It’s time for another installment of the December edition of RotoBaller’s 2016 fantasy baseball rankings, December edition. If you missed yesterday’s outfield analysis, click here. Today, we’ll discuss the outfielders that I’m bearish on for next season, relative to my colleagues (again, Brad Johnson, Nick Mariano, and Max Petrie also participated in this round of rankings).

Programming reminder: These rankings were originally submitted on December 6. Transactions since that time may not be reflected in our valuations. However, we'll be releasing updates as the offseason progresses.

Make sure you read more of our 2016 fantasy baseball rankings analysis including dynasty leagues, prospect ranks, and tiers for all positions.

 

Adam Jones

My rank: 21 | High: 11 | Overall: 15

Brad and I are of like minds on Jones, but Max and Nick have him in the top 12. They must not have noticed that his numbers are trending down in every 5x5 category:

Season	AVG	R	HR	RBI	SB
2013	.285	100	33	108	14
2014	.281	88	29	96	7
2015	.269	74	27	82	3

 

Jones remains a productive player and a worthwhile fantasy investment, to be sure. But with those declines in batting average, runs, and stolen bases, Jones isn’t the five-category asset he used to be. For me, that’s enough to slot him in as an OF2 instead of a truly elite option.

 

Carlos Gomez

My rank: 24 | High: 12 | Overall: 19

Here’s another guy that split the panel. This time I’m joined in my pessimism by Nick, while the others have him at 12 and 14. Like Jones, Gomez has seen his batting average and steals drop over the past few seasons. Unlike Jones, Gomez also suffered from a power outage in 2015, as his home run total was nearly cut in half. That’s partly attributable to Gomez battling myriad injuries throughout the year. Maybe you’re willing to give him the benefit of the doubt and expect the power to return. But given that he just turned 30, it’s fair to be skeptical of him gaining back the 30+ points of BABIP he lost, or stealing 30 bases.

 

Jacoby Ellsbury

My rank: 32 | High: 24 | Overall: 26

Remember 2011, when Ellsbury was an absolute monster? He hit .321/.376/.522, with 32 homers, 39 steals, and 224 R+RBI. The power predictably turned out to be a mirage; he’s hit 36 homers combined in the four seasons since. You probably don’t need me to tell you that. But Ellsbury has also seen his stolen base totals decline from 52 to 39 to 21 over the last three seasons. He’s hit above .271 just once since that out of nowhere elite season. Most importantly, he’s continued to have trouble staying healthy. Ellsbury has missed a third of his team’s games going back to 2010. There’s no reason to expect him to avoid injury in his age-32 season, and his best tool – his speed – has pretty clearly been sapped by injury and age.

 

Brandon Moss

My rank: 71 | High: 49 | Overall: 60

Moss had 21 home runs and an .878 OPS at the All-Star break in 2014. In the season and a half since, he’s hit 23 homers and posted a .625 OPS. Here are his slugging percentages from the last four years: .596, .522, .438, .407. He’s always been a batting average liability thanks to high strikeout rates. Without the power to offset that, he’s not worth rostering in all but the deepest mixed leagues - and I'm not prepared to bet on a bounceback for him at age 32.

 

Outfield Rankings for 2016 Fantasy Baseball

Name	Brad	Max	Kyle	Nick	Composite
Mike Trout	1	1	1	1	1
Bryce Harper	2	2	2	2	2
Giancarlo Stanton	4	3	3	3	3.25
Andrew McCutchen	3	4	4	4	3.75
Jose Bautista	7	5	6	5	5.75
George Springer	5	9	5	6	6.25
A.J. Pollock	6	6	8	7	6.75
Starling Marte	10	8	7	10	8.75
Ryan Braun	11	7	9	8	8.75
Mookie Betts	8	10	10	9	9.25
J.D. Martinez	9	13	11	11	11
Justin Upton	14	12	12	15	13.25
Charlie Blackmon	13	19	13	14	14.75
Nelson Cruz	15	16	15	16	15.5
Adam Jones	20	11	21	12	16
Kyle Schwarber	16	15	16	19	16.5
Lorenzo Cain	19	20	14	17	17.5
Carlos Gonzalez	17	18	19	18	18
Carlos Gomez	12	14	24	23	18.25
Yoenis Cespedes	25	21	17	13	19
Jason Heyward	18	17	20	24	19.75
Yasiel Puig	23	22	18	25	22
Corey Dickerson	22	26	22	21	22.75
Hunter Pence	28	28	23	20	24.75
Brett Gardner	27	27	27	28	27.25
Jacoby Ellsbury	24	24	32	29	27.25
Curtis Granderson	31	33	28	26	29.5
Kole Calhoun	29	30	33	32	31
Alex Gordon	26	32	35	33	31.5
Matt Holliday	38	29	30	31	32
Michael Brantley	46	23	37	22	32
David Peralta	36	41	25	27	32.25
Jorge Soler	40	36	31	30	34.25
Joc Pederson	34	42	26	38	35
Christian Yelich	30	37	39	34	35
Billy Hamilton	21	25	45	50	35.25
Josh Reddick	33	40	36	35	36
Shin-Soo Choo	35	34	38	37	36
Matt Kemp	39	31	42	43	38.75
Gregory Polanco	42	35	41	41	39.75
Michael Conforto	32	38	43	46	39.75
Stephen Piscotty	37	39	48	36	40
Adam Eaton	47	44	29	44	41
Randal Grichuk	41	50	34	42	41.75
Dexter Fowler	44	45	40	39	42
Hanley Ramirez	45	43	44	40	43
Steven Souza	53	47	47	47	48.5
Ender Inciarte	57	46	46	52	50.25
Khris Davis	63	49	52	45	52.25
Ben Revere	52	60	49	51	53
Ben Zobrist	51	51	57	53	53
Kevin Pillar	62	53	51	48	53.5
Jayson Werth	48	62	53	54	54.25
Delino Deshields	65	48	56	49	54.5
Melky Cabrera	54	52	58	56	55
Billy Burns	60	54	54	58	56.5
Marcell Ozuna	67	55	50	55	56.75
Wil Myers	68	56	55	57	59
Aaron Hicks	43	68	69	65	61.25
Brandon Moss	49	61	71	66	61.75
Aaron Altherr	59	69	60	60	62
Cameron Maybin	70	58	61	59	62
Odubel Herrera	55	66	59	71	62.75
Carlos Beltran	61	67	62	61	62.75
Eddie Rosario	58	64	66	63	62.75
Rusney Castillo	69	57	63	67	64
Jay Bruce	64	63	67	62	64
Colby Rasmus	56	74	65	64	64.75
Gerardo Parra	71	59	64	68	65.5
Danny Valencia	50	65	78	72	66.25
Mark Trumbo	76	75	68	69	72
Marlon Byrd	79	76	72	73	75
Byron Buxton	75	78	73	75	75.25
Denard Span	74	72	85	74	76.25
Brad Miller	66	70	70		---
Anthony Gose			77		---
Kevin Kiermaier	83	83	74		---
Derek Dietrich	77	79	75		---
Chris Colabello	82		76	70	---
Andre Ethier	85		79		---
Brock Holt	78	80	80		---
Mark Canha			81		---
Michael Taylor	86	81	82		---
Domingo Santana	80	82	83		---
Enrique Hernandez			84		---
Nori Aoki	73	71	86		---
Austin Jackson	72	88	87		---
Eduardo Escobar		87	88		---
Franklin Gutierrez			89		---
Preston Tucker		84	90		---
Jackie Bradley Jr.		86			---
Chris Coghlan	84	85			---
Nick Markakis	87	89			---
Michael Cuddyer	81				---
Alex Rios	88	90			---
Yasmany Tomas		73			---

 

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