Week 11 NFL Matchups Analysis: Start/Sit for Fantasy Football (Part 1)

Welcome to Week 11 of NFL and fantasy football action, RotoBallers.

Each week of the NFL season, we will be breaking down each of the NFL matchups and providing you with some fantasy football advice and lineup recommendations based on matchups that we love, matchups that we hate, and some high-risk/high-reward players, as well.

Below, you will find our Week 11 NFL matchups & fantasy football start/sit analysis, which should help you prepare your lineups to win this week. It’s essential to analyze the weekly NFL matchups to find lineup sleepers and gems, while also avoiding those players who may turn out to be busts.

 

Bills @ Dolphins - Thursday 11/13 @ 8:25 EST

Disclaimer: As has been the case with these short-week games, nothing is certain. These games are incredibly volatile, and usage (and fear of over-usage) causes teams to flip the script as quickly as they can in order to catch the other team's game plan off guard. Be warned.

Matchups We Love

Dolphins Defense

Barring the Thursday change in direction, the only certainty this week comes from the Dolphins defense. Filled with enough talent across the board to put together a strong effort against both the run and the pass, it's doubtful that Orton can keep up his streak of playing well against good defenses-- history tells us Orton is not actually this good. With the near certainty that the run game will be almost nonexistent for the Bills, thanks to one of the league's best rushing defenses, the Bills will be relying almost entirely on Orton's arm to get the offense rolling. If all goes as planned, the Dolphins defense is in for a great week.

Matchups We Hate

Fred Jackson, RB, Bills and Lamar Miller, RB, Dolphins

It's a similar situation for both players. They're both coming back from injuries, and each is up against an extremely tough opponent coming into a short week. I'd look at my other options and consider both of these guys as low-end RB2s.

Notable Players

Kyle Orton, QB, Bills and Ryan Tannehill, QB, Dolphins

Not great matchups for either of these guys. Both teams have great pass rushers. Both teams are very efficient at stopping the pass, ranking among the top 10 in almost all possible metrics, and neither QB is in the matchup-proof tier. Still, it only takes two passing touchdowns for a QB to put up a good fantasy day. Orton is looking at mid-QB2 status and Tannehill at high-QB2.

Sammy Watkins, WR, Bills and Mike Wallace, WR, Dolphins

Both players will suffer from the amount of pressure their QBs will be under. Wallace is facing a team that's allowed only 58 yards a game to WR1s, while Watkins goes up against a team that's allowing a much more decent 79 yards per game. They'll both be sitting atop the WR2 category this week, with Wallace having some WR1 potential, thanks to his usage in the Dolphins red zone game..

 

Vikings @ Bears - Sunday 11/16 @ 1:00 EST

Matchups We Love

Matt Forte, RB, Bears

The only player with any consistency on the Bears is Matt Forte. This week, he's up against a pedestrian Vikings defense. It's a sweet matchup for the only part of an offense that keeps churning out points.

Matchups We Hate

No one in this matchup is facing a daunting opponent.

Notable Players

Jay Cutler, QB, Bears, Alshon Jeffery, WR, Bears and Brandon Marshall, WR, Bears

I want to believe that this trio can put up points again, so I will. One of Marshall or Jeffery definitely will, there's no doubt about that, but will both of them? The Minnesota defense has allowed 63 and 47 yards per game to opposing WR1s and WR2s, respectively. Cutler is facing some serious difficulties as of his last game (as is the whole team, evidently), and the Vikings have a strong pass-rushing front seven to complicate matters. Despite all that, I'm still feeling Cutler as a borderline QB1/2, with Alshon and Marshall both sitting at the low WR1s.

Jerick McKinnon, RB, Vikings and Matt Asiata, RB, Vikings

The Bears are not a great run defense. They will be beaten on the ground, and at the very least, McKinnon is in line for a solid 70-yard game. Will he get the goal line touches that he needs to reach RB1 numbers, though? That's a hard one to answer. Asiata is too touchdown-dependent to hit starter status in all but the deepest of leagues, even with a decent run matchup. He's sitting at the large pile of RB4s with low-RB2 potential against a team that's only allowed five rushing TDs on the season.

Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Vikings and Greg Jennings, WR, Vikings

The Bears passing defense is trending way downwards. If you're willing to take the trend at face value, both Jennings and Bridgewater become interesting stream options (I'll admit that I'm using them myself) for those in need. Jennings has been Bridgewater's favorite and most consistent target, and they'll be within the low-QB1 and mid-WR2 range if all goes right.

 

Texans @ Browns - Sunday 11/16 @ 1:00 EST

Matchups We Love

Arian Foster, RB, Texans or Alfred Blue, RB, Texans

Whoever starts this week becomes a matchup I love. The Browns run defense is allowing the second-most yards per carry and fifth-most yards per game to opposing running backs. It's a result of how poorly their D-line has been playing from game to game-- PFF has all but one defensive lineman (backup and starters) graded negatively for run defense. Whoever starts for the Texans at running back this week is looking at RB1 status.

Ben Tate, RB, Browns, Terrance West, RB, Browns, and Isaiah Crowell, RB, Browns

Whichever one of these three you're willing to risk your week on has a great matchup. The Bengals were considered to be a bottom-three run defense by PFF/FO entering last week's game, and right now they're facing a team that is again bottom-three in run defense by PFF/FO. The Browns running backs will also benefit from the 49 yards a game the Texans are allowing in the air to opposing RBs.

Matchups We Hate

Another game with no shutdown opposition.

Notable Players

Andre Johnson, WR, Texans and DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Texans

If you're willing to take the risk on the Mallett hype train, Johnson and Hopkins are there waiting for you. For what it's worth, Johnson is a huge fan of Mallett, and that might turn into a surprisingly decent connection this weekend. Without the game having been played yet though, it's hard to see either as more than a low-end WR2. Luckily, the Browns pass rush rests on just two players, so Mallett shouldn't see too much pressure. Mallett himself is hard to recommend as more than a QB2 before ever having played an actual game.

 

Falcons @ Panthers - Sunday 11/16 @ 1:00 EST

Matchups We Love

Matt Ryan, QB, Falcons and Julio Jones, WR, Falcons

A team lacking offensive linemen is going up against a team with no pass rush and horrible corner play. That neutralizes what should be a negative, putting Ryan back into top QB1 territory. The same goes for his partner in crime, Julio Jones.

Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Panthers

Yeah, we know-- Benjamin is the star of garbage time. But the Panthers will be in garbage time often, and Benjamin won't continue his starring role. Still, when it's not garbage time, he's been able to make use of the opportunities that have been given to him. He sits in the low WR1 territory with a good matchup that should force throws.

Matchups We Hate

Atlanta Defense and Carolina Defense

These two underperforming teams are clashing in a divisional battle that should see some results on the offensive side of the ball. If you're desperate, you can take your chance on Atlanta because of Cam's supposed injury, but I'd search for better options.

Notable Players

Greg Olsen, TE, Panthers

No player that will be matched up with Olsen has been good in pass coverage throughout the season, according to PFF. However, thanks to a weak TE schedule, the Falcons are only allowing 44 yards per game to TEs. That should change this weekend.

Cam Newton, QB, Panthers

He's injured, but he's up against one of the worst passing defenses in the league. The Falcons passing defense is really bad. They're allowing the most passing yardage per game in the league, and the third-most passing yards per completion at 8.2. They're ranked fourth-worst on PFF, with all but one player in their starting lineup earning a negative coverage grade. They're ranked 32nd for passing on FO's DVOA metric. The only thing keeping Cam from being higher up is his injury, and then there's the slowly building narrative that Cam may have checked out of this season. It's hard to imagine him falling below QB1, though.

 

Bengals @ Saints - Sunday 11/16 @ 1:00 EST

Matchups We Love

A.J. Green, WR, Bengals

The Saints passing defense is weak. Even with Dalton having one of the most abysmal Thursday night performances, it's hard to imagine it happening twice (with Green being shut down twice as a result). WR1 is where he should be firmly at this week.

Mark Ingram, RB, Saints

Ingram is facing a run defense that is allowing the second-most yards per game, is the third-worst run defense on PFF, and is the absolute worst run defense on FO's DVOA statistic. RB1 for sure.

Matchups We Hate

Bengals Defense and Saints Defense

Another game this week where the defenses are the last thing on anyone's minds. Expect low-scoring efforts from both units.

Marques Colston, WR, Saints and Brandin Cooks, WR, Saints

The Bengals have been very good at stopping opposing wideouts all season long. That's something that you should expect to continue.

Notable Players

Drew Brees, QB, Saints and Jimmy Graham, TE, Sains

If you have them, you're starting them. They're in neutral matchups this week, but both are firmly in the QB1 and TE1 groups--especially Graham, who faces coverage that has allowed 73 yards a game to tight ends.

Jeremy Hill, RB, Bengals

The Saints defense is among the bottom eight in rushing yards allowed per game, allowing a 4.2 YPC to running backs. If the game gets away from the Bengals, Hill might have trouble seeing a legitimate load of carries. Regardless, he's sitting at RB2, especially with news coming that Bernard's time out might be extended.

 

Buccaneers @ Redskins - Sunday 11/16 @ 1:00 EST

Matchups We Love

Mike Evans, WR, Buccaneers

He's really come around the last two weeks, and it looks like he might be here to stay. Evans is up against a defense where not a single starting defensive back is positively graded on PFF. The Redskins also have a capable run defense, which might force the ball more often in Evans direction, a real bonus.

DeSean Jackson, WR, Redskins

Rotoworld is reporting that Garcon is no longer the X receiver in Gruden's scheme, meaning he no longer plays a prominent role in the passing game. This is obvious, considering the string of games Jackson has recently had; this week in particular, Jackson is up against a defense that's allowing 94 yards a game to opposing WR1s.

Robert Griffin III, QB, Redskins

I'm ready to hop back onto the RG3 bandwagon, especially when he's up against a defense that's been as incompetent as Tampa's. It's an easy matchup against a team allowing the second-most passing yardage per game to opposing QBs.

Matchups We Hate

Buccaneers Defense and Redskins Defense

This is another matchup where there is just no one to bench on offense. These two defenses are weak enough that everyone's in play.

Notable Players

Vincent Jackson, WR, Buccaneers

The Redskins passing defense is weak enough to allow multiple receivers to be fed, but Jackson seems to be struggling all on his own. He's barely been targeted in the red zone in recent weeks, and despite being top ten in targets all season long, he's rarely shown much on the field as far as output.

 

Broncos @ Rams - Sunday 11/16 @ 1:00 EST

Matchups We Love

Peyton Manning, QB, Broncos, Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Broncos, Demaryius Thomas, WR, Broncos, and Julius Thomas, TE, Broncos

There's nothing the Rams can do to stop this, not in a season as injury-plagued as theirs has been. No player has a difficult matchup across from the Rams, and Peyton's unlikely to see pressure often enough to disrupt him. This should be a slaughter.

Matchups We Hate

The St. Louis Rams

I really want to try and find a hole that the Rams can make use of, but the Broncos just don't have any. Unless your league gives points for kickoff returns, there's no one here worth starting.  (Benny Cunningham is your special teams man, since he's the returner and the passing-down back, and this will be a game with a lot of passing for the Rams if they want to compete).

The Denver defense has been amazing on the outside WRs, and is only allowing more than 55 yards per game to one position, the TE. However, they also have one of the best pass rushes in the league, while the Rams have the fourth-worst pass blocking (PFF). It's really hard to see a silver lining in any Rams offensive player this weekend. Don't even get me started on the defense, either-- they're playing Peyton, man.

Notable Players

C.J. Anderson, RB, Broncos and Montee Ball, RB, Broncos

Every since Rookie DT Aaron Donald become a more integral part of the Rams starting rotation, they've managed to be significantly better against the run, good enough to reach above-average levels on both PFF and FO. On top of that, the shakeup of carries this weekend is murky. It's not a week you really want to be relying on these guys, unless you're desperate.