Zach Wilkens breaks down the first half of the Week 1 matchups for the 2015 NFL football season. Each week of the NFL season, we will be breaking down each of the NFL matchups and providing you with some fantasy football advice and lineup recommendations based on matchups that we love, matchups that we hate, and some high-risk/high-reward players, as well.

Below, you will find part one of our Week 1 NFL matchups & fantasy football start/sit analysis, which should help you prepare your lineups to win this week. It’s essential to analyze the weekly NFL matchups to find lineup sleepers and gems, while also avoiding those players who may turn out to be busts. Be sure to also check out part two of this week's matchups analysis, diving into the later slate of games.

Editor’s Note: Want some more matchups data for your start/sit lineup decisions? RotoBaller's NFL Premium Subscriptions are your secret weapon. Sign up now and get access to our in-house developed tools including the DFS matchups tool, lineup sleepers/streamers tool, DFS lineups picks newsletter, start/sit tool & much more. 

 

Packers @ Bears - Sunday 9/13 @ 1:00 EST

Matchups We Love

Davante Adams, WR, Packers - This is a great matchup for Adams to begin the season as a starter. The Bears had a terrible defense last year, allowing the second-most points overall. They might be a little better this year with the transition to defensive-minded head coach John Fox, but probably not much. In addition to the obvious names (Aaron Rodgers and Randall Cobb), I’m expecting big things from Adams as well.

Richard Rodgers, TE, Packers - Rodgers is another player who will look to make his mark as a starter. The Bears gave up the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends last year. I’m not sure that Rodgers will get a ton of looks this week but I do think Aaron Rodgers will look for him in the end zone. If Richard Rodgers can make the most of this good matchup it could be the start of a very good Rodgers-to-Rodgers connection.

Matchups We Hate

Bears Defense - If you can’t tell from above, I’m expecting big things from the entire Packers offense. That makes the Bears defense a bottom three fantasy D/ST for me. Negative fantasy points are likely, and don’t be surprised if Aaron Rodgers and company push for 40+ points. Last year the Packers put up 38 and 55 points in two victories over the Bears.

Notable Players

Martellus Bennett, TE, Bears - Bennett is coming off a career year where he put up a 90-916-6 line. I’m expecting more PPR goodness this year with several Bears receivers recovering from injuries. Look for Bennett to be targeted early and often.

Eddie Lacy, RB, Packers - Lacy is my #1 overall player this fantasy season but the Packers won’t need to rely on him too much here. Lacy did have a touchdown in each of their two matchups last year but only managed 98 rushing yards in those two games combined. He should have a solid day but probably not an amazing one. If they get ahead by a lot they will probably use James Starks more often.

Alshon Jeffery, WR, Bears - Jeffery was essentially the Bears' WR1 last year with Brandon Marshall dealing with injuries, but now there is no doubt. Jeffery was sidelined for most of the preseason with a calf injury and John Fox has been pretty quiet about the whole ordeal. He does look set to play but he might not be 100%. I still expect him to be targeted heavily alongside Bennett.

 

Chiefs @ Texans - Sunday 9/13 @ 1:00 EST

Matchups We Love

DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Texans - The offense will run through Hopkins until Arian Foster comes back. I would think Hopkins will see at least 10 targets. When Andre Johnson missed the 14th game last year, Hopkins saw 13 targets. Unfortunately with Tom Savage at QB he managed only five catches for 77 yards. The Chiefs don’t have a shutdown corner, and their best CB is suspended (Sean Smith), so I don’t see anyone on this team that can stop Hopkins. He’ll be a PPR monster and a very good play in all formats.

Matchups We Hate

Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs - Hate is a relative term here because I still expect an RB1 day from Charles, just not a top-three performance. The Texans front seven is downright scary, and they were already a very stingy run defense last year. Now they have added Vince Wilfork, and former #1 overall pick Jadeveon Clowney is healthy and expected to play. The Texans allowed just one rushing touchdown and zero 100-yard games to RBs over their final seven last year. I do expect Charles to get 4-5 catches, but don’t freak out if it’s not a huge game.

Alfred Blue, RB, Texans - I’m not an Alfred Blue fan to begin with, and he should struggle against a decent Chiefs defense. I expect the Texans to find more success throwing and if Blue starts out slow I think they will see if Chris Polk or Jonathan Grimes can fare better.

Notable Players

Jeremy Maclin, WR, Chiefs - Maclin is making his debut as a Chief and is reunited with Andy Reid. Maclin became a star under Chip Kelly and as the lone established receiver on this team he may come close to matching his production from last year. I think both he and Alex Smith will look to end Smith’s streak of not throwing a TD to his wide receivers.

Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs - The Kelce hype train started last off-season and hasn’t stopped yet. Now a full-time player, many expect Kelce to exceed last years numbers. He is definitely one to watch.

 

Browns @ Jets - Sunday 9/13 @ 1:00 EST

Matchups We Love

Chris Ivory, RB, Jets - Ivory is poised to have a career year despite an offseason that saw the Jets add Stevan Ridley and Zac Stacy. Ridley is hurt and Stacy proved to be no competition for Ivory, meaning he is set to be a three-down back for the first time in his career. The Browns were pretty bad against the run last year but added NT Danny Shelton who should help. With an excellent secondary, expect the Jets to try and use Ivory to move down the field all day long.

Matchups We Hate

Jets Passing Offense - The Browns secondary is led by Joe Haden, one of the best corners in the league. They also have an excellent ballhawk in S Tashaun Gipson and hard-hitting veteran S Donte Whitner as well. I’m guessing Haden lines up against Brandon Marshall, which may bode well for Eric Decker if Ryan Fitzpatrick can get him the ball. However, I’m not sure Fitzpatrick is good enough to handle going against such a tough secondary.

Isaiah Crowell, RB, Browns - Rex Ryan is now gone but the Jets stingy run defense remains. As defensive coordinator for the Cardinals last year, new Jets HC Todd Bowles actually held opposing RBs to fewer fantasy points than the Jets allowed. He should have no problem getting the most out of his new defensive line. I like Crowell but it’s going to be tough start to the season.

Notable Players

Duke Johnson, RB, Browns - The rookie has been cleared following a concussion and will be the primary backup to Crowell and should also be the third down back. He barely appeared in the preseason following multiple injuries so this will be our first good look at him. If Crowell struggles they may give Duke some extra opportunities. I’ll be watching to see how he looks.

 

Colts @ Bills - Sunday 9/13 @ 1:00 EST

Matchups We Love

There isn’t anything I love from this game. I do expect Andrew Luck to do well but the Bills have a great defense. I don’t expect a ton from the Bills offense either.

Matchups We Hate

Sammy Watkins, WR, Bills - Watkins had a solid rookie season but he definitely struggled when facing the tougher secondaries. Watkins had to face Joe Haden and Darrelle Revis (twice) last year and struggled mightily in all three of those games. This week he gets shutdown corner Vontae Davis who didn’t allow a single touchdown last year according to PFF. Without a great QB to get him the ball, it’ll be a long day for Watkins.

Frank Gore, RB, Colts - The Bills are missing Marcell Dareus but they still have three excellent run-stoppers in Mario Williams, Jerry Hughes and Kyle Williams. If you have Gore you are probably starting him, but it’s not going to be pretty.

Notable Players

Andrew Luck, QB, Colts - Luck will be fine, but it is a tough matchup. The Bills allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs last year, behind only the Seahawks. They held Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers to single digits in back-to-back weeks late last year. You are definitely starting Luck, just don’t expect a huge day.

LeSean McCoy, RB, Bills - It looks like McCoy is good to go for Week 1. After a somewhat disappointing 2014, it will be very interesting to see him in a completely different offense. He’s getting a big downgrade at offensive line, but the Bills will need him to carry the offense if they want to succeed. He should get enough touches to have a good fantasy week regardless of how efficient he may be.

 

Dolphins @ Redskins - Sunday 9/13 @ 1:00 EST

Matchups We Love

Ryan Tannehill, QB, Dolphins - The Redskins have brought in some help for the secondary but I still think Tannehill and the Dolphins should have no problem moving down the field with every possession. This will be Tannehill’s first game with an impressive cast of receivers. Look for the Dolphins to showcase what the new offensive players are capable of.

Jarvis Landry, WR, Dolphins - While I mentioned the bevy of new receivers, Landry is still the one with an established chemistry with Tannehill and should get plenty of targets. Even in standard I expect a solid WR2 day from Landry. In PPR he could get 10+ receptions and approach WR1 numbers.

Lamar Miller, RB, Dolphins - I guess you could say I have pretty low expectations for the Redskins. Lamar Miller is coming off a really strong year and should do well once again. The Redskins were actually decent against the run last year, but I think the Dolphins will get an early lead and give Miller a lot of touches.

Matchups We Hate

Alfred Morris, RB, Redskins - Ndamukong Suh, Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon combine to make a fearsome defensive line. Suh is a huge addition and a great run-stopper. Morris will almost certainly struggle and the Redskins are likely to fall behind quick.

Notable Players

DeSean Jackson, WR, Redskins - D-Jax had a great first year in Washington, and had some especially strong games with Kirk Cousins last year. He’s usually a boom-or-bust player because he specializes in the deep ball. Jackson had eight games of 12+ standard points and six more of less than five. If the Redskins are down by more than two scores (which is very possible), they will probably take a few shots downfield to Jackson.

DeVante Parker, WR, Dolphins - My favorite rookie receiver outside of Amari Cooper, Parker barely played in the preseason while recovering from foot surgery. He isn’t likely to have a big impact in this game but I think he’s a player worth taking note of to see his usage and target numbers, as I expect he’ll have a bigger impact down the line.

 

Panthers @ Jaguars - Sunday 9/13 @ 1:00 EST

Matchups We Love

Cam Newton, QB, Panthers - I am surprised to see a number of people low on Cam this week. The Jaguars defense is definitely getting better and Newton’s receivers are... less than ideal. However, this is still the best running QB in the game and I don’t think the Jaguars have the defensive personnel to stop him. I’m predicting he will be worth at least five points on the ground which means he would only need 10 or 11 points passing (150 yards and a touchdown) to give you a solid day.

Greg Olsen, TE, Panthers - Olsen is pretty much the only pass-catcher that Cam knows he can trust. That means Olsen should see 8+ targets which gives him a very high floor. Again, I don’t think the Jaguars are a bad defense, but if I’m right about Olsen’s target volume it won’t matter too much.

Matchups We Hate

Blake Bortles, QB, Jaguars - Assuming the Panthers secondary is fully healthy (they have a couple guys dealing with concussions) this will be a tough matchup for Bortles. I loved what I saw from Bortles this preseason but this is a secondary that really emerged late in 2014. Josh Norman, Ben Benwikere and Tre Boston all played great down the stretch. If Bortles does manage to play well here I’ll be a big fan all season long.

Notable Players

Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers - With the lack of talent at WR, the Panthers need Jonathan Stewart to stay healthy while handling a high number of touches per game. That is a tall task for the oft-injured RB.

T.J. Yeldon, RB, Jaguars - The rookie was announced as the Week 1 starter, as expected. I’ll be curious to see what the carry split is between Yeldon, Denard Robinson and Toby Gerhart. I think they’ll ease Yeldon in by giving him maybe 10-12 carries this game. The Panthers are without Star Lotulelei and we’ll have to see if Yeldon can take advantage of that.

Allen Robinson, WR, Jaguars - Robinson is the clear top target for the Jags. He was looking good as a rookie before going down with an injury. Robinson did have multiple drops this preseason, but hopefully he’s left those issues in the past. If Bortles is to succeed, Robinson will have to be a big factor.

 

Seahawks @ Rams - Sunday 9/13 @ 1:00 EST

Matchups We Love

None. These are two very tough defenses and nobody impressed in their Week 17 matchup last season.

Matchups We Hate

Rams Passing Game - This will be a tough beginning to Nick Foles’ Rams career. Sure Kam Chancellor hasn’t shown up, but Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas are arguably the very best at their position in all of the NFL. I like Brian Quick long-term but I have no interest in playing any Rams WR this week.

Notable Players

Russell Wilson, QB, Seahawks - Wilson ran all over the Rams in their first matchup last year but their second matchup was his worst of the season. With Jimmy Graham and Tyler Lockett added to the offense I’m expecting better things this time around. On the negative side, I’m not a huge fan of the Seahawks offensive line and the Rams have a stacked defensive line. Wilson will need to use his mobility to avoid sacks and that may bode well for his fantasy numbers.

Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seahawks - Lynch is getting older but there’s no reason to think he’s on the decline yet. He failed to exceed 60 rush yards in either matchup with the Rams last season, but all he needs is one goal line carry to make this a solid day.

Jimmy Graham, TE, Seahawks - Probably the biggest reason to watch this game is to see Graham’s debut with the Seahawks. Graham is easily the best weapon that Wilson has had in his career. The Rams allowed just two touchdowns to tight ends last year but it’s very possible that Graham could match that total in week 1.

 

Saints @ Cardinals - Sunday 9/13 @ 4:05 EST

Matchups We Love

Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Cardinals - With Keenan Lewis out, I’m really liking Fitz this week. Fitz averaged 80 yards a game with Carson Palmer starting last year, a stat I've mentioned often over the last few weeks. The Saints defense is definitely improved but I expect Fitz to have no problems racking up points this week.

Matchups We Hate

Drew Brees, QB, Saints - I’m not saying Brees will have an awful game, but relative to his ranking he will probably disappoint this week. This is a tough matchup and the Cardinals have some great players in the secondary with Patrick Peterson and Tyrann Mathieu. Mathieu was only average last year and never seemed fully recovered from a torn ACL. I think he should be stronger and faster this year and has the potential to be a huge playmaker, which could spell trouble for Brees.

Notable Players

Mark Ingram, RB, Saints - Ingram had a breakout year last season. With C.J. Spiller out Week 1, Ingram should see more touches than previously expected. The Cardinals were very strong against the run last season so it’s not a good matchup, but I think Ingram can still have a solid game.

Brandin Cooks, WR, Saints - I don’t love the matchup but I love the player. Cooks has great hands and excellent speed, which is a combination that will frustrate defenders. I’ll be very excited to see how he handles a tough secondary like the Cardinals.

Carson Palmer, QB, Cardinals - Palmer played sparingly in the preseason but really struggled coming off a torn ACL last season. I’m not too worried about his recovery though. The only worry might be that he’s getting older. He’s got some great receivers so I’ll be looking for a strong game from Palmer.

 

NFL & Fantasy Football Chat Room