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It's easy to hyper-analyze slow starts with nearly a quarter of the season gone (for some teams, at least), but it's important to keep in mind that teams have played fewer than 20 games. That's an extremely small sample of performance, and overreactions to poor early results have left some likely to be productive outfielders on waivers.
Recognizing those opportunities can be crucial to the success of fantasy teams, and that's especially true in a shortened season with high levels of uncertainty.
Below are some outfielders worth picking up on waivers this week. Roster rates for waiver wire pickups are based on Yahoo leagues with standard 5x5 scoring, and the cutoff is 50% rostered.
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Shallow-League Pickups
Hunter Renfroe (OF - TB) - 48% rostered
Renfroe was drafted in 90% of leagues this season, but he’s been dropped in nearly half of them after a slow start. Renfroe hasn’t even looked that bad this year; in many ways, he’s actually been playing better than he has over the past few seasons.
Despite a .425 xwOBA on contact that effectively equals last season’s mark, Renfroe has posted an unlucky .200 BABIP. Even if Renfroe’s’ BABIP sat at his already low .239 mark from last season, his batting average would jump 25 points to .209. Granted, a .209 batting average isn’t anything to get excited about, but that example illustrates the absurdity of dropping a player because of 12 games with bad results. Renfroe may not turn it around immediately, but everything that made fantasy players draft him in 90% of leagues is still there, and he hasn’t been nearly as bad as his results suggest this season.
Luis Arraez (2B/3B/OF - MIN) - 37% rostered
Arraez has struggled to start the season with a .216 batting average and .529 OPS, but he’s looked a lot like the player that hit .334 with a .834 OPS last season. In typical Arreaz fashion, the 23-year-old has walked more than he’s struck out this season, and his 3.3% swinging-strike rate is ridiculously good. Arraez has popped out a little more frequently so far this season compared to last year with a 34% under % (29% last season), but that doesn’t seem like a long-term issue.
As a result, bad luck appears to be driving Arraez’s early-season slump. After posting a high but not particularly unreasonable .335 BABIP last season, Arraez has posted a .229 mark so far this season. Arraez’s BABIP should rebound over the rest of the season, and fantasy players should expect him to post a batting average near or above .300 with an OPS around .800 for the season.
Nomar Mazara (OF - CHW) - 31% rostered
Injuries and poor performance have compelled most fantasy players to drop Mazara (72% draft rate), but now that he’s finally healthy he’s worth picking up in most leagues. Mazara enjoyed the best offensive season of his career last year with a .268/.318/.469 slash line, and it came with a solid .425 xwOBA on contact and a career-high .489 xSLG.
A healthy Mazara should be able to build off of last season’s success, making an OPS above .800 a legitimate possibility. That potential makes Mazara worth picking up for outfield-needy teams.
Deeper-League Pickups
Mike Tauchman (OF - NYY) - 6% rostered
With the Yankees optioning Miguel Andujar to the alternate site and Giancarlo Stanton entrenched as the team’s primary DH, Mike Tauchman has claimed the starting left-field job in the Bronx. After breaking out with a .277/.361/.504 slash line over 87 games last season, Tauchman has looked good again this season with a .871 OPS over his first nine games. And although Tauchman probably got a little lucky with a 12.6% HR:FB despite a pretty mediocre 91.4 mph average exit velocity on fly-balls and line drives, the short porch at Yankee Stadium should allow Tauchman to maintain an above-average home run rate. Tauchman's batted balls from last season overlayed on Yankee Stadium illustrate that point.
Even though he’ll still have to fend off Brett Gardner for some playing time, Tauchman should post an OPS above .800 with close to everyday playing time for the rest of the season, making him an attractive outfield pickup in deeper leagues.
Victor Reyes (OF - DET) - 2% rostered
Cameron Maybin landed on the IL with a groin injury on July 31, and Reyes has started in all four games since then. Although Reyes has posted a poor .681 OPS for the season, there’s a solid chance that he emerges from Maybin’s IL-stint with close to everyday playing time; Reyes saw action in most games even before Maybin became sidelined.
Reyes rode a power bump to a mini-breakout over 69 games last season, posting a .304 batting average and .767 OPS. Encouragingly, Reyes’s power is up again so far this season, with his 89.9 mph average exit velocity besting last season’s mark by more than two mph. If Reyes can maintain his power gains then he’s likely to post an OPS above .800 for the season, so he’s worth picking up in deeper leagues.
Dominic Smith (1B/OF - NYM) - 3% rostered
Smith has gotten into each of the Mets’ past six games, and he appears to have earned everyday playing time with Yoenis Cespedes opting out of the season. Last season, Smith posted an impressive .881 OPS and displayed above-average power with solid contact skills. Encouragingly, Smith looks even better so far this season, hitting more fly-balls (24.4-degree average launch angle) with a slightly higher average exit velocity (89.3 mph). Smith may not be as good as he was last season after he posted a 0.032 wOBA - xwOBA, but he should post an OPS above .750 with a strikeout rate below 25% and everyday playing time, so he’s worth picking up in deeper leagues for fantasy players looking for a power-hitting outfielder.
Quick Hits
Dylan Moore (2B/3B/SS/OF - SEA) - 26% rostered
Moore has been hot to start the season with a .860 OPS over his first 10 games. Moore’s hot start has come with a power outburst including a 93.9 mph average exit velocity and a 56% hard-hit rate, but it’s come out of nowhere with the 28-year-old posting a .419 SLG over his minor league career. I’m hesitant to trust the hot start as a result, but if Moore is able to maintain his elevated power then an OPS around .850 is possible, so he’s someone to keep an eye on.
Jo Adell (OF - LAA) - 53% rostered
This one is cheating a little bit with Adell rostered in just over 50% of leagues, but the top prospect has claimed an everyday role in the Los Angeles lineup, and his exciting combination of power and speed make him worth rostering in most leagues.
Monte Harrison (OF - MIA) - 3% rostered
The Marlins aren’t likely to get back to full strength particularly soon, giving Monte Harrison more opportunities for at-bats even as he’s struggled so far this season. Harrison is fast with an average of 43 stolen bases per 162 games in his minor league career, and the 24-year-old boasts impressive raw power. Those tools give Harrison a chance of being a valuable fantasy outfielder this season, making him a potential speculative add in very deep and NL-only leagues.
Shin-Soo Choo (OF - TEX), JaCoby Jones (OF - DET), and Willie Calhoun (OF - TEX)
I wrote about all three of these outfielders last week and they’re still rostered in fewer than 50% of leagues. All three are good options in shallow leagues again this week.
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