RADIO
Lee Will Have to Overcome Age & Injuries to be a Contributor
Over six seasons from 2008 to 2013, few pitchers were as dominant as Cliff Lee. At times he was virtually unhittable, and achieved greatness despite pitching four of those six seasons in the bandbox that is Citizen's Bank Park in Philadelphia. Over the six season span from 2008-2013 Lee averaged 31 GS, 14 W, 222 IP, 33 BB, and 200 K along with a 2.90 ERA and 1.08 WHIP.
At his best, Lee pitches over 200 innings, keeps his ERA near 3.00, and maintains a K/BB ratio of 5:1. All of that adds up to an ace of your pitching staff, whether you are referring to fantasy baseball or real life. With that being said, what has Cliff Lee done for us lately?
The Philadelphia Phillies have not been contenders over the past few seasons, and part of that has been due Lee's injuries: he made only 14 starts in 2014 and was a non-factor in the fantasy baseball world. The biggest issue that Lee ran into during the 2014 was the left elbow soreness that only allowed him to start 13 times led to an unimpressive 1.38 WHIP. His record, walks, and strike-out numbers were on par with previous seasons.
What to Expect Moving Forward
My biggest issue with Lee moving forward is that he had an elbow injury to his throwing arm, saw Dr. James Andrews, and did not have surgery. Being at the advanced age of 36, this will most likely be an injury that will show its face again.
The Phillies are in a rebuilding mode, even if they haven't explicitly said so. They sold off shortstop Jimmy Rollins, the are fielding offers for the ace pitcher Cole Hamels, and would love to be able to get out from under that 25 million dollar per season contract that Ryan Howard is signed to. General manager Ruben Amaro is not an easy person to make a deal with since he wants the moon and stars for his players and will not accept fair value. So as assembled, the Phillies are looking at being a 70 win team and coming in last place in the National League's East.
Cliff Lee returning from injury and being himself would go a long way. The best case scenario for the Phillies and fantasy owners is that Lee ends up with 32 GS, 16 W, 220 IP, 210 K, and 30 BB with a 2.75 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. The worst case scenario is Lee gets injured early in the season, and is unable to give his fantasy owners much of anything.
Cliff Lee is 36 years old and has a lot of miles under his belt, but he still has that curveball and unmatched control while on the mound and healthy. He will have to be careful not to give up too many homeruns.
In Summary
My fantasy outlook for the 2015 season for Cliff Lee is that he misses about four weeks of the season due to elbow inflammation. While he is on the field and healthy, I do think he will be a good pitcher. I project that he will finish the season with a .500 record at 8-8. He should maintain an ERA around 3.25 and a WHIP around 1.18, striking out 145 batters while only walking 22 batters.
I would not risk too much money on Lee on draft day, nor would I take him in the first ten rounds of the draft. But if he falls into your lap and fits a need for your team, you can do far worse than a professional pitcher and former ace like Cliff Lee. He is the definition of a high-risk, high-reward option for the 2015 fantasy baseball season.
