RotoBallers, as always, we’re constantly trying to come up with new features that will help you dominate your fantasy leagues. Recently, we’ve built a tool that identifies the biggest trends in contact rate over the last seven days. The tool can be found here. Keep in mind, any statistic being viewed in such a small sample size will never be incredibly predictive on a granular level. But if any stat can be looked at over seven days, it's contact rate which stabilizes very quickly.

What this tool provides is a quick indicator of players who might be on the rise, coming out of slumps, seeing the ball better, etc. If we know who is seeing and hitting the ball better as of late, even if it’s just a seven-day period, then we at least have a start in figuring out whether you should be buying or selling on that particular player. This particular article will focus on three contact rate risers and two fallers, and make an attempt to determine how you should treat each player. Due to the nature of the often-refreshed contact rate tool, you may sometimes see players listed in this article who are no longer in the top % of risers/fallers (but was within the last few hours). Let's get rowdy.

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Contact Rate Risers

Travis Shaw, BOS (3B)

Season Contact Rate: 77%; Last 7 Contact Rate: 93%

Looking at Shaw's stats in standard leagues over the last two weeks would show you you that he is in the midst of quite a slump, with a .147 BA, .237 OBP, and zero HR in 34 AB. But advanced stats tell us this slump is not as terrible as it looks. In the month of June, Shaw's K% is five points lower than his season average, while his BABIP is at a lowly .206. For as good as a hitter as Shaw has shown he can be, this BABIP is absurdly low. His Hard% this month is currently 35.3, higher than April or May, but his GB/FB ratio has sky rocketed and is hitting more than 50% ground balls in June. Why is that? Well after looking at Shaw's Heatmaps, I have noticed that over the first two months of the season, Shaw was owning the inside of the plate and lower portion of the strike zone.

 

But since the beginning of June, if you look at his pitch location heatmap, you will notice that pitchers have begun to avoid the inside of the strike zone and have began targeting outside and even up out of the strike zone against Shaw.

 

This seems to be a simple case of teams generating successful scouting reports on a relatively new hitter. Despite the recent BA trouble and lack of power, Shaw is still showing a great eye at the plate, and is putting the bat on the ball. I have no doubt that he will adapt, and his solid contact will start landing in the grass and/or bleachers again. The dip in fantasy production has created a nice buy-low opportunity if his owner in your league has become impatient.

Russell Martin, TOR (C)

Season Contact Rate: 73%; Last 7 Contact Rate: 88%

Russell Martin was having a terrible start to 2016, hitting only .150 with zero HR after April. But he began picking it up in May, and now is officially hot. Over the last two weeks, Martin is hitting .308/.487/.538 with two HR and a 9:6 BB:K ratio. Generally such a quick spike in production could classify as a sell high opportunity, but Martin has far too long of a track record to back up this current heater he is on. Even while mashing with a .200 ISO and .909 OPS in June, his BABIP still is unimpressive, sitting at .250 this month. We all knew that the Blue Jays offense would not stay quiet all season, and Martin is no exception. He is finally getting on base, and seeing the ball very well, which will lead to countless scoring chances in the high powered lineup from Toronto.

Like Shaw, the fantasy numbers have created a great buy low opportunity for Russell Martin as well. It may be harder to do so in this situation due to where his current owners likely drafted him, but if you are able to dangle a Matt Wieters or Stephen Vogt-type catcher as bait, you will reap the benefits as the season progresses.

Yunel Escobar, LAA (3B)

Season Contact Rate: 84%; Last 7 Contact Rate: 98%

Yes, you read that correctly, Yunel Escobar owns a 98% contact rate over the last seven days. The guy has only struck out 31 times this season, and only nine over the last four weeks. Unfortunately, not much has come of this fantastic contact, however. During this 98% week, he has hit just two XBH, both being doubles. For the season, he has gone yard only three times and is o-2 on the base paths. If you are in desperate need for BA help in a roto league, or are in a categories league that counts doubles, Escobar can make for a nice waiver wire addition if still available. But in most other instances, he makes for a much better real-life player than a fantasy asset, especially playing at the hot corner.

 

Contact Rate Fallers

Byung-ho Park, MIN (1B)

Season Contact Rate: 68%; Last 7 Contact Rate: 52%

Whew, this is getting ugly. Including his lone hit in yesterday's contest, Park has one hit in his last 19 AB, with nine strikeouts and only one walk. For the season, he is just barely over the Mendoza line, and is at 69 strikeouts in just 196 AB already. This sets him up nicely for a 200 K campaign in his first season in the MLB. Once again we will head to the heatmaps to see what's been contributing to this steep decline, and as you can see, MLB pitchers were heavily testing Park with pitches right over the heart of the plate for the first two months of the season. From the looks of his AVG/P map over the same period of time, and evident by the nine HR he accumulated, Park was up to the challenge.

 

But fast forward to the beginning of June, and now the pitchers have quickly adjusted to their approach, and Park has been unable to adjust with them. Notice the increase of pitches up in the zone, and completely out of the zone.

Like I said before, it has gotten ugly. Unlike my confidence in Shaw's ability to change his approach at the plate, I have no reason to believe that Park has the ability to overcome this brutal "slump". Sure, he's going to put a ball in the stands from time to time, but the BA woes will make it impossible to add value to your fantasy team. Not to mention he is quickly losing playing time in Minnesota, and once Miguel Sano is back from the disabled list, Park will see his AB reduce even more. At this point, there is no reason to be holding on to Park, there is more CI value on the waiver wires.

Jake Lamb, ARI (3B)

Season Contact Rate: 75%; Last 7 Contact Rate: 59%

I am not worried about this one in the slightest. Because even though he is only hitting .182 so far in June, he is already at four HR halfway through the month. He is striking out a lot, 38.0 K%, but is rocking a ridiculous .318 ISO and a 56.0 Hard% that leads the league for the month. Last season June was his worst month of the season in terms of BA, and also was his only month with a K% over 30. Like I said, no need to worry here, just sit tight and enjoy the power surge despite the dip in contact. It will all even back out.

 

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