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Turning Two: Can Anyone Hit .350?
Welcome back to our fourth edition of Turning Two. We've now discussed who will hit 50 HR, who will win 20 games, and who can put up a 20/20. Last week's topic was fairly common year over year, so let's tackle a real challenge: hitting .350.
Hitting .350 is a daunting task. Hell, .330 is an amazing feat. Remember when Tedd Williams hit .406 in 1941? Of course you don't (unless you're at least 75, then I say thanks for reading pops!). Given the advances in baseball (relief pitching, defensive shifts) it takes a rare breed of player to overcome the odds and reach .350, let alone tinker with the idea of .400.
Since 2000, thirteen players have achieved an average of at least .350. Ichiro Suzuki has done it four times in that span! But since 2010, only one player has had such a season (Josh Hamilton; .350 in 2010). Chances are, JB and I will go 0-for-6 in our picks. There's no fun in that pessimism, so let's take some swings at this topic and hope we strike gold!
Have a subject you want discussed? Send us a note via Twitter to RotoBaller (@RotoBaller), Max (@Max_Petrie) or JB (@JBsFantasyHelp) and let us know!
JB's Three
Joey Votto (CIN, 1B) Hands down, the best plate discipline in baseball. In 2015, Joey Votto led the league with a career high 20.6 BB%, and his .427 wOBA ranked second. But we're not here to talk about drawing walks this segment, so lets talk about his bat. Votto-matic owns a career .311 AVG, which ranks fourth in the league since his arrival in 2006. He hit .314 in 2015, marking his sixth season over the .300 mark. His superb plate discipline allows Votto to square up balls almost perfectly, as he rarely gets poor contact. His career IFFB% (infield fly ball) is an unbelievable 1.5%, and his 9.8 Soft% in 2015 was second in baseball.
During the past five seasons, pitchers have started to realize that you can't mess around with off speed pitches against Votto. Bottom line; he's not going to chase anything out of the strike zone (league low 19.3 O-Swing%). This has led to a steady increase in fastballs. In 2015 he saw a career high 61.9 FB%, which was the 12th highest in the league. The top portion of this leader board is generally reserved for speedsters that pitchers are unwilling to issue a free pass to. The uptick in the cheese is a perfect scenario for Votto, as he has a career 246.7 runs above average (wFB) against fastballs, ranking second in the MLB during the span.
Joey Votto is my top pick to hit .350 because of what we saw in the second half of last season. After the All-Star break, he hit a ridiculous .362, including .405 in July. During this time he had a 27.1 LD%, went up the middle 40.4% of the time, and had a Hard% of 43.3. All of which are essential ingredients for a high average. Did I mention he hit .331 versus southpaws? This pick is not speculative, it is going to happen.
Max: I love this pick. Votto is the epitome of a professional hitter in that he goes to all fields with power and has a keen eye at the plate. As JB mentions Votto led baseball with a 20.6 BB % which means he's honing in on pitches he can handle and letting the dirt pass. His strong second half (.362) led numerous fantasy baseball teams into the playoffs and he showed no major signs of regression in 2015.
If there's a concern with Votto, it's the lack of support in the lineup. With Todd Frazier shipped out of town it will be up to Brandon Phillips and Devin Mesoraco to provide Votto with protection. I'd gander pitchers are willing to test their luck with either of those bats over giving Votto good pitches to hit. If Mesoraco can bounce back and be a formidable cleanup hitter, Votto will have a chance to finally reach .350.
A.J. Pollock (ARI, OF)
Pollock is another fantastic contact hitter. His 192 hits in 2015 were fourth highest in the league and came with only 89 strikeouts. His 1.74 GB/FB ratio was a career high, which with his speed translated to more hits. He increased his Oppo% by almost six points, and his Hard% by more than three. Pollock saw an unusual amount of sliders, one of only 17 players to see a 20.0 SL%. He obviously managed just fine by the look of his .315 average, and actually posted a 3.9 wSL (22nd highest). This number should lower back down closer to his 17.9% in 2014, which should mean more fastballs, which he was top 20 in the league against.
Much like my first pick, Pollock finished the season on fire. For the second half, he hit .335 with a 22.3 LD% and a lowly 10.4 K%. But the main case to be made for Pollock hitting .350 was not receiving enough luck in 2015. His .315 AVG, seventh highest in the league, came with only a .338 BABIP (26th highest). That ratio doesn't quite add up. A big reason could have been the decrease in his infield hit percentages.
In 2014, Pollock owned a 13.2 IFH% but saw that number almost cut in half, down to 7.2%. You know who else had a 7.2 IFH%? Nelson Cruz. You want to know a player who had a higher IFH% than that? J.D. Martinez. During the second half it was even worse, dipping down to a laughable 3.3%, which was lower than James Loney and Kyle Schwarber. Obviously, with his wheels, Pollock does not belong anywhere near these slow pokes, and should return to his 2014 IFH numbers in 2016. This, plus another year's experience, could be just enough to bump Pollock over the .350 mark.
Max: Pollock had a breakout campaign in Arizona, but I can't agree that he'll reach .350. We'll start with the good news. His average increased to .315 even though his BABIP dropped by six points (.338), his strikeout rate dropped, his walk rate increased, his line drive and hard contact rate increased, and he went to the opposite field more (.372 AVG). OK, got that out of the way. Ready for the bad? His .315 AVG was a career-high across all levels, a number that was inflated by a blistering hot July-August stretch where he hit .360. His plate discipline is solid (.367 OBP), but he doesn't have the plate profile to reach .350 at that pace. The only .350 hitter with an OBP under .400 was Ichiro, who had 50 infield hits that year. A.J. Pollock had 19 in 2015. I love Pollock as a hitter, but he doesn't have the makeup to reach .350.
Christian Yelich (MIA, OF)
This is easily my favorite pick. Have you ever looked at Yelich's batted ball stats? They are amazing, beautifully strange, and rowdy all at the same time. He owns a career 3.86 GB/FB ratio, which is easily the highest in the league since his rookie season in 2013. In 2015, he took it a step further and raised it to 4.16. Yes, more than four ground balls per every one fly-ball. The next closest was Dee Gordon at 3.19. Obviously, his 62.5 GB% also led the league, but he was still able to manage a 22.5 LD%. You can do the math in your head, very few fly-balls. In fact, Yelich owned the lowest IFFB% in MLB, with a modest zero point zero. That's right, he hit zero infield fly balls.
Its not as if Yelich is slapping soft grounders to first base, either. His 40.5 Cent% was fifth highest among all players, and out of the top five, his 32.8 Hard% was the highest. He was keeping the ball on the ground, but hitting it hard, and hitting it where there happens to be no defenders. His .300 average in 2015 does little justice to the potential numbers Yelich can reach. The beginning of the year was a rough start for the youngster, including a back injury that led to a DL stint in April. But following the theme of all three of my picks, Yelich was a hitting machine is the latter half of the season. After the All-Star break he ranked fifth in the league in average (.342) with a league leading 30.3 LD%. Oh, and he only struck out 36 times. If these numbers don't equate to a massive average boost in 2016, then I don't know what does.
Max: When JB told me he was picking Yelich, I had my doubts. He makes a solid case for Yelich reaching .350 too, but I'm just not sold. Yelich is a fantastic player and truly is a hitting machine. His 4.16 GB/FB ratio was ridiculous while his 15.0 % FB % was the lowest in baseball. Yelich is the new three-outcome hitter: groundball, line drive, or strike out. And the strikeouts are why Yelich will not reach .350. Take a look at the previous hitters to reach .350. Only one of them had a K% higher than Yelich's 19.2 %, and that's Manny Ramirez. Ramirez was a very different hitter than Yelich and had some, ahem, help in his quest. Yelich limited the strikeouts significantly in his strong second half, but I'll need to see him put it together for a full 162 before I proclaim him a future member of the .350 club.
Max's Three
Miguel Cabrera (DET-1B) Still a bit shocked JB left me with arguably the favorite for this topic. Miguel Cabrera has been a mainstay in the average leaderboard for years. His .333 average since 2010 leads baseball (next closest is Buster Posey at .312) and he's only had one season under .324 since 2009. He's come close to cracking .350 before; he hit .344 in 2011 and .348 in 2013.
One of the factors that sways me to Miggy is his plate presence. His .440 OBP was third and 15.1% BB % was seventh in baseball. Walks don't help us reach .350, but I'll take a free pass over a swing at junk outside the strike zone. His O-Swing % dropped five points in 2015 while his line drive rate increased (28.9%) and he went to the opposite field more often (33.5%). The addition of Justin Upton is only going to help Cabrera's chances, forcing pitchers to give Cabrera pitches to hit. The last time Cabrera hit over .340, Prince Fielder was his cleanup hitter.
If there's one concern, it's the health. He'll turn 33 this season and had a calf strain limit him to 119 games. Miggy has shown us he is plenty durable though, as his 5250 PA since 2008 rank fourth in baseball. If he stays healthy, he's the best candidate to crack .350.
JB: Obvious pick here. Since 2003, Miguel Cabrera leads the league with a .321 average. 2015 was no exception for the half man-half machine, as his .338 BA led the league. Two things worry me: his age, and a little too much luck. Last season, Miggy was 32 years old, and his body finally broke down. He was placed on the Disabled List for the FIRST time in his career. After the All-Star break, he limped to "only" a .316 BA. Now a year older, it could've broken the injury seal, and there's no telling how those old hams are going to hold up.
In 2015, Miggy had a BABIP of .384, the second highest in the league. Three years ago when he just barely missed the .350 BA mark, his BABIP was a much more reasonable .356. If he is maxing out the BABIP-O-meter and still falling short of .350 BA, then there's no way he's hitting the mark a year older, with a banged up lower half.
Jose Altuve (HOU, 2B)
After Miguel Cabrera and Joey Votto, this was my third pick for this topic. Altuve had a breakout year in 2014, hitting .341 over 707 plate appearances. He wasn't able to maintain that success in 2015, hitting .313 in 689 PA. His chances of repeating his 2014 numbers were done in by a rough May when he hit .231. Take that month out of the equation and he hit .330. In addition he hit .289 against RHP, a major drop from his .319 BA in 2014. His career average versus RHP is .287, so '14 may have been a bit fluky.
If there's one flaw to Altuve reaching .350, it's his new found power at the plate. His 15 HR were a career high, but they led to an increased pull rate, a lower ground ball rate, and less line drives. This isn't to say he is doomed if he doesn't abandon the power; he hit .337 with seven HR in the second half. It's just not the ideal route for a player of his skillset. He doesn't walk a lot either, which will hurt his chances. The last player to hit .350 with an OBP below .400? Ichiro Suzuki. If Altuve can revert to his 2014 ways, he's got a chance at .350.
JB: If this was the beginning of the 2015 season, Altuve would be the best pick in this article, as he was coming off a .341 performance in 2014. He still had a great season this past year, coming second in the league in hits. But he definitely has become a different hitter than what we saw in 2014, mainly portrayed by his sharp decrease in GB/FB ratio. He went from 1.60 in '14 down 1.33 in '15. His LD% was down almost five percent, while his fly balls were up almost six percent. This new trend isn't going to help his average at all obviously, as he owned only a .196 BA on fly balls. The new approach at the plate led to 27 less singles and seven less doubles, in exchange for seven more HR. He is going to the opposite field at a very low rate too, as his 19.1 Oppo% was eighth lowest in the league and tied with slugger Ryan Howard.
Altuve has become the top fantasy second baseman and can contribute in all five categories, but this extra power he is chasing comes at the expense of his average which will prevent him from reaching .350 in 2016.
Dee Gordon (MIA, 2B)
Are you ready for the ugliest .350 season ever? The sabremetricians who call for abandoning the bunt must not enjoy watching Dee Gordon play. Gordon led baseball with 205 hits in 2015, culminating in a .333 average. He led baseball with 36 infield hits while his 3.19 GB/FB ratio was second only to teammate Christian Yelich. The probability of an out is higher via a groundball than a line drive or fly ball, but traditional thinking is thrown out the window when you have wheels. Gordon's 7.3 Speed Score was fourth in baseball, which helps explain his ridiculous .383 BABIP.
The key with Gordon is pitchers do not want to give up a free pass, as his 58 SB led baseball. This leads to a plethora of fastballs (66.5%; second in MLB) in which Gordon rarely misses (5.86% Whiff rate). He goes to all fields effectively and showed no signs of slowing down last year; he hit .338 and .327 in the first and second half, respectively. Should Gordon reach .350 in a rather unconventional way, Brian Kelly may have a stroke.
JB: Gordon had a great season in 2015, leading the league with 205 hits. He cut down his fly balls to a career low 18.7%, and went to the opposite field at an impressive 31.4% rate. He saw an exceptionally high number of fastballs (66.5%) as pitchers are absolutely unwilling to issue this guy a free pass. Even with the high number of fastballs, he managed to hit off speed pitches very well also, as his 12.8 wCH was best in the league. His previous high was 3.6, and has only posted a positive value against the pitch two times in his career. So expect that to dip back down closer to his average, which should negatively affect his BA.
Another outlier from 2015 was how well he hit southpaws. He hit .350 against them with a crazy .403 BABIP, compared to his career average .284 BA. Another stat that should get closer to the career average and bring down his average. I may be one of the few not concerned about Gordon's .383 BABIP from 2015. He posted almost the identical BABIP in AAA in 2011, with the exact same .333 BA. The problem I do have is that there is no way it is getting any higher, which means he shouldn't get any higher in the BA department, either. The .333 BA we saw this past season is the max expectation I have for Gordon in 2016.
