Starting Pitchers to Buy and Sell in Fantasy Baseball (Week 19)

Time To Answer For The Mistakes Made On Draft Day

Many fantasy league trading deadlines are quickly approaching and you need to evaluate what your team needs in order to make that last push for a playoff spot. If your team’s needs include starting pitching, I'm here to help. I’ve identified another four starting pitchers that are worthy of being added to your fantasy roster and shouldn’t cost you too much. On the other hand it is also high time that you rid yourself of those pitchers that you drafted but are performing like fantasy has beens. I know it’s hard to admit that you made a mistake on draft day but if you don’t atone for your errors of judgment and keep under performing players on your roster, you can cost your team a spot in the playoffs. Here are my latest picks for starting pitching sleepers who can be bought low and those who should be sold. They might not be sell high candidates any more but they should no longer be on your fantasy roster.

Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitchers To Buy

Zack Wheeler, New York Mets

Hopefully Mets owner Fred Wilpon will let GM Sandy Alderson use his credit card this coming offseason so that the Mets can buy themselves some decent hitters to go along with their bevy of good, young major league ready starting pitching. Last week we spoke about Jacob deGrom, who had an awesome week by the way, and this week I’m going to tell you why you should attempt to trade for Zack Wheeler. His overall season numbers, 6-8 won/loss record, 3.60 ERA and 1.33 WHIP, are admittedly mediocre but they don’t tell the full story of this 24 year old who is coming into his own.

In his last five starts he is 3-0 with a 1.67 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. The hard throwing righty has lowered his line drive and fly ball rates as well as raised his ground ball rate which in the long run will cumulatively help him give up less hits and especially less home runs. He’s relying less on his fastball and throwing his curve, slider and changeup more often and that has resulted in an improving swinging strike rate, all the way to 9.4% this season, up from 8.8% last season (anything over 8.5% for a starting pitcher is considered very good). His SIERA, an ERA stand-in designed to measure how well a pitcher actually performs, is 3.57 which is  well above average. Zack Wheeler is not one of the marquee names in the major leagues yet which means that you should be able to swing a deal for him without having to give up too much in return. With youth on his side he could also prove very valuable in keeper leagues.

John Lackey, St. Louis Cardinals

I’ve been waiting for the perfect time to feature John Lackey as a buy low candidate in my column and with his being traded to the St. Louis Cardinals a week ago now seems like the perfect time. All of us knowledgeable Fantasy Baseball Manager’s love when a marginally successful AL pitcher gets traded to the NL, and with Lackey getting moved to an NL franchise considered by many to be the cream of the crop, I see blue skies and a succession of green traffic lights in his future.

With 12 wins, a 65.2% first strike percentage, 3.55 ERA and a 120:32 K:BB ratio in 144 1/3 innings pitched, Lackey is poised to take the NL by storm and help the Cardinals in their quest to make the playoffs. At 35 years of age and still armed with a 90 MPH plus fastball this change of scenery has the potential to really jumpstart Lackey to a new level. This move has increased his fantasy value but you should still be able to make a fair deal for his services. He’s already won his first start for the “Red Birds”, so don’t procrastinate. Let him help you in your pursuit to make the playoffs in your league.

Kyle Hendricks, Chicago Cubs

Kyle Hendricks is a real sleeper pick who will probably be available on your league’s waiver wire. He doesn’t blow away hitters with a blazing fastball, but he is able to use his impeccable control along with his change-up, cutter and curve ball to keep hitters off guard. He has only made four starts this season but with a 2-1 won/loss record, 2.05 ERA and 1.06 WHIP.

Those who have seen him pitch say that he has an uncanny ability to read hitters and use his intellect and composure to keep hitters guessing and with a .221 batting average against, they seem to be guessing wrong quite often. If your starting pitching lineup needs a bit of a boost you should check your leagues waiver wire and take a chance on Hendricks. You really don’t have much to lose.

Ervin Santana, Atlanta Braves

Ervin Santana is another pitcher that I’ve been watching for a while and I finally feel comfortable recommending him as a buy option who can help solidify your starting pitching fantasy roster. Since 5/31 Santana has had just two starts out of twelve in which he has given up more than three runs. His overall record stands at 10-6, with a 3.59 ERA and 1.25 WHIP.

Santana’s move to the NL seems to be agreeing with him as he has drastically lowered his HR/FB rate which was as high as 18.9% during the 2012 season and is now just 7.9%, the second lowest rate of his career (league average is 9.5%). His swinging strike rate of 12.2% is elite for a starting pitcher, and together with his first strike rate of 64.2%, Santana is able to stay ahead of hitters and punch them out at a very high rate. Santana’s taken some lumps this season, but with two consecutive solid months of dominant pitching and a track record of strong second halves, (3.82 lifetime second half ERA vs. a 4.42 lifetime first half ERA) you can confidently make a move to add him to your starting pitching roster through a trade.

Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitchers To Sell

Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants

The Lincecum whose average velocity is down to 89.8 from a career high of 94 MPH is rearing his ugly head again. Keeping Lincecum and his double digit HR/FB rate on your fantasy roster and he just might derail your team. His overall numbers, 9-7 won/loss record, 4.21 ERA and 1.29 WHIP, are serviceable as a number three or four starter on a major league team but are not good enough to warrant a spot on a fantasy team trying to win it all down the stretch. Lincecum is only 30 years old and hopefully he will be able to adjust his pitching philosophy in order to deal with his loss of velocity so that in time he can become a more consistent fantasy contributor but don’t let him do it on your time. Talk up his recent three run six inning effort, trade him and let him be someone else’s headache.

A.J. Burnett, Philadelphia Phillies

A. J. Burnett is still owned in 70% of CBS Sports fantasy leagues. Why?!!? After reviving his career in Pittsburgh with two solid seasons in 2012 and 2013 the Phillies took a chance and signed him as a free agent this past offseason and have probably been regretting it ever since. What happened to the pitcher who won 16 games in 2012 and struck out 209 batters in 191 innings in 2013? Sadly it simply appears that his skills are eroding and we are witnessing Burnett’s last days as a serviceable fantasy pitcher. Gone are the days when he could throw a high 90’s fastball past hitters, instead his velocity actually dropped a tick since last season and now hovers at just over 90MPH. His swinging strike rate which last season was measured at a well above average 10.6% is now down to a lowly 8%.

Overall there aren’t any statistics that you can point to that will make you optimistic about the rest of Burnett’s season. Batters are hitting more line drives and fly balls, and less groundballs against him, all very bad signs and all helping to contribute to his miserable line this season: 6-11 won/loss record, 4.16 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. His strikeouts are down, his walks are up and he’s giving up homeruns at a higher rate this season as compared to last season. Try trading him if you can, but you’d be hard pressed to get much in return for him, and he's borderline droppable  at this point. Don’t be stubborn and let the fact that you selected him in the middle rounds of your draft make you take leave of your senses and convince you that he is worthy of a spot on your fantasy roster. Foolish thinking like that can cost your fantasy team dearly.