RADIO
Ah, the saves+holds league. Welcome to a progressive community that embraces relief pitchers of all types, not just those fortunate few who selfishly hoard the game’s final outs.
Here, players like Darren O'Day and Andrew Miller can flourish. Here, you need not worry about role stifling Dellin Betances’ value or (to use an example from last season) whether the Phillies will trade Jonathan Papelbon so Ken Giles finally can lay claim to the sacred closer's role. Because, for the most part, it doesn’t matter.
Put simply, in saves+holds leagues, skill is coveted above role. Let me show you what I mean.
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How Holds Affect Reliever Values
Adding holds to traditional formats puts a major twist on relief pitcher worth. First, as you’ve probably already gleaned, more relievers have value — 29 relievers notched at least 20 holds last season, while 28 picked up at least 20 saves. And those 57 relievers don’t include the guys who secured a good portion of both, including Giles (15 saves, 12 holds) and Tyler Clippard (19 saves, eight holds).
You’re left with a pool of about 30 relievers in traditional leagues. Saves+holds leagues more than double your options for good relief.
A bigger pool is nice, in a way. In drafts and auctions, if you miss out on some of the top closers, you won’t be forced to overpay for guys like Huston Street and Jason Grilli who do little to help in other categories.
Naturally, however, a bigger pool of options spreads out the value, meaning upper-echelon pitchers aren’t worth quite as much.
The effect can be seen in the charts below. With holds added to the mix, relief pitcher’s positional values (as projected by Rotowire) absorb a significant blow. Take a look at the top 20 relievers in traditional leagues. They are worth an average of $8.40 per player — 3.2 percent of your $260 budget. In saves+holds leagues, the top 20 relievers are worth only $4.10 per player — 1.5 percent of your total budget.
Again, with saves not as precious a commodity, relievers simply have less value.
At the top of the rankings, the effect is significant, but as you move beyond the elite, the effect becomes even more pronounced. Let’s start at the top.
Traditional 5X5 top 20:
Wade Davis is a star no matter which league format you play, but in saves+holds leagues, his value takes a hit proportional to that of his diminished value of his position as the Royals' stopper.
In other words, in a traditional 5x5 league, Chapman is the No. 1 overall reliever, worth $19, while in a 5x5 saves+holds league, he remains the No. 1 reliever, but is worth only $12. His ranking holds, but his value dips as his position as closer has less value.
As I said, this effect is more pronounced as you slide down the rankings. Take White Sox closer David Robertson, for example. His ninth-inning role secure, he is the No. 10 relief pitcher in traditional formats and worth $9. However, when holds are added to the equation, his value plumMets.
5X5 with saves+holds:
Robertson slips to No. 14 in the rankings and is worth only $2. Meanwhile, outstanding non-closers (with superior strikeout, WHIP and ERA projections) Betances (No. 2, $9) and Miller (No. 4, $7) and O'Day (No. 7, $6) vault past him.
It bears repeating, holds leagues skew values toward skill, not role. While Robertson is an excellent relief pitcher, his closer role is what makes him highly valuable in traditional formats. In holds leagues, his skills simply don’t separate him from the pack enough to make him elite — or at least to place him in the top 10.
Before I finish, I wanted to add one tidbit about saves+holds leagues. To record a hold, a pitcher must only record one out in save situation. You know this. What you may not realize, though, is this makes lefties a little more valuable. Often, they are brought in to face just one same-handed batter. They record the out, are removed the game and if their team holds on for the win, record a hold. It’s no coincidence Pirates southpaw Tony Watson’s 75 holds are the most among relievers over the past two seasons or that lefties made up 40 percent of the top 10 last season (Watson, Justin Wilson, Kevin Siegrist, Zach Duke) despite being far out-numbered by righties.
Listen, I’m not advocating that you draft Duke, but if you’re chasing saves+holds come the middle of the season, and all the top options are taken, an effective LOOGY on the waiver wire could help you make up some ground.
