32	29	42	42	44	26	36
37	4	Shin-Soo Choo	42	35	38	31	30	39	40
38	4	Billy Hamilton	33	40	55	51	29	27	34
39	5	Michael Conforto	40	34	40	47	36	37	42
40	5	Josh Reddick	31	43	36	39	53	38	38
41	5	Hanley Ramirez	24	48	44	33	45	44	46
42	5	Stephen Piscotty	48	39	39	36	39	52	44
43	5	Randal Grichuk	49	44	34	38	54	43	45
44	5	Matt Kemp	36	45	45	41	52	36	41
45	5	Jorge Soler	63	38	46	49	40	46	33
46	5	Dexter Fowler	44	42	43	44	47	53	43
47	6	Ben Zobrist	30	52	33	56	55	64	50
48	6	Delino Deshields	50	49	49	46	41	60	53
49	6	Ben Revere	57	51	58	53	42	42	48
50	6	Billy Burns	38	54	48	59	50	55	55
51	6	Kevin Pillar	58	55	53	48	49	49	51
52	6	Steven Souza	52	56	47	45	46	56	61
53	6	Gerardo Parra	45	50	59	52	56	48	60
54	6	Evan Gattis	51	47	57	43	57	72	49
55	6	Ender Inciarte	68	46	56	54	61	51	47
56	6	Wil Myers	74	60	66	57	35	40	58
57	6	Marcell Ozuna	47	57	51	60	65	58	57
58	6	Jayson Werth	60	59	50	70	67	50	52
59	6	Khris Davis	46	62	54	55	58	62	62
60	6	Melky Cabrera	53	53	60	65	69	63	54
61	7	Mark Trumbo	54	78	73	58	59	42	74
62	7	Aaron Altherr	65	69	87	69	88		65
63	7	Colby Rasmus	62	75	67	63	51	61	72
64	7	Jay Bruce	67	70	69	50	64	66	69
65	7	Carlos Beltran	70	67	64	62	70	47	66
66	7	Odubel Herrera	64	63	61	61	86	67	56
67	7	Byron Buxton	72	76	70	73	48	59	70
68	7	Brad Miller	59	66	52	71	71	71	76
69	7	Cameron Maybin	79	64	63	64	72	70	59
70	7	Eddie Rosario	69	61	68	78	68	68	67
71	7	Aaron Hicks	66	68	72	66	78	69	63
72	7	Rusney Castillo	75	58	65	72	89	57	68
73	8	Danny Valencia	61	65	71	68	80	81	73
74	8	Denard Span	73	73	88	76	60	65	71
75	8	Domingo Santana	71	71	62	74	66	76	87
76	8	Brandon Moss	76	77	77	67	74	74	64
77	8	Nori Aoki	77	72	82	80	62	75	88
78	8	Kevin Kiermaier	78	84	80	82	73	73	80
79	8	Hyun-soo Kim	55	92	75	77	-	85	92
80	8	Marlon Byrd	80	79	76	85	84	80	75
81	9	Yasmany Tomas	97	74	83	75	81	78	82
82	9	Brock Holt	79	83	78	86	94	91	79
83	9	Derek Dietrich	80	96	74	87	-	88	81
84	8	Chris Colabello	93	82	86	79	75	90	86
85	9	Eduardo Escobar	-	88	79	89	-	84	89
86	9	Austin Jackson	72	95	95	83	76	87	95
87	9	Jackie Bradley Jr.	96	97	85	88	77	77	90
88	9	Nick Markakis	87	91	94	91	79		93
89	9	Franklin Gutierrez	95	100	91	81	-	79	91
90	9	Leonys Martin	94	93	96	94	63	93	94
91	9	Mark Cahna	98	89	84	109	83	86	78
92	9	Andre Ethier	85	87	89	90	99	83	96
93	9	Dalton Pompey	86	80	81	102	87	97	98
94	9	Jarrod Dyson	106	81	93	84	85	94	-
95	9	Alex Rios	88	90	102	98	96	-	84
96	9	Avisail Garcia	-	85	100	103	82	-	97
97	9	Rajai Davis	100	-	97	92	-	89	-
98	9	Desmond Jennings	99	86	103	100	90	92	-
99	9	Josh Hamilton	91	94	-	99	91		100
100	9	Anthony Gose	-	102	98	105	93	96	77
101	9	Preston Tucker	107	99	90	97	-		83
102	9	Oswaldo Arcia	-	105	-	107	100	82	85
103	9	Chris Coghlan	84	103	99	93	-		101
104	9	Michael Taylor	89	102	92	108	95	98	99
105	9	Adam Duvall	90	104	106	101	92	99	-
106	9	Coco Crisp	92	106	107	106	98	95	-
107	9	Rymer Liriano	105	101	101	104	-	100	-
108	9	Will Venable	-	108	109	95	97		-
109	9	Nomar Mazara	103	-	108	96	-	-	-
110	9	Angel Pagan	102	99	105	110	-	-	-
111	9	Abraham Almonte	104	-	-	-	-	-	-
112	9	Seth Smith	101	107	104	111	-	-	-

 

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