Player values are constantly moving targets in daily leagues. A high profile player can put together a couple of big games and see his price tag skyrocket. Likewise, a couple of bad games can lead a player's stock to plummet. The correlation isn't always immediate, leading to some discrepancies in value. Savvy DFS players can take advantage of falling values and avoid inflated prices to find the best value on a given night in the hopes of increased success. In this article, I will identify players whose anticipated value relative to their current price is on the rise, making them desirable targets. I will also name players whose value is dipping below their cost, making them players to fade.

Note: I will only be selecting players who are owned in at least 75% of Yahoo! leagues. Graphs are taken from SportingCharts.com's NBA Daily Fantasy Value Tracker and are indicative of values on 11/21/16.

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DFS Value Risers - Week 5

Ish Smith (PG, DET) - FanDuel $5,400

Smith has remained a fairly consistent source of points and assists, poor shooting percentages aside. A pair of horrible games against the Clippers and Suns early in November contributed to a big slide in his price tag that hasn't rebounded yet. He repeated his 1-9 shooting from the Clippers game once again at Cleveland just four days ago, but he is able to score double digits on most nights. It's obvious he should be avoided against top competition on the road, but Smith is still a solid PG in daily leagues where you don't have to worry about FG%.

Bradley Beal (SG, WAS) FanDuel $5,700

Beal dropped 42 points Monday against Phoenix, so it may be too late to jump on him as a value pick as his price is sure to balloon quickly. Beal's hamstring issue that cost him three games is a thing of the past and he has come back in a big way. He now has back-to-back 30 point games on his resume and has far outplayed his price point. You may have a game or two to capitalize on Beal's recent resurgence.

Klay Thompson (SG, GS) FanDuel $6,000

You knew the slump wouldn't last. The thought of Splash Brother #2 going through a shooting slump seems unfathomable, but his slow start led to a dip in both value and cost. He's picking up the slack big time lately. Thompson has been shooting the ball at a higher rate, averaging 9.2 FGM out of 17.8 FGA in the last five games. He's making four out of nine three-pointers in that span, well above his career averages of 2.6 3PM and 7.6 3PA. Now that he's comfortable in the offense with Kevin Durant as a component, his true value has returned.

Jonas Valanciunas (PF/C, TOR) FanDuel $5,700

The big man in Toronto has inexplicably seen his price fall over the past week, even as his production increases. This will correct itself eventually, but it could be a matter of other centers providing much better value early in the season. Now that players like Hassan Whiteside and Kristaps Porzingis have established themselves as elite options, players like Valanciunas and, to a lesser extent, Rudy Gobert may be better values on a nightly basis. In eleven games this season, Valanciunas is averaging three points and almost two rebounds more than his career average at 14.4 PTS and 10.1 REB per game.

Zach Randolph (PF/C, MEM) FanDuel $5,400

Randolph isn't a starter any more and won't put up the same numbers that fantasy owners are used to seeing from Z-Bo. For that reason, perception of his value has plummeted, while the truth is far different. The graph below shows how steady Randolph has been over the last nine games, collecting at least 10 points and seven rebounds in each contest. He isn't likely to explode for a big game any time soon, but Randolph is a safe play and one of the biggest bangs for the buck at the big man positions.

 

DFS Value Fallers - Week 5

Kemba Walker (PG, CHA) FanDuel $8,200

Walker has emerged as one of the most clutch players in the league and should be an All-Star this season. He is shooting a career high .473 from the field with 3.1 3PM per game. That said, he is becoming pricier by the day because of his increased exposure and that leads to a discrepancy in value versus production. His 40 point, 10 rebound performance against Toronto sent him into a higher price range that may be too steep for DFS players, despite his consistent point production.

Harrison Barnes (SF/PF, DAL) FanDuel $5,900

Barnes has made the most of his move to Dallas, taking advantage of injuries to several Mavs. He is averaging a surprising 21.2 PTS and 5.9 REB each game, but doesn't do a whole lot else for fantasy owners. Once the Mavericks get their key players back, Barnes will see fewer shots and will see his already declining value continue its path downward. In his last five games, Barnes is shooting 41.2%. His price tag isn't too steep, but his ideal value may have peaked two weeks ago.

DeMar DeRozan (SG/SF, TOR) FanDuel $9,300

Just a week ago, De-Ro was leading the NBA in scoring. He's still up there with a career high 31.4 PTS on 44.7% shooting. One rough shooting game against Sacramento aside (blame the new arena), he doesn't appear to be fading. The problem is that his price tag has now surpassed his production, as he is now longer considered a second-tier player. He is a reliable scorer, but that doesn't make him a great value.

Serge Ibaka (PF/C, ORL) FanDuel $5,800

If you notice a huge spike in Ibaka's graph, it's exactly what you think it is. Ibaka's huge game against his former teammates in OKC (31 PTS, 9 REB, 4 BLK) led to an expected spike in cost. If anything, Ibaka has been somewhat overvalued since the first week of the season, but now that margin has grown exponentially. He will get you a fair amount of points in any DFS league, but you'll pay for them.

Greg Monroe (C, MIL) FanDuel $4,800

Rather than stepping up in Khris Middleton's absence this season, Monroe has taken a step back. A huge disappointment already, Monroe has really fallen off the last two weeks. He has only scored in double digits twice and collected double-digit rebounds on three occasions since November began. Worst of all, he hasn't blocked a single shot since Nov. 5. You should know that Monroe is now officially a bench player. Not just coming off the bench either, but glued to the bench. If he does play, it will be limited in minutes and surely production as well. Don't risk using him as a value play - he may not even be in the game on a given night. If he is traded mid-season as rumored, he may quickly turn into a value play again.