Predicting Adrian Peterson's Performance in 2015 and Beyond

Over the past year there has been perhaps no more interesting and ever-changing storyline than the roller coaster ride that Adrian Peterson has been on. While much has been made about what the appropriate punishment should have been and whose morals and ethics determine what’s right and wrong with guaranteed money in contracts and how to discipline children, very few have been discussing what Peterson’s impact will be on the field for a team that likely would have competed for a playoff spot if he hadn’t derailed an already tumultuous season for the Vikings.

In order to better understand how Peterson should perform in 2015 and beyond as a 30-year-old running back, it is appropriate to look at other running backs and how they performed over 30. Emmitt Smith, Walter Payton and Eric Dickerson will be the three all-time greats looked at and LaDainian Tomlinson, Frank Gore and Steven Jackson will be the three more recent examples looked at. Studying Smith, Payton and Dickerson is fair when looking at Peterson because when his career is all said and done (10K+ rushing yards, 91 total TD, 5.0 YPC and growing) he will be enshrined in Canton.

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Emmitt Smith

Age 21-28: Smith rarely missed a game, and other than his rookie and ninth season, ran for over 1,200 yards every year. From age 23-26, Smith basically averaged over 100 YPG and 18.25 TD per season. He was named to six Pro Bowls in that time.

Age	YDs	TDs	YPC	YDs%	TDs%	YPC%
29	1,332	4	4.2
30	1,397	13	4.2	105%	325%	100%
31	1203	9	3.1	86%	69%	74%
32	1021	3	3.9	85%	33%	126%
33	975	5	3.8	96%%	167%	97%
34	256	2	2.8	26%	40%	74%
35	937	9	3.5	366%	450%	125%

Note: The YDs%, TDs%, and YPC% columns refer to performance that year vs the previous year.
 

Walter Payton

Age 21-28: Excluding his rookie season and his 1982 season, where he started in 7 and 9 games respectively, Payton was one of the most dominant running backs of his era, rushing consistently over 1,300 yards and running for 1,852 yards in 1977. In his early twenties, double digit touchdowns in a season were a regular occurrence.

Age	YDs	TDs	YPC	YDs%	TDs%	YPC%
29	1421	6	4.5
30	1684	11	4.4	119%	183%	97%
31	1551	9	4.8	92%	82%	109%
32	1333	8	4.2	86%	89%	88%
33	533	4	3.7	42%	50%	88%

 

Eric Dickerson

Age 23-28: Dickerson was named to five Pro Bowls in his first six years, missing minimal playing time due to injuries. His WORST season was his 1987 where he ran for 1,288 YDS and 6 TD. Dickerson often ran for over double digit touchdowns in a season and ran for over 1,600 YDs four times in his first six seasons, hitting the all-time single season rushing total with 2,105 YDS in his sophomore campaign in 1984.

Age	YDs	TDs	YPC	YDs%	TDs%	YPC%
29	1311	7	4.2
30	677	4	4.1	52%	57%	97%
31	536	2	3.2	79%	50%	78%
32	729	2	3.9	136%	100%	122%
33	91	0	3.5	12.50%	0%	89%

 

LaDainian Tomlinson

Age 22-28: Tomlinson was named to five Pro Bowls in his first seven seasons. A typical LT season was an average of over 1,520 YDS and 16 TDS before he hit age 29.

Age	YDs	TDs	YPC	YDs%	TDs%	YPC%
29	1110	11	3.8
30	730	12	3.3	66%	109%	87%
31	914	6	4.2	125%	50%	127%
32	280	1	3.7	31%	16%	88%

 

Frank Gore

Age 22-28: Gore was named to two Pro Bowls in his first seven seasons. While he wasn’t showered with yearly accolades, Gore has been more about consistency, rushing for over 1,000 YDS in every season that he has played over 11 games in.

Age	YDs	TDs	YPC	YDs%	TDs%	YPC%
29	1214	8	4.7
30	1128	9	4.1	93%	113%	87%
31	1106	4	4.3	98%	44%	105%

 

Steven Jackson

Age 21-28: Jackson was named to three Pro Bowls in his first eight seasons. He averaged over 1,000 yards and contributed over 6 rushing TD per year, rushing for 13 at age 23 in 2006.

Age	YDs	TDs	YPC	YDs%	TDs%	YPC%
29	1045	4	4.1
30	543	6	3.5	52%	150%	85%
31	707	6	3.7	130%	100%	106%

 

Average Percentage Growth/Decline for All Six Players

Age	YDs%	TDs%	YPC%
30	80.98%	156.00%	92.17%
31	101.67%	65.80%	99.75%
32	84.43%	59.48%	98.63%
33	49.83%	72.33%	91.36%

 

Applying Statistics To Adrian Peterson

Because Peterson only played in one game during the 2014 season, his 2013 season will be used as his last season for statistical purposes.

2013: 14 G, 1,266 YDS, 10 TD, 4.5 YPC
2013 (Stats adjusted for 16 games): 1,447 YDS, 11.43 TD, 4.5 YPC

Age	YDs	TDs	YPC
30	1171	17	4.1
31	1190	11	4.1
32	1005	6	4.0
33	501	5	3.7

 

Obviously these statistics assume a lot, such as an older running back remaining healthy for all 16 games. They also just factor in six players, however it is a good mix of recent running backs and all-time greats. Adrian Peterson should qualify as an all-time great given he ranks 28th all-time in total rushing yards and 14th all-time in total rushing touchdowns and still has multiple years to move up even higher on the list. Also, while there are a plethora of factors that could influence Peterson’s performance such as the play of the offensive line, the continued maturation of Teddy Bridgewater and his own contract, this study at least gives fans an idea of what to expect if Peterson follows the same decline as other running backs did post-30.

To bring everything back to a fantasy football perspective, based off the projections this is how Adrian Peterson will fare in each upcoming season in a standard scoring league. The table below will show where Peterson will rank and shows which 2014 player he was most similar to from a production standpoint. (factoring in 30 additional points for receiving yards and receiving touchdowns; Peterson over his career has averaged 242 YDS and 1 TD through the air each season which equals 30 points).

Age	Points	Rank vs 2014 RBs	Rank vs 2014 OVR
30	255	3rd Behind Le'Veon Bell	14th Behind Tony Romo
31	221	6th Behind Eddie Lacy	T-25 Behind Demaryius Thomas
32	172	9th Behind Justin Forsett	T-40th Behind Derek Carr
33	110	T-25th Behind Tre Mason	T-130th Behind Michael Floyd

 

Conclusion

Based on the study, Peterson should continue being a very productive running back on the field and in your fantasy football league for about three more years. However, the trouble with trying to quantify the production of Adrian Peterson gets murky when your factor in that he essentially missed an entire season, meaning his legs and body don’t necessarily have all of the wear and tear that a normal 30 year old running back would have, which could elongate Peterson's production and his career.

Also while the Vikings offensive line has been below-average and is in the process of changing, John Sullivan, Brandon Fusco and Phil Loadholt are all good-to-great offensive lineman. Factor in that while Matt Kalil has been mostly terrible for two seasons, he was near elite in his rookie season. Now that the mediocre left guard Charlie Johnson is no longer on the team, perhaps Kalil can rekindle the magic he had in his first season. Additionally young, talented players like T.J. Clemmings, Tyrus Thompson and David Yankey all could fight for the remaining guard spot or take over if Kalil plays poorly, giving the offensive line some flexibility and making it more efficient than it has been in years past, which could mean that Peterson can be even more productive.

Here's a list for you: Brooks Bollinger, Kelly Holcomb, Christian Ponder, Josh Freeman, Gus Frerotte, Donovan McNabb, Joe Webb, Brett Favre, Matt Cassel, Tarvaris Jackson. What do all of these quarterbacks have in common? All ten of them have played with Adrian Peterson during his seven years in Minnesota. With the exception of Favre in 2009, no quarterback has been remotely effectivem meaning that Peterson, since his rookie season, has accumulated his statistics with eight, nine and sometimes even ten guys in “the box”. Now that the Vikings have a mature, up-and-coming and productive quarterback in Teddy Bridgewater, Peterson will no longer have to deal with so many opposing players focusing on him. Kyle Rudolph, Mike Wallace and a solid rotation of role receivers like Jarius Wright, Charles Johnson, Adam Thielen and Cordarrelle Patterson should mean that Peterson has the opportunity to be even more productive than he has ever been.

Additionally, an intangible that can’t be measured or compared to other running backs is the fact that Peterson is one of the most athletic, god given freaks the NFL has ever seen, if not the greatest. Peterson literally changed the landscape of the NFL from December of 2011 to January of 2013 when he came back from a torn ACL and MCL in only eight months and had the best season any running back has ever had, propelling a bad Vikings team into the playoffs. While Eric Dickerson still holds the all-time single season rushing record, Peterson was only eight yards short and was only one total touchdown short of Dickerson that season. Peterson was significantly more effective though as he had 31 fewer rushing attempts with a 6.0 YPC while Dickerson had a 4.5 YPC.

Given that Adrian Peterson is not like the normal running back, while we can only use the statistics provided by other running backs to attempt to determine what degree of success he can have in 2015 and beyond, there is no reason to believe that Peterson can’t play just as long as Emmitt Smith and have a shot at breaking the all-time career rushing record. As far as the immediate future is concerned, Peterson's ready to be a RB1 again and should be one of the first players off the board in every fantasy football league.

 

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