RADIO
Is Kevin Gausman A Starting Pitcher Sleeper?
The sudden emergence of the Baltimore Orioles after a decade and a half as the doormat of the AL East is one of the more surprising recent developments in baseball. Most expected Dylan Bundy to be a linchpin for them by now after being selected with the fourth overall pick in the 2011 draft. Instead, Bundy's battled elbow problems and gotten only five outs at the major league level. Kevin Gausman, chosen fourth overall in 2012, has replaced Bundy as the most-hyped young pitcher in the organization.
Gausman got his first taste of the majors in 2013, pitching mostly out of the bullpen. While he struck out over a batter per inning and boasted a 3.77 K/BB ratio, he also gave up a ton of line drives and allowed seven homers in 47 innings. The end result was an ugly 5.66 ERA. Gausman cut that mark by over two runs last year, due in large part to allowing only eight homers in 113 innings. That kind of improvement tends to attract a lot of fantasy attention, particularly when it comes from a former top prospect being touted as a breakout candidate by team management.
So why does Steamer expect Gausman to be worse next season? Well, for one thing, he fanned hitters at a much lower rate in 2014, and walked more of them. The projection system anticipates a repeat performance in that area, but also thinks he'll give back the majority of the gains he made in limiting the long ball. What you'd be left with in that case is a pitcher more worthy of streaming than rostering.
And there are some problems with his underlying peripherals which support Steamer's bearish outlook. Gausman's line drive rate didn't improve much. Both the numbers and the eye test suggest that while his fastball is elite (averages 95 and can touch 97 with occasional horizontal break that's simply unfair), his secondary offerings leave something to be desired. The hard fastball helps set up his splitter change, but neither that pitch nor the slider have much movement to them. Gausman seems to agree, as he threw his fastball over 70 percent of the time, more than all but seven SP with at least 100 innings.
It's not impossible to succeed while relying that heavily on the heater. Lance Lynn, Andrew Cashner, and Jordan Zimmermann all flashed ERAs in the mid-2.00s while eclipsing the 70 FB% mark, after all. But both Zimm and Lynn have at least one good secondary pitch, and Cashner's fastball was one of the best in the majors according to Pitch F/X. Gausman struggled with getting ahead of hitters, especially in his second and third times through the order. Improvement in his slider would help him in these areas.
In Summary
The question is whether we can expect this improvement. One of the reasons Gausman was so highly touted was his impeccable command (1.39 BB/9) as he rocketed through the minor leagues. Granted, he relied heavily on his fastball, but he's demonstrated the ability nonetheless. I imagine he and the Orioles coaching staff will prioritize developing his slider in spring training. If he can make even modest strides and turn it into more than a show-me pitch, he'll have staying power in the rotation.
And if not, Baltimore has had great success in recent years turning struggling starters into bullpen weapons. We saw this with Zach Britton last season, and Gausman is more talented. It wouldn't be a surprise to see Gausman end up at the back of the bullpen if he can't hack it as a starter, in which case he'd still provide value. He's worth a flyer in 2015.
