Champ or Chump: What to Make of Billy Burns, Pablo Sandoval, and Albert Pujols

June 26, 2015

Rick Lucks analyzes Billy Burns, Pablo Sandoval and Albert Pujols to see who will have continued success in the 2015 season and which players will see a regression for the rest of the year.

Lately I feel as though I have discussed many pitchers in this space, so let's switch it up a little. This week, I will be discussing all people with bats.

I'll also order the players in traditional batting order format: a fast guy will lead off, a contact guy will hit second, and a middle of the order power bat will be third.

Real batting orders have more slots, but few teams fill them entirely with fantasy relevant options and the stereotypes are not as strong for the seventh hitter as they are towards the top of the lineup anyway. Enough explanation, lets begin.

Billy Burns (OF, OAK)

Burns can run, and no one has ever disputed this. Burns was also generally seen as a possible starter in Oakland's outfield this season, and generally speed + playing time = excited fantasy owners. Yet Burns got almost no hype because it was widely believed he could not hit, the next in a long line of speedsters with no baseball ability like Esix Snead and Joey Gathright. Burns, however, disagreed, and has backed up his position with an impressive .320/.363/.415 triple slash line in a little over a month of playing time. Skeptics will call your attention to his BABIP (.371) and tell you that his success won't last even if his speed can buy him base hits. I'm skeptical of the skeptics.

My skepticism of the skeptics is rooted in Burns' extensive minor league history of sky high BABIPs. In over 400 A-level PAs in 2012, Burns posted a BABIP of .387. The following year, Burns had a BABIP of .349 at High-A, with a .381 BABIP in a 138 PA taste of Double-A. His BABIP slumped slightly under .300 in his first exposure to Triple-A last season, but rebounded at that level in 101 PAs this season (.378). His current BABIP is justified, and even suggested by, his minor league history.

More granular data is not available for minor league numbers, but we do have it for his major league performance. He hits balls on the ground at an above average clip (48.1%), ideal for his skill set and conducive to elevated BABIPs. His BABIP on flies is a weak .098 (average is .207), so he is not experiencing any luck there. Indeed, his 30.2% IFFB% indicates that there may actually be bad luck on balls in the air - though he wants as many grounders as possible. His .659 on line drives is just shy of league average, no correction necessary. He does hit liners at a high 25.3% rate, but given his elite minor league BABIPs he may be able to sustain an elevated number. His groundball BABIP is .359, supported by both elite speed and minor league precedent. His BABIP may regress slightly, but .340-.350 seems reasonable for him, especially with a home park that has artificial surface.

His minor league stats also indicate that he may be able to improve upon his currently dreadful 4.7% walk rate, which was 10.5% at Double-A just last season and well into double digits in the lower minors. His current K rate (14.9%) and SwStr% (7.7%) are both very good. He is also a high percentage base thief, with 15 bags against three CS this year and 74 for 81 in his best minor league campaign (2013). At the top of the lineup, he figures to help with runs scored too. Overall, there is a lot to like here.

Verdict: Champ

Pablo Sandoval (3B, BOS)

Part of the general malaise that has befallen Boston this season is dissatisfaction with their new Panda, who currently sports a triple slash line of .279/.329/.416 with six homers and 24 RBI. Despite this, the average is consistent with career norms (.271 last year), and nothing seems out of place with his .306 BABIP. His HR pace also projects to land in his usual 15-18 range, and his 10.3% HR/FB matches his career mark perfectly. He is hitting a few more grounders (48.4% vs. 43.5% career), but it is not a huge spike. He walks never (4.9% BB rate), but that is not new (6.1% career). He rarely strikes out (14% K). Apparently his defense has not been up to snuff, but most fantasy owners don't care about that. He is on pace for a career average season, why all the negativity?

Batting order. Batting order is the sole reason that Sandoval is disappointing fantasy owners in 2015. Playing on San Francisco clubs where a .280 average and 15 HR qualified as one of the best hitters on the team, the Giants generally hit Panda third or fourth in the order where RBI opportunities abound. Boston has more established hitters in Papi and Hanley Ramirez, relegating Sandoval to fifth or sixth on most days. That is too far down to take advantage of the high OBPs at the top, and the players above have been particularly poor at reaching base this year. That leaves Sandoval on a pace to maybe crack 70 RBI when owners expected 100. Ouch. While the problem could be solved by moving Sandoval up in the order, Boston has no real reason to do that. Fantasy owners need to live with Sandoval's new slot.

Sandoval is also posting some wonky splits, but I do not think they mean anything. He has a .921 OPS at home, but only a .626 mark on the road. He hasn't been in Boston long enough to like it that much, and BABIP data suggests that he has been lucky at home and unlucky on the road, evening out overall. Likewise, he has a .350 BABIP as a left-handed hitter and a paltry .118 from the right side. This has led to him hitting just .082 vs. LHP and toying around with giving up switch-hitting despite a .260 career average against lefties. Seeing breaking pitches from the same side for the first time ever is not likely to go well, .313 average in L vs. L match ups (16 PAs) notwithstanding.

Overall, Sandoval is having an average season with fewer RBI due to batting order placement and uneven luck. He would be so much more attractive with a career norm in RBI, but since that is not on the horizon Sandoval will become the third Boston player to be labelled a chump in this column.

Verdict: Chump

Albert Pujols (1B, LAA)

The best hitter in baseball for over a decade, the Angels were panned for paying for his decline years. Pujols does not think he's done yet, however, posting a robust .277/.339/.581 triple slash line with 23 HR so far this season. People are reacting to this as if it came from nowhere, but his .272/.324/.466 last year (with 28 HR and five SB) was far from bad. Actually, 30 HR with an average that didn't kill you probably won a few fantasy titles last year. This year, the 23.5% HR/FB screams regression and that is all many analysts want to talk about. Hiding underneath that number is an increased amount of fly balls (41.9%, up from 35.4% last season) that will still keep his bombs above last year's pace after the expected regression. Last year was already 28, his 23 this year still count, and he'll be on a 30 HR pace the rest of the way? Sign me up!

Moreover, there is evidence that some faucets of Pujols' game have been unlucky thus far. His current BABIP stands at just .232. While he has morphed into a relatively low BABIP guy, .260-.270 should still be the norm. He is also pulling the ball less (51% last year, 44% this), which should discourage the shift and elevate overall BABIP. His LD rate has been pathetic (17.9%), and it should normalize to his 19% career mark. Can you believe with how good this guy's prime was that he was always a below average line drive hitter? That blew me away while researching this piece. Finally, lefties have held him to a .211 average. Pujols is right handed, and has scorched lefties for a .322 career average. Why is that so low? You want to say that age robbed him of something, fine - his career mark vs. RHP is .312, this year .296. Those 16 points could definitely be lost to age. But 100 points with a platoon advantage? I think not. That number should correct, and I would not want to be a LHP when it does.

There are also minor improvements to Pujols' game. His BB rate is up slightly to 7.7% (6.9% last season), while his K rate is down to an elite 9.4% figure. He hits for power and strikes out less than 10% of the time! His 6.4% SwStr% justifies rarely striking out, and his contact rates are consistent year over year. He also gets to share a batting order with someone named Mike Trout, so that's a good thing. Only one word describes Pujols even as he gains in years:

Verdict: Champ

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