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Can Colin McHugh Replicate His Breakout 2014?
Nobody had Collin McHugh on their fantasy radar prior to 2014. Around this point last year, McHugh was designated for assignment by the Rockies and picked up by the Astros. At the time, his small sample performance in the majors was a 0-8 record with an 8.94 ERA, 50 runs allowed in 47.1 innings, and a lowly 8.8 percent strikeout rate. Rightfully so, he started the 2014 season in Triple-A.
After an early injury landed "ace" Scott Feldman on the disabled list, McHugh was recalled. Many expected it to be a temporary move until Feldman returned. However, McHugh never left the majors until being shut down at the end of the season. In 25 starts with the Astros, he went 11-9 with a 2.73 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, a 9.1 K/9 rate, and a fantastic 3.83 K/BB rate. Among qualified starters, his strikeout rate was good for ninth best in the league. His .205 opponent's average ranked seventh best. How did he do it? Whether his pitches were thrown inside or outside the zone, batter couldn't touch them. McHugh induced tons of swins and misses. After being shut down for precautionary reasons, McHugh was 4th in voting for the AL Cy Young.
McHugh had his statistically worst stretch of the season from early June through the end of July, where he posted a 3.45 ERA. Looking at his streak of six losses in a row, the Astros offense gave him a combined eight runs during those games. An improving roster could help to turn the poor run support into victories which will add quite a bit of value in fantasy baseball leagues that count Wins.
What I love most looking at McHugh is his fastball. In 2014, he threw the pitch 40% of the time, which is among the 10 lowest in all of baseball. Yet his 10.8% SwStk% is above league average. This could be a case of quality over quantity considering his four seamer tops out at just 91.6 MPH. However, his fastball has actually increased in velocity from 89.9 MPH in 2012. While the increase in velocity doesn't make him the next Yordano Ventura, McHugh doesn't need to rely sole upon his fastball, as he has other quality pitches that he throws nearly 60% of the time. One thing to note is that McHugh's first-pitch strike % was lower than average, so we should expect his excellent 2.39 BB/9 rate to increase once batters start laying off his pitches more frequently.
Heading into 2015, Houston added Jed Lowrie, a much better offensive SS than predecessor Jonathan Villar. Youngsters George Springer and Jon Singleton are also going to be expected to produce more after their rookie seasons. The additions of Luke Gregerson and Pat Neshek to the back end of Houston’s bullpen will add more protection for the rotation and help hold onto a few extra wins for McHugh.
In Summary
Looking at ESPN’s current fantasy rankings, McHugh is ranked number 167 on their big board, and number 43 among starting pitchers. Behind him on that list are SP’s like Matt Cain, Zack Wheeler, Ian Kennedy and Francisco Liriano. All of these guys are bigger names than McHugh, which means they will likely be taken in front of him. In a 10 team standard league, I would be more than satisfied with grabbing McHugh in the round 15-17 range as a depth starting pitcher and seeing if he can replicate his success from last year with a few more Ws.
