October 1, 2016

Pierre Camus' top 10 potential lineup busts for Week 4 of the 2016 fantasy football season. Players to avoid in your lineups as underperformers and disappointments.

You've read about all the sleepers, waiver wire pickups and starter suggestions based on matchups. Now let me burst some bubbles and tell you who I think is going to bust big time in Week 4.

This isn't to troll or spread hate - that's what those political sites are for. Think of this as a public service for fanboys and truth deniers who insist that everything is going to be alright, when it's clearly not. If you don't believe me, just ask the general public on Twitter. They know everything.
Warning: while the picks made in this article are completely serious, you may find sarcastic humor laced throughout. If you don't have any sense of humor whatsoever, turn back now before you get all worked up.

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Week 3 Recap

As usual, here's a weekly recap. I'm not one to gloat or take pride in proving doubters wrong, so here's a simple, easy to read statistical summary of my bust picks from Week 2. Interpret as you will.

Ryan Fitzpatrick - 188 passing yards, 0 TD, 6 INT

Carson Wentz - 301 passing yards, 2 TD, 0 INT

Marcus Mariota - 214 passing yards, 0 TD, 2 INT, 22 rushing yards

Isaiah Crowell - 15 carries, 79 yards, 0 TD

Odell Beckham Jr. - 7 receptions, 121 yards, 0 TD

Jerick McKinnon - 16 carries, 45 yards, 0 TD

LeSean McCoy - 17 carries, 110 yards, 2 TD

A.J. Green - 8 receptions, 77 yards, 0 TD

Mike Wallace - 3 receptions, 34 yards, 0 TD

Greg Olsen - 6 receptions, 64 yards, 0 TD

A couple of things stand out here: Carson Wentz is the real deal, ODB ultimately got his yardage, and LeSean McCoy had a great game against a top defense (at least it was last year). Feel free to ignore or excuse all the rest as plain ol' dumb luck. Now, let's find ten more "obvious" picks for this week!

Top 10 Busts for Week 4

Allen Robinson (WR, JAX) - The Colts secondary is hurt and bad, right? Maybe not so much. Top corner Vontae Davis is back and the Colts held Philip Rivers out of the end zone last week, limiting the team to 22 points. Blake Bortles is no Philip Rivers. The Jags' offense has been a shell of itself from last year, with Bortles creeping toward drop-worthiness in shallow leagues with another bad performance. A-Rob has been the one force for good on this team, scoring his first two TD against Baltimore last week, but still disappointed the first two games against soft defenses in Green Bay and San Diego. Despite the appearance of a good matchup, this week may not be a cake-walk for him, as the teams have to travel all the way to London. The Jags have become regulars on the international scene, scoring 34, 17, and 10 points in each of the last three games overseas. Gus Bradley and his historically bad winning percentage (.235) may well be on the way out of Jacksonville after this week. Half of all teams who have played in London return without their head coach. The writing is on the wall here - the Jags are primed for a letdown and Robinson is no exception.

 
 
Matt Ryan (QB, ATL) - This is what the Falcons were expecting when they picked Ryan #1 overall in 2008! I guess he's had a couple of OK seasons since then, but he is certainly off to his best start in a while. Lining up against the toothless defenses in New Orleans, Oakland, and Tampa Bay, all ranked in the bottom five, doesn't hurt. This week they face the defending NFC champion Panthers, whose problems have come on the offensive side of the ball, not defensively where Carolina currently ranks 11th. It also doesn't help that Mohamed Sanu is questionable after leaving Monday Night's game with a shoulder injury and Julio Jones decided to skip the game altogether to watch the debate instead. It's not like he was on the field and they just didn't throw it to him, right? That would be crazy. Ryan's numbers may go down this week just as easily as he does on block attempts. At least you won't have to worry about him getting injured.

 
 
Derek Carr (QB, OAK) - The younger (and far better) Carr has thrown for 867 yards, good for 10th among all QBs, with a 5/1 TD/INT rate. While the Raiders haven't had many problems scoring points, they also benefited from playing the Saints in Week 1 and Falcons in Week 2. Against a tougher defense in Tennessee, Carr posted a mediocre 249-1-1 line. The #3 defense so far, Baltimore has held opposing quarterbacks in check this season, allowing just 10.5 fantasy PPG. The run game will be key in the Ravens' nest this week (do Ravens have nests?), meaning Carr won't put up top 10 QB numbers. The Carr-Cooper connection has been a Godsend to Raider Nation, but even the savior has off-days once in a while.

 
 
Christine Michael (RB, SEA) - Speaking of saviors, it looks like this ex-Aggie has finally found a home in Seattle. In three games, he has already surpassed his season-high for rushing yards with 232, including a nifty 5.2 Y/A. The Jets don't like that. Jets fans probably don't like anything right now, but it's not the defense's fault that their QB insisted on handing the Chiefs the ball as frequently as possible. The Super Fast Planes still boast the 4th toughest run defense statistically this season and have as strong a front seven as anyone outside Denver. This game at home is bordering on must-win for them, lest they fall to 1-3. A gimpy Russell Wilson won't provide much relief in the pass game either. Remember the first two weeks when Michael ran for 66 and 60 yards with no scores? Neither does his four year-old son.

 
 
Lamar Miller (RB, HOU) - Miller is fourth in rushing yards this season and gets a home matchup against Tennessee this weekend. Sounds tempting, but look deeper and you'll see that his yardage has mainly come as a result of high volume. Miller has carried the ball more times (74) than any other running back aside from LeGarrette Blount (75). He is averaging just 3.6 Y/A, hasn't broken a run longer than 15 yards and is yet to cross the goal-line. Add in the fact that the Titans have been pretty good against the run under Dick LeBeau, limiting RB to 12.9 fantasy PPG and this could be another letdown. Miller will probably be near the top of the RB rankings in many publications and he does still warrant starting, considering there are now about seven healthy running backs in the entire NFL. He'll still get his yardage this season, but don't expect a breakout performance this particular week. Or you could just drop him out of sheer frustration and pickup Jordan Howard instead. Remember, the trendier picks always win fantasy leagues and it's never too soon to overreact.

 
 
Brandon Marshall (WR, NYJ) - Eric Decker's status for Sunday is looking increasingly shaky. More targets and more receptions for Marshall? Or more Richard Sherman and double-coverage all day? I'm sure I don't need to remind you that Seattle still has one of the best defenses in the league and has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to WR so far. Even if Ryan Fitzpatrick recovers from his early Halloween experience, there may not be much room for Marshall to operate. That's assuming he is even 100% to begin with. If the Jets have any common sense, they will try to lean on their running game and defense in this one. Buck up, Marshall owners, I'm sure you can find some other use for him this week...

 
 
Jimmy Graham (TE, SEA) - Graham busted out with a 100-yard game last week, which was a welcome sight for fantasy owners and Seahawks fan. For similar reasons mentioned above with Christine Michael, this could be a low-scoring game, especially on the Seattle side. Russell Wilson looks like he'll gut this one out after all, but he's obviously not 100%. The Jets were shredded by mini-Gronk last week, a.k.a. Travis Kelce, which might lead some to expect similar results from Graham. As much as I love my ex-Canes, I want to see more than one week of production before I'm putting someone coming off patellar tendon injury in my starting lineup. He admitted to John Clayton just days ago that he is "still not 100%" yet and it will be a long road back to reaching that performance level. He will gradually reach TE1 status again, but a good game against the 49ers shouldn't be looked at as a harbinger of things to come week-in and week-out.

 
 
Todd Gurley (RB, STL) - If you felt a strong breeze in your area Sunday evening, it was probably the collective breath of Gurley owners releasing a huge sigh of relief. His two TD, 85 yard game finally ends his fantasy scoring drought. Now brace yourself for the bad news: he still averaged barely over three yards a carry last week against a Tampa Bay team that is seventh-worst in fantasy points allowed to RB, giving him a 2.9 Y/A on the season. The Cardinals fell apart last week, allowing LeSean McCoy to have his way with them, but they were a top ten D against the run last season and did a fairly good job in weeks 1 & 2 in that department. Gurley remains a TD-dependent running back on a bad offensive team. Time to sell Gurley? Personally, I'm not selling just yet, but think of the amazing return you can get!

 
 
Le'veon Bell (RB, PIT) - Owners who drafted Bell are feeling like kids on Christmas this weekend as they finally get to put him into their lineups. Bell automatically becomes an RB1, but it doesn't necessarily mean he'll perform like one right away. First, there's the rust factor. Second, the Chiefs were the fourth-toughest D against RB last season. Lamar Miller put up some yardage against them in Week 2, hurting their statistical standing over the first part of this season, but the Chiefs completely took away Matt Forte last week. Finally, here's a fun fact: in 17 career home games, Bell has a 3.80 Y/A and nine total TD. That means slightly better than a 50/50 shot at scoring, and he will have to be heavily involved in the pass game right away to pile up yards. The Steelers should have a better time offensively after last week's humiliating loss, but Bell's presence alone doesn't mean they'll suddenly put up 50 against one of the league's better defenses. You need to start him in H2H leagues because, well... just because, but I wouldn't get too excited and pay top dollar in DFS this week. Still, his return is cause for celebration all around.

 
 
Antonio Brown (WR, PIT) - If you've read this far and actually paid attention, my sincere thanks. I could tell you that KC ranks in the top ten defensively in FPPG against WR this season or that in his one home game this season he only managed 39 yards or that Bell is going to eat into his targets, but that doesn't matter. It's Antonio freaking Brown. I think he'll be just fine and probably torch INT leader Marcus Peters a couple of times for big gains. I had to put him on here because Redditor Crazed8s said I would be a legend if I did. If nothing else, I'm a man of my word. I happen to have reliable sources that agree with me as well. Just look below. #Sarcasm