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Here at RotoBaller we’ve been cranking out tons of preseason content for some time now. We might be a little obsessed with baseball ‘round these parts. But that’s okay, because so are you!
And what better way to celebrate the advent of draft season than to profile potential breakouts and busts? Last week’s series focused on players who fell into those categories in 2015 and their outlooks for this season. This week, we’ll take a closer look at the guys who are most likely to delight, or disappoint, fantasy owners in 2016. Today I take a look at three young National League outfielders who may emerge for fantasy baseball owners in 2016. Let's take a look.
Editor's Note: Be sure to head over to our fantasy baseball rankings assistant. We've released a new rankings tool so you can easily filter, sort, and export all sorts of staff rankings in one place - tiered ranks, mixed leagues, AL/NL only, top prospects, dynasty formats, keeper values and more!
2016 NL Outfield Breakout Candidates
Altherr impressed after being called up by the Phillies in August, producing an .827 OPS, five homers, six steals, and 47 R+RBI in just 39 games. His batting average checked in at only .241, and that’s unlikely to improve if he can’t cut down on a whiff rate that was north of 25 percent. He does know how to take a walk though; drawing a base on balls once every 10 trips to the dish helped him post a solid .338 OBP.
Altherr’s not getting much attention in drafts right now based on early ADP results, and he sits outside the top 60 outfielders in RotoBaller’s most recent rankings. The Phillies project to be the worst offensive club in the majors, which might depress his counting stats. However, Altherr has an intriguing blend of power and speed – 10/20 is a reasonable expectation, and there might be more HR upside if things break right – at a price worth speculating.
I've been more vocal to this point in support of his teammate Randal Grichuk, but Piscotty is going almost 100 picks later in drafts right now. He shouldn't be. Take a look at the batted ball distance leaderboards over at Baseball Heat Maps. There's Piscotty just outside the top 10, sandwiched between some guy named J.D. Martinez and the reigning AL MVP, Josh Donaldson. (Also Howie Kendrick, which...what?) Then consider that Piscotty posted this mark while hitting nearly 60 percent of his fly balls to the opposite field. Then note that Piscotty, per FanGraphs' Mike Podhorzer, posted a fairly remarkable .350 xBABIP.
Small sample size? Yes. Fluke? I’m not so sure. Piscotty did make a conscious effort to alter his swing mechanics in the offseason in order to tap into more power. So far, at least, it appears to be working. Steamer is skeptical, of course, but that's based almost entirely on his good but not great minor league numbers. There's certainly enough upside here to justify taking a flier in the late rounds.
Soler stumbled out of the gate last season and never really recovered, ultimately turning in an underwhelming .262/.324/.399 line with 10 homers in 101 games. His strikeouts spiked while his power disappeared, and he looked overmatched at times, particularly against breaking pitches. His 67.8% contact rate was 207th of 211 hitters with at least 400 PA, and his swinging strike percentage was higher than all but seven of those players. So the problem here isn't exactly hard to identify.
Despite the drastic reduction in power, Soler's batted ball data holds plenty of reason for optimism. When he did manage to get wood on the ball, Soler generally crushed it. Nearly 28% of his batted balls were line drives, and his 35.9% hard-hit rate put him in the top 30 among everyday players. This would seem to support his .361 BABIP, which kept his production from completely cratering.
Steamer does anticipate some regression but also a rebound in his power and strikeout rate. Given the improvement Soler had already begun to show in his plate discipline in the second half and postseason, this seems like a smart bet. He’ll have plenty of opportunities to both score and drive in runs no matter where he hits in the Cubs’ stacked lineup.
Update: Soler is now expected to platoon in left field as Kyle Schwarber, Dexter Fowler and Jason Heyward are all in the outfield mix. The surprising resigning of Fowler changes Soler's playing time outlook, but we still like his potential if he finds his was into at bats.
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