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Fantasy football draft season is upon us and RotoBaller is here to help! In this series, two RotoBaller experts will discuss the merits of two players with similar value and average draft position (ADP). Remember that situations will change for all players over the course of the summer and it may impact where they are selected in drafts.
Our next article comes from staff writers Joe Sorensen and Pierre Camus (@pfunk00). They evaluate two mid-round running back options at very different places in their careers. Joe promotes second-year back Ameer Abdullah, whereas Pierre advocates for veteran Frank Gore.
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Ameer Abdullah (RB, DET) - Joe Sorensen
Frank Gore (RB, IND) - Pierre Camus
There's a reason 33 year-old running backs don't get much love. In fact, 28 is considered old by RB standards and anything after 30 is practically ancient. The statistics prove this to be true: the average 33 year-old running back scores half as many points as a 27 year-old on a per-game basis. Frank Gore's best years are behind him, not ahead. Ameer Abdullah, a mere 23 entering the 2016 season, should be on the upswing and will surely increase his point totals from last year's disappointing rookie campaign. All of this is indisputable.
That said, I still believe Gore has a good chance to outscore Abdullah straight up in fantasy points this season. Why? Gore isn't a typical running back. People have been trying to write him off for years as being too old, yet he keeps producing. There's a reason he enters the season as the clear starting back for the Colts, a team that many favor to win their division and were even a trendy Super Bowl pick a year ago. Gore actually improved on his numbers from his last season in San Francisco and has not shown any true signs of decline.
Gore finishing as the 12th ranked fantasy RB actually does mark a slightly disappointing year for a player who has held RB1 status for a decade. 2015 marked the first time in his career that he didn't reach 1,000 rushing yards in a season in which he played at least 12 games. 967 is pretty close, however, and when you add in 267 receiving yards and seven total TD, he was far from a bust. If there is something to point to for Gore detractors, it would be the 3.7 Y/A. This isn't a sign of an aging player so much as an unfortunate offensive situation. The entire Colts offense was in shambles as Andrew Luck missed over half the season, Andre Johnson never adjusted to his role in the offense, and offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton was fired in the middle of the year. With the passing threat minimized, Gore saw more stacked boxes and the Colts were playing from behind more often. Those situations should be remedied this season. Offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski is promising to bring an attacking style of play calling that will focus on winning match-ups. Gore will not be run into the ground for the sake of trying to establish a running game, nor will he be ignored as the Colts go pass-happy.
In all likelihood, Gore will post another 1,200-1,500 combined yards with 8-10 TD. When you see a player available in the 7th round that is almost assured of that kind of production, you shouldn't just consider it, you should pounce! Abdullah may approach those statistics by his third or fourth year in the league, but Detroit's running offense, or lack thereof, doesn't inspire much hope. Detroit finished dead last with 83.4 rushing yards per game, which might be overlooked if they hadn't also finished 28th the year before. The Lions offensive line still ranks as one of the worst in the league and their off-season moves consisted of losing their best wide receiver to retirement and ditching Abdullah's backups to give him less rest? That doesn't strike me as a recipe for a breakout season for someone who looked lost as a rookie.
The Inconvenient Truth is that Gore is still a reliable running back in the NFL and fantasy leagues alike. Sometimes we confuse young and unproven as being synonymous with "upside." As running back situations get murkier each season and finding a reliable back becomes more difficult, why wouldn't you go with a sure thing? Zero RB theorists should jump at the chance to make Gore their first pick. If you're in a dynasty league, by all means take Abdullah first. He had a tremendous college career and has potential to be the next Frank Gore. For the 2016 season, I prefer the real thing.
