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Here at RotoBaller we’ve been cranking out tons of preseason content for some time now. We might be a little obsessed with baseball ‘round these parts. But that’s okay, because so are you!
And what better way to celebrate the advent of draft season than to profile potential breakouts and busts? Last week’s series focused on players who fell into those categories in 2015 and their outlooks for this season. This week, we’ll take a closer look at the guys who are most likely to delight, or disappoint, fantasy owners in 2016. Today I take a look at three young American League outfielders who may produce sneaky value for fantasy baseball owners in 2016. Let's take a look.
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2016 AL Outfield Breakout Candidates
Delino DeShields Jr.
So DeShields is fast. Like, really fast. He isn't quite on Billy Hamilton's level - few mortals are - but like Hamilton, he has a 100 SB season on his minor league resume. And unlike Hamilton, he can actually hit a little. As a rookie, he posted a .261/.344/.374 line with 83 runs in 121 games. The OBP probably tipped you off as to his plate discipline; he maintained the double-digit walk rate he carried throughout his minor league career. He only stole 25 bases, true, but he was on a 50-steal pace before suffering a hamstring injury. 40-plus swipes are definitely on the table, along with 100 runs if he keeps his spot near the top of the Rangers lineup.
Stolen bases were more difficult to find on the waiver wire than usual last season. There's no guarantee that will continue, of course, but you might want to invest a little more in speed just in case. If you're going to do that though, why pay a premium for Hamilton, whose ADP is just inside the top 100? DeShields is barely a blip on the radar for most owners right now. Take advantage.
The way things have gone the past few seasons, it’s almost become more remarkable when a rookie struggles to adjust to the majors than when one immediately succeeds. Last season was a particularly rough year for Buxton to scuffle, given the outrageous performances we saw from many first-year players. You might have forgotten this, but Buxton was generally regarded as the game’s top prospect as recently as last winter.
Unfortunately for Buxton and the Twins, his first crack at the majors was a disappointment. Buxton hit just .209/.250/.326 with two homers and two steals in 46 games. Here are a few things to keep in mind, though. Buxton didn’t turn 22 until after the season. He had just 59 plate appearances above Double-A before getting called up to The Show, and suffered a thumb injury soon after the promotion. And not for nothing, but some guy named Mike Trout had a similarly uninspiring debut before turning into the destroyer of worlds we all know and love in his first full season. Buxton probably isn’t going to make that drastic of a jump, but he’s still an immensely talented young player whom you might just be able to get at a discount.
Hicks was Buxton’s predecessor in the “Twins hotshot center field prospect” department, and was dealt to the Yankees back in November. He's 26 years old and hasn't amounted to much in the majors yet. He'll also start the year as New York's fourth outfielder. So why are we talking about him? Well, he managed to hit 11 homers and steal 13 bases in only 390 plate appearances last year, for one. He did that while shaving eight points off of his K% and maintaining a solid walk rate. Oh, and this all came against increased quality of competition. Now he's moving from Target Field to Yankee Stadium, which could give him a further boost in the power department.
As for his path to playing time? Jacoby Ellsbury has missed an average of 54 games per season this decade and turns 33 in September. Carlos Beltran will 39 in April and has missed his fair share of time over the last few seasons as well. He's also declined defensively, against lefties, and on the bases. Hicks happens to grade out well in all of those areas. Then consider Joe Girardi's affinity for playing matchups, and it's not hard at all to envision Hicks cobbling together enough plate appearances to be relevant in most formats. He likely won't even be drafted in most leagues, so there’s considerable profit potential here.
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