RADIO
CURRENT ADP: 33
RANKINGS STATUS: Overvalued
ANALYSIS: If you guessed that this article is about how Bryce Harper has yet to live up to the hype, you're right! He is a .270 hitter that can't stay on the field (139 games in 2012, 118 in 2013, and 100 last year), has never hit 25 HR, and is currently being way overdrafted with an average ADP of 34 per FantasyPros.
All of this is true. What may not be quite as well known is that Harper was lucky to accomplish even those pedestrian numbers last year. He managed a BABIP on grounders of .342 last season, a full 103 points higher than the league average of .239! Such a number is unsustainable for a player without elite speed, but Harper does not have that kind of speed. Harper's BABIP on line drives was also above average. While his BABIP on fly balls was well below average should rebound, overall we can expect his BABIP to come down next year 25-40 points. When it does his average may go from mediocre to bad. With no hard evidence of a coming power spike to justify the batting average hit, Harper may look quite unattractive in 2015.
There is no doubting Bryce Harper's incredible talent and ultra-high ceiling, but if you draft him at his current ADP he will need to hit that ceiling to justify his draft price. There is simply no room for his fantasy owners to turn a profit. If your league counts unjustified Sports Illustrated covers as a category, by all means draft Harper, but if it doesn't steer well clear.
Don't forget to read all of RotoBaller's 2015 fantasy baseball rankings and rankings analysis for every position to help prepare for your fantasy drafts. Let's win some leagues!
