Welcome back, readers. We've gone through the infield breakouts and busts, now we head to the outfield.

The outfield had numerous surprises in the 2015 fantasy baseball landscape. Two of the top 10 outfielders were ranked outside the top 100 going into 2015 (A.J. Pollock, Lorenzo Cain) and of the top 20 outfielders, only five were ranked among the top 25 overall players in ADP (Mike Trout, Jose Bautista, Ryan Braun, Andrew McCutchen, Michael Brantley). It was a great year to draft outfielders late, as we'll explain with the five names listed below.

In addition to focusing on breakout players and what went right in 2015, I'll provide some context as to whether the production is sustainable or if we were witnessing a fluky season. Let's get started.

 

Breakout Players at OF

A.J. Pollock (ARI - OF)

2015 Statistics: 673 PA, .315/.367/.498, 111 R, 20 HR, 76 RBI, 39 SB

This is the Pollock the Diamondbacks envisioned when they drafted him in the first round. He put together a full campaign, posting the only 20/35 season among outfielders. He finished second in runs (111) and steals (39) and tenth in wRC+ (132) among outfielders. He finished as the No. 7 overall fantasy player and No. 2 outfielder behind only Bryce Harper.

So how did Pollock make the leap? It actually began in 2014. He posted strong numbers in 75 games until a broken hand knocked him out for the year, with the biggest improvement coming from power. He hit seven HR in 287 at-bats in 2014 and proceeded to smack 20 in 673 at-bats this year.

Pollock never showed this power in the minors and was scouted as a line drive hitter with "10 to 15" home run potential. Over 75% of his homers were off line drives this year, a trait that's difficult to maintain as a player gets older. Perhaps Pollock has simply matured as a hitter, but don't bank on him topping 20 HR in 2016. The rest of the numbers are authentic and Pollock is here to stay as a top 10 OF given his power/speed combo. The only downside to Pollock is he'll cost a pretty penny; he's currently projected as a top 25 pick. If he can stay healthy, he'll justify his high price tag.

 

Lorenzo Cain (KC - OF)

2015 Statistics: 604 PA, .307/.361/.477, 101 R, 16 HR, 72 RBI, 28 SB

Here's another example of unexpected power. After hitting just 16 home runs in his previous 1,188 at-bats, Cain matched that number in 604 at-bats in 2015. Cain was only top five in one category among outfielders (steals - 5th), but his across the board contributions helped him finish as the No. 8 outfielder.

One of the biggest external factors to Cain's success was batting third all year long. In contrast, he started 14 games in the three-hole in 2014. That helps explain the significant jump in R+RBI as he was surrounded by Eric Hosmer and Ben Zobrist instead of Alex Rios and Omar Infante.

Environment aside, Cain simply improved as a hitter. His walk rate rose while his strikeout rate plummeted by 25%, While his BABIP dropped from an unsustainable .380 to .347, his average actually rose by six points. Higher line drive rate, more solid contact, taking it opposite field more often, you get the gist. Cain was no fluke in 2015.

Steamer is not a fan of Cain going forward, projecting a .283/.334/.417 split with a 70/12/68/23 line over 628 at-bats. Personally I think it's premature to give Cain a fair projection until we see where Zobrist lands. They'll need a new two-hole if Zobrist signs elsewhere. Assuming they find a reasonable replacement, Cain should cover those projections fairly easily, particularly in the runs and average department.

 

Adam Eaton (CHW - OF)

2015 Statistics: 689 PA, .287/.361/.431, 98 R, 14 HR, 56 RBI, 18 SB

One of the few bright spots on an underachieving White Sox club, Eaton set the tone for the offense with his 98 runs, tied for eighth among all outfielders. And then there was that power.

To say Eaton's 14 homers were a career high is an understatement. In his past three years combined across all levels of the Diamondbacks organization, he hit 15. It wasn't exactly like they were lucky either. In fact, according to ESPN Home Run Tracker, only one of Eaton's homers was considered "lucky", and six of them cleared 400 feet.

Eaton's final numbers were padded by a fantastic September (.377, 2o R, 4 HR, 20 RBI, 5 SB) but they all count in the end. Steamer projects Eaton for a .272/.343/.395 split with a 83/10/54/18 line, a slight regression from this year. I think that's a bit pessimistic in the runs and on-base percentage considering his walk rate improved this year. Eaton makes for a solid third outfielder in most fantasy leagues.

 

David Peralta (ARI - OF)

2015 Statistics: 517 PA, .312/.371/.522, 61 R, 17 HR, 78 RBI, 9 SB

Peralta embodies the phrase, "talent wins out in the end." He entered 2015 with a cluttered Diamondbacks outfield that included Pollock, Mark Trumbo, Ender Inciarte, and Yasmany Tomas. He finished as part of one of the most underrated outfield trios (Inciarte-Pollock-Peralta) in baseball.

Peralta served as an excellent protector to Paul Goldschmidt in the D-backs lineup, turning 517 at-bats into 17 homers, 26 doubles, 10 triples, and an impressive .522 slugging percentage (8th among OF). His 26.7 runs above average on offense was good enough for ninth among outfielders.

He's always had the power; he posted a .507 SLG in the minors. The steals were a nice surprise; Peralta is a strong baserunner and the Diamondbacks like to steal (most in MLB), so don't be shocked when he posts a 20/10 season in 2016. His strikeout rate climbed even higher to 20.7%, but that comes with the territory for power hitters.

If the Diamondbacks let Peralta spend 2016 cleaning up with full-time at-bats, he has the potential to be a top 20 OF in fantasy. Steamer seems to side with the mentality of a clogged outfield, with a .281/.334/.449 split and 66/15/66/8 line. Put me down as bullish. I think Peralta will be a good third outfielder for most fantasy owners.

 

Cameron Maybin (DET - OF)

2015 Statistics: 555 PA, .267/.327/.370, 65 R, 10 HR, 59 RBI, 23 SB

Thrown in as a filler in the first Craig Kimbrel trade to San Diego, Maybin has now come full circle with his career as he returns to the Detroit Tigers. But that last move only happened thanks to his impressive 2015 with the Atlanta Braves.

Maybin was one of the few bright spots on dysfunctional Atlanta roster, playing above-average defense and swiping 23 bags (tied-10th among OF). Maybin was off to fast start, compiling a .289 average in the first half with 38 R, 8 HR, 44 RBI, and 15 SB.

Injuries derailed his second half (.240) and made me question if he belonged in this segment, but one must consider he cost nothing on draft day. And when I say nothing I mean he probably went undrafted as Atlanta hadn't yet decided on Maybin or Eric Young Jr.

If there's one bonus to Maybin's rough finish, it's the fact he isn't sought after as we head into 2016. Detroit is a much better fantasy situation than Atlanta, but I don't think you need me to tell you that. He should find himself batting leadoff ahead of Ian Kinsler, Miguel Cabrera, and J.D. Martinez. Steamer isn't high on Maybin staying healthy, projecting a .263/.322/.382 split with a 53/8/46/14 line over 109 games. For the record, I'll project Maybin to play 130 games with 85 runs and 20 steals.

 

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