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You can never win your fantasy league on draft day, but you can lose it - especially if an early rounder doesn't pan out. This is the situation that Kershaw, Tulo, and Cano owners find themselves in. Every single one of them went in the first round in some leagues, and they almost never saw the third, yet they are playing like late round gambles that haven't paid off. If you own these guys, do you hope for better days ahead, or sell for pennies on the dollar? If you don't own them, are they buy low candidates? This is why sabermetrics, and this column, exist: To answer questions like the above.
Clayton Kershaw, SP, LAD
Among the trio on this list, there seems to be the most confidence in a Kershaw rebound, with the logic of "its Clayton Kershaw!" I don't disagree with the conclusion, but would like stronger evidence than "Kershawness". Do advanced stats support an uptick from his current 3-3, 3.86 ERA performance?
In a word, yes. Not only has Kershaw had his share of bad luck, he's had a perfect storm of it - and he has still been decent! He is currently allowing an elevated .335 BABIP overall, a number far higher than both the league average .300 figure as well as his own career .274 mark. This is largely driven by a 28% line drive rate (career 19.9%), a stat known for random fluctuation and correction in season. Likewise, his pop up rate is down from a 12.1% career total to 8.8% this year. Since batters hit only .015 on popups in 2014, more popups are always good for a pitcher. When these normalize, so will the ERA.
His strand rate of 67.5% is also shy of both the league average 71% and his career 77.7% figure. LOB% is usually not regarded as a repeatable skill, but Kershaw would be expected to maintain an above average one because of his elite strikeout rate (11.43 K/9). When the announcers are going on about how a pitcher "needs a strikeout", those with elite K rates have the best chance of actually getting one and stranding the runners on base. Therefore, a pitcher like Kershaw should have the deck stacked in his favor in those situations - a below average mark should be almost impossible for him to maintain. Also not helping is a ludicrous 17.6% HR/FB against a career 6.9% figure. Especially playing in pitcher friendly Dodger Stadium, that number is sure to regress.
The only negative in Kershaw's statistical profile is a slightly higher walk rate (2.20 BB/9 compared to 1.41 last season). While not good, K/9 is also north of last year's 10.85 and most fantasy owners would take extra strikeouts at the expense of a couple more walks. O-Swing% is also down (37% last year to 31.9% this), but last year was the outlier as his career mark is "only" 30.4%. Overall, contact against the Dodgers' ace is down 1%. He has not changed his pitch selection and his fastball is averaging slightly more velocity than it did last season (92.9% to 93.4%). FIP also continues to believe in the Dodger, with a 2.61 figure. This is the same pitcher that was a first round selection in March, and that makes him a . . .
Verdict: Champ
Troy Tulowitzki, SS, COL
The most valued hitter in baseball on a per PA basis heading into 2015, Colorado's Toolbox has posted a mediocre triple slash line of .272/.288/.415 with two bombs on the season. BABIP is not to blame, as it stands at an elevated .336 against a career norm of .320 (Coors Field inflates BABIP). Instead, the problem seems to be a complete erosion of Tulo's plate discipline - the walk rate is down to 2.6% (career 9.8%) while the K rate has soared (22.2% against 16% career). These result driven figures are supported by more advanced analytics, as Tulo is swinging at more pitches outside of the strike zone (28.3% to 36.5%) while swinging and missing at more pitches overall (SwStr% up from 7.1% to 10.9%). His O-Contact% is also down (66.7% from 71.8% last year), as is his Z-Contact% (89.6% to 84.3%). Clearly there is a problem here.
That is not to say that all hope is lost. Tulo's 4.3% HR/FB is extremely low for a proven power hitter at Coors Field, and is due for correction. His 44.3% Hard% would also be a career best, as would his current 13.9% Soft%. This would seem to be a good sign, even if the stat has no known predictive qualities. Still, the plate discipline remains a problem. It really shouldn't be, however, as plate discipline is one of the skills that historically ages well - even if Tulo's myriad of injuries have prematurely aged him, he should not forget his knowledge of the zone.
This is entirely speculative, but I think that the Rockies' best player is simply trying too hard to be the savior that the franchise desperately needs. He is swinging at too many pitches outside of the zone because he feels that if he is not the hero, no one else will be. Of course, that mindset does not work in baseball, and his numbers have declined as a result. As long as he keeps doing this (and factoring in draft day cost), Tulo may well be a Chump for the rest of the season. However, if the oft rumored trade were to take place and Tulo is sent to a team already strong enough to contend, he would have no more reason to press and the plate discipline - a skill that should not randomly vanish - should return. That would likely make him one of the best players in the game again, and an intriguing buy low as losing Coors as a home park would be seen by most as a detriment to his value. Therefore, he gets a conditional verdict.
Verdict: Chump (as a Rockie), Champ (if traded)
Robinson Cano (2B, SEA)
That brings us to the struggling early rounder that I personally invested in. Cano's triple slash line of .253/.295/.337 with one homer is nothing if not disappointing, and the double digit SBs from last year have also disappeared (one thus far). Like Tulo, a large part of the problem is eroding plate discipline - walks are down (career 6.3%, 5.3% so far) while strikeouts are up (career 11.9%, 16.3% thus far). Once again, this is supported by advanced metrics: O-Contact% (77.4% to 69.1%), Z-Contact% (94.4% to 89.6%), and overall contact% (87.2% to 82%) are all down compared to last season, while whiff rate is up (6.2% to 9.0%). Cano's HR/FB is also pathetic at 2.8% (career 13.5%). While Safeco Field is not helping as many balls go out as Yankee Stadium did, that is a significant power drought.
The HR/FB should therefore normalize to at least the league average 10%, but that still won't garner Cano too many bombs. After becoming a Mariner last season, Cano saw a huge spike in his groundball rate (52.6% compared to 44.3% in his last year as a Yankee). So far this year, Cano has maintained the grounders at a 52% clip. This leads me to wonder if Cano intentionally changed his approach to better fit with his new spacious stadium - unlike Nelson Cruz, Cano was never a one dimensional power guy and has chosen, perhaps, to focus on the parts of his game that his ballpark does not actively work against. With BABIP luck and his slot in the middle of the Seattle batting order, Cano could rack up 100 RBI with fewer than 20 bombs, as he did last season. This would also explain how stealing bases turned into something he did - Safeco invites it more than Yankee Stadium.
That game depends on BABIP luck, as the ball bouncing unfavorably leads to the kind of dismal start that qualified Cano for this column. While Cano's current BABIP of .299 seems luck neutral, his elevated line drive rate suggests that it should be higher (currently 23.6%, career 21.3%). When that regresses, Cano could be outright bad instead of merely disappointing. He has also been lucky on flyballs in play (BABIP of .229, career .165), meaning that it is at least as easy to see Cano getting worse as better. Essentially, he seems to be trying to do what Nick Markakis did in his last years with Baltimore - batting average his way to high RBI totals through his spot in the order. Was Markakis an elite fantasy option then? No, he went undrafted. Positional scarcity will ensure that Cano is always rostered, but as an elite he has sadly become a . . .
Verdict: Chump
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