RADIO
The NBA All-Star Break is coming up this week, signifying the beginning of the home stretch for the fantasy season. Now is the time to make some aggressive moves if you're losing, or to load up on some injured players and potential playoff breakouts if you are winning. Buying low and selling high is extremely important at this point in the season. Performances from years past and ADPs from earlier this year no longer hold much meaning--it's all about what a guy is capable of doing in the next two months.
As we look at shooting guards this week, the idea is simple. These players all have value, but you have to assess whether or not they will give you the best chance to win down the stretch. Even though shooting guard is a shallow position, it is imperative that you make the most out of your SG slot on the road to your league championship.
NBA Under-Performing Stars: Shooting Guard Edition
J.J. Redick (SG, LAC)
J.J. Redick was able to emerge this season as a top five shooting guard option. His consistent threes and the absence of Blake Griffin from the Clipper offense have increased his scoring output. With the mediocre performance of shooting guards as a whole, Redick has been a great play over the past few months. Over the past week, Redick has come back down to earth a bit, posting a pair of disappointing single-digit performances. This, along with the eventual return of Blake Griffin to the lineup, makes Redick a somewhat risky option to own down the stretch. Redick's best and only asset will always be his three point shooting and he will never be able to contribute much of anything else. Given the shakiness of his situation and the good performances from the past few months, is it time to sell high on Redick?
Trade him.
Redick really needs to be off your books. He has had a stretch of very good shooting earlier on this season, and his points totals will make even more savvy fantasy owners put up a bid or two. Redick's numbers are still inconsistent and temporary, as his recent performances have dictated. It's important not to overvalue such a one dimensional player, as you can still very well lose in the three-pointers category because it is such an easy position for your opponents to stream with. The best thing to do with Redick right now is to sell high and patch up another position you have been struggling with. Afterwards, hit the waiver wire and pick up a guy like Evan Turner or Archie Goodwin.
Bradley Beal (SG, WAS)
It isn't really fair to say that Bradley Beal is struggling. When Beal has played, he has performed well. The issue is his nagging injuries and his limited minutes for a starter. Beal may very well not see 35 minutes a night for the rest of the reason. Recently, his nights have been capped around 30 minutes, and you should certainly not expect Beal to see many easy points in garbage time situations. With the Wizards going nowhere fast in the Eastern Conference playoff race, Beal looks to be a risky asset heading down the stretch because the Wizards are in no rush to expend him in terms of playing time night after night. It is actually a testament to how much talent he has that he has still been able to average 20.0 points in his last four games. Should you look to use this nice recent play as a bargaining chip to sell high?
Trade him.
This is a tough one because Beal's ROS outlook could head in many different directions. However, the main reason to trade him is that these last four performances Beal has put up should be the best you are going to get out of Beal the rest of the way. He has yet to receive the opportunity to truly breakout as a fantasy star, and this season will once again not be the season that Beal achieves this feat. You should be able to get plenty of value back for Beal based on this good play, as well as his name value. When selling, downplay the minutes restrictions and highlight the high volume of field goal attempts Beal has complemented with his good efficiency as of late. He has shot over 50.4% over the past month, a mark that you and I know should regress back to his overall 45.7% on the year.
Monta Ellis (SG, IND)
Monta Ellis has been a headache to own this season. His lack of consistency has been borderline infuriating. There have been many variations in explanations for why he has struggled. The emergence of C.J. Miles earlier this season was originally a solid explanation, as Ellis had to split minutes with Miles alongside Paul George. However, Miles has regressed and Paul George has even cooled down a bit. With the exception of two throwback performances at the end of January, Ellis has been okay at best. Given his name value and his nice performances still in recent memory, should you look to sell high on Ellis?
Hold him.
It's not like Ellis is a great option to lean on for the rest of the season. The problem is that if you still own Ellis, you probably missed your window of opportunity to sell high. Another owner will see Ellis's recent performances and conclude that Ellis is back to his old ways. However, if you were to own Ellis for the rest of the season, look at the upside. He can still put up great performances on any given night, and can be a great X-factor come playoff time. He's definitely a guy to hold onto if you're in a good position to make the playoffs or if you're sitting in a good spot in your Roto league. If you play H2H and your team looks like it is on the cusp of greatness, look to buy low on Ellis. He has established an acceptable baseline of production, while his ceiling is still very much there.
