October 1, 2016

Seth Finkelstein looks at the top NFL survivor pool picks for Week 4 of the 2016 NFL season, giving you survivor league advice for targets and avoids.

There are 31 teams that are too hard to get a grasp of, and then there’s the New England Patriots. They are the only reliable team week to week.

I think my third rule for survivor, saving the best teams until the end, is no longer viable. Each week, take the team with a favorable matchup and make it a weekly game.

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Week 3 Recap

After scoring nine points through the first two games, who could have seen the Rams scoring 37 points, or the Eagles holding the Steelers to three points? Even the Browns almost got a win (I think the Browns kicker was told to miss so they can tank and get the number one pick). It’s simply too hard to know when a team will lay an egg or score 40 points.

Last week, I hit two of my three survivor picks and nailed my two upsets, the Skins and Bills.

Week 4 Look Ahead

Week 4 kicks off with the dreadful Dolphins playing the Bengals, who are 8-19 in primetime since 2003. There is also a game in London at 9:30 a.m. Sunday between the Colts and Jaguars. The NFL loves sending awful teams to London. Wembley Stadium should hand out No Fun London t-shirts with the NFL logo on them prior to Sunday’s game. Meanwhile, there’s a huge soccer match at 9:15 that morning between Manchester City and Tottenham, one-two atop the Premier League. I wondered which event would be more popular amongst the English, so I asked my buddy from London what the English think about the upcoming game. He said he had no idea there was an NFL game taking place on Sunday.

The only storyline I care about in this Colts-Jaguars game is if the Jags lose, will head coach Gus Bradley be left behind in Heathrow?

Survivor League Strategy

1. Avoid divisional bouts

Last season in Week 2, the Saints were a sure thing lock of the year against the Buccaneers in New Orleans. Tampa Bay ended up winning, knocking many people out of their survivor contests. Also last year, the Packers were heavy favorites against the 1-7 Lions in Lambeau and proceeded to lose.

2. Avoid taking a road team

I would rather put my money on a home team with a home field advantage. The rule doesn't apply to a team playing in San Diego. The road teams fans fill up a majority of Qualcomm Stadium, making it a de facto home game for the road team.

3. Avoid using all the top teams early  Play the Matchups

I will be using the lines from sportsbook.ag for the season.

Before making any picks, look at each point spread. Vegas has the best minds, smarter than any of us, use them to get a glimpse at how each team is projected to fare that week.

Top Survivor Picks for Week 4

@Skins -7.5 vs. Browns

I think the best way to win a survivor pool is to pick against the Browns weekly. Who has a better shot at going 1-15 than them? I say the same thing weekly regarding Cleveland; they are the worst team in football, and they don’t want to win.

I’m a little scared of a Skins letdown after a huge rivalry win against the Giants. But it doesn’t scare me enough. This is the best play of the week.

@Steelers -6 vs. Chiefs

Two teams who were on opposite ends of the scoreboard last week. The Chiefs dominated, thanks in part to Ryan Fitzpatrick literally throwing the game away, and the Steelers got thrashed in the Battle of Pennsylvania. Le’Veon Bell returns to the Steelers after his three-game suspension. He adds an entirely new dimension to their high-octane offense. Even though the Chiefs have a good defense, they can’t keep pace with opponents. Alex Smith has led one touchdown drive the past two games. That won’t be good enough against an angry Pittsburgh defense on Sunday night.

@Cardinals -8.5 vs. Rams

I know the rule is to avoid divisional bouts, but this is an outlier. The Cards are 21-6 at home in the Bruce Arians era and in need of a win Sunday. Luckily for the Cards, they take on the worst-ranked offense in the league. Backed by the ninth-ranked defense, the Cardinals should have no problem stopping the deadly duo of Case Keenum and Tavon Austin. Just take a look at this rainbow off his back foot. Lucky man.

Also, David Johnson has looked terrific through three games and will shred the Rams rush defense allowing 100 yards per game.

Top Survivor Picks to Avoid for Week 4

Cowboys -3 at 49ers

This is the perplexing line of the week. Shouldn’t the Cowboys, who lost by a point to the Giants and beat the Skins and Bears, be favored by more than three over a team that is led by Blaine Gabbert? The Cowboys seem to be playing better each week. The Niners are awful, ranking 29^th in total offense and 20^th in total defense. They have been blown out the past two weeks, scoring garbage time points to make their offensive output look better than it is. The rookie duo, Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliot, have looked great. Elliot looked like a feature back Sunday, carrying the ball 30 times for 140 yards. Elliot should fare well against the porous rush defense of the Niners, who are allowing 123 yards per game.

Seahawks (pick 'em) at Jets

Stay away from this game like Rex Ryan stays away from eating fruit. How can anyone predict how the Seahawks or Jets will play in a given week? The Jets lost in a tight one in their opener to the Bengals. Four days later, Fitzpatrick looks like a magician throwing for 374 yards in a win against the Bills. But then Sunday, Fitz throws six picks and makes it seem like he never played an NFL game. Congrats to Fitzpatrick for earning the lowest quarterback grade in the history of Pro Football Focus.

The Seahawks’ only touchdown through the first two weeks was during a two-minute drill to beat the Dolphins. On Sunday they scored 37. Will Seattle even be awake for this 1 p.m. Eastern time zone game?

Russell Wilson is banged up which means Trevone Boykin may get his first NFL start. Even if Boykin starts I’d still avoid this game. There are way too many question marks.