RADIO
Between the injury bug and a slew of under-performing stars, the first three weeks of the NFL season have been rather troublesome.
This week’s warning signals piece is going to focus largely on players we’ve talked about already and whether or not it’s officially time to panic. There are also a few new names on here that should raise some eyebrows if they haven’t done so already.
Also, after we go through this week’s list of players I’m going to provide a short little update on the previous week’s guys to see how they’ve progressed.
Five Players Sending Out Warning Signals
Jeremy Hill – RB, CIN
Right off the bat we have a struggling running back that I’ve been talking up since June. It pains me to say it, but I’m already vastly disappointed by his usage thus far. Luckily, a lot of Hill’s struggles seem to be tied to just that--usage. It’s been made clear that the Bengals prefer Giovani Bernard when playing from behind, which can be viewed as both a blessing and a curse. The positive takeaway is that this should mean that the Bengals would prefer to utilize a more ground-based attack centered around Hill, and as long as their defense is able to keep them in the game, he’s their guy. On the other hand, should the offense struggle to run the ball or the team fall into a hole, Bernard will come in as the pass-catching back. That greatly hinders Hill’s PPR value, but it doesn’t mean you should fully panic.
Just take a look around at some of the other highly-drafted running backs thus far, like Marshawn Lynch, C.J. Anderson, DeMarco Murray, and LeSean McCoy; it’s been a brutal year at the position in general. Hell, take a step further down the list with guys like Frank Gore and Alfred Morris not living up to their draft day value and relatively speaking it could be a lot worse for Hill. Personally, I’m not fully panicked yet considering the fact that we still know exactly what his role is in an ideal game. I’m very much on board with trying to buy low on him if you can.
Andrew Luck – QB, IND
So last week I essentially told you to relax and not worry too much about Andrew Luck. My thinking was that every superstar struggles at some point in the season, and it was likely that we had already seen Luck’s worst two performances of the year. Well, he wasn’t as terrible in Week 3 but it’s officially time to be concerned for the length of the season.
I’m sure the big numbers are coming eventually, so it’s difficult for me to do a complete 180 and advocate bailing on him. The big issue is that he’s turning the ball over an awful lot, with seven interceptions and a fumble on the year already. Last year, you could have lived with his high turnover rate considering the amount of touchdowns he was throwing. With just five through three games, I think it’s safe to say that this just isn’t going to be the year Luck can keep pace with Aaron Rodgers (as so many had predicted).
If you can get full value for him, great, but you’re likely stuck with him unless you’d take a low-ball offer. That said, I wouldn’t be opposed to swapping Luck for say Carson Palmer and Brandon Marshall if you need help at wide receiver. Palmer has been superb and Marshall has exceeded expectations with no signs of slowing down. This is a case of poking around your league to see what you can get for him. Just don’t take the first offer that comes your way simply because you’re frustrated.
Calvin Johnson – WR, DET
Another player appearing on this list for the second straight week is Detroit Lions wide receiver Calvin Johnson. After a terrible first week, Johnson’s numbers have improved slightly due to an increased target total. My concern with Megatron isn’t even his talent or usage, it’s the fact that this offense can’t seem to get anything going at all.
Between barely utilizing their best player in Johnson in a Week 1 game they trailed in, some questionable decisions out of the backfield, and an almost-certainly injured Matthew Stafford, I’m not really convinced any Lion has consistent fantasy value this season. That being said, Megatron can go off in any given week. That, in conjunction with the fact that his value is as low as it can possibly be right now, is why you’re going to have to tough this one out. I’m certain the big games are coming and hopefully Stafford is able to come back at full strength sooner rather than later. Unfortunately Detroit heads to Seattle this week for a Monday night game that is likely to be ugly, so it'll likely be one more week before Calvin breaks out.
C.J. Anderson – RB, DEN (and by association, Ronnie Hillman)
Another year of fantasy, another year of not knowing what to make of the Denver backfield. It feels like we do this every September--we talk about how this is an offense that likes to utilize one specific back and how much fantasy value they’ll have with Peyton Manning under center. We eventually settle on one guy only to see him outplayed or shipped off to another team. Now we’re left with the lackluster combination of C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman.
In Anderson’s defense, he keeps getting dinged up and having to head to the sidelines, but even when he’s on the field he hasn’t been productive enough to warrant his first-round draft status. That being said, if either Anderson or Hillman could somehow grab control of the starting gig by outrunning the other, that players would still be a top-12 RB the rest of the way.
Sadly, this backfield looks as flat as a pancake. Honestly, if you have a better RB3 or flex option on your bench, I’d just sit Anderson until he comes around. If your running back corps consists of, say, Melvin Gordon, DeVonta Freeman, and the returning Arian Foster, just bench the Broncos backs until further notice. I’d much rather be a week too early in pulling him than a week too late at this point.
Brandin Cooks – WR, NO
I didn’t want to overload you with repeats this week so I decided to dig a little deeper down the list and look for a player who wasn’t drafted as high as the others but is disappointing all the same. Brandin Cooks has yet to find the endzone or reach 100 yards in a game in an offense that has been struggling on all fronts. Much like the Detroit Lions, I’m not convinced that this is a team that can sustain fantasy value at any position this season.
Still, Cooks did put him his best game of the year so far in Week 3, although that isn’t really saying much. His seven receptions for 79 yards made him a decent PPR play, at least. The expectation, however, was that he'd develop into much more than a PPR guy. With quarterback Drew Brees a week closer to return, I suppose you could cross your fingers, rub your lucky rabbit’s foot and hope that better days are ahead. I think there’s really only two ways to look at Cooks for 2015; he’s either the ultimate buy-low candidate or the prototypical fantasy bust. Unfortunately, I’m more inclined to consider him the latter.
Updates From Last Week
We’ve already touched upon several repeat offenders here so this section will be rather short.
Jimmy Graham – TE, SEA
After a public outcry from both Jimmy Graham himself as well as several media pundits, the Seahawks finally decided to utilize their tight end the way he should be used. His seven receptions for 83 yards and a touchdown should be viewed as a sign of things to come as Seattle looks to bounce back from their rough 0-2 start. It looks like this ship may have been righted at the perfect time.
T.Y. Hilton – WR, IND
See: Luck, Andrew. Everything that applies to Andrew Luck can be applied to T.Y. Hilton. There’s going to be good days and bad days going forward, you’re just going to have to live with it. That said, I’m a little more inclined to consider Hilton a buy-low than Luck, especially for any fantasy teams in need of a wide receiver.
