RADIO
Background
Between Dylan Bundy’s injuries and Kevin Gausman’s ascension, it is easy for non-Orioles fans to forget about or discount Bundy. Opposing GMs have not, as most reported trade rumors note a request for Bundy. Those discussions end shortly thereafter and with good reason. When healthy, Bundy is potentially a generational talent. While Gausman is extremely impressive, scouts project Bundy’s upside to be even higher.
Selected out of high school, Bundy was seen as more MLB ready than many of his peers due to his extreme work ethic. And he was well on his way. He received a cup of coffee in 2012 at the age of 19, after dominating the minors. He was expected to start his major league career in 2013, but his elbow had other plans. He missed the entire 2013 season due to Tommy John surgery. He quickly worked his way back and was able to make nine minor league appearances in 2014.
Because Bundy signed a major-league deal, 2015 is his last option year. Translation: he will be with the major league club permanently starting at the latest in 2016 unless he is waived, traded, or injured. That timing works out well for the Orioles, as both Bud Norris and Wei-Yin Chen’s contracts expire this year. As explained below, for dynasty and keeper leagues, now is the time to buy low on Bundy.
Performance to Date
In 2012, at age 19, Bundy dominated the minors. Over 103.2 innings between Single-A and Double-A, he struck out 119, walked only 28, posted a 0.916 WHIP, and a 2.08 ERA. He eventually pitched 1.2 shutout innings in the majors. He produced these numbers with the organization reportedly not allowing him to throw his best pitch – the cutter.
Unfortunately, he missed the entire 2013 season due to Tommy John Surgery. In 2014, Bundy had somewhat disappointing overall numbers of 41.1 innings - 37 strikeouts, 16 walks, and a 1.31 WHIP between Low-A and High-A. After Bundy breezed through Low-A, with 22 strikeouts, three walks, and one run in 15 innings, he struggled with his jump to High-A. In 26.1 innings, he struck out 15 and walked 13 with a 4.78 ERA.
It appeared he was struggling with his arm strength which may have caused control issues. In his final start, he struck out seven and walked none in 4.1 shutout innings, before being shut down for the year with a lat injury. He now claims to have his full arm strength back well in advance of the 2015 season. His 2014 numbers should be viewed with a grain of salt since he was returning from injury.
Scouting Reports on Bundy
Bundy is a 6’1, 195-210 pound right-hander, with powerful legs built like tree-trunks. He is well-known for his strong work ethic. Baseball talent runs in the family, as his brother is also a pitcher in the organization. Baseball America gave him the following prospect rankings before 2012, 2013, and 2014, respectively: 10, 2, 15. Before the injury, he possessed a mid-to-high 90's fastball that reached 100 mph at times and a cutter that some scouts rated as a perfect 80 on the 20-80 scouting scale. In addition to those two pitches, Bundy has worked to develop a plus 12-6 curve, and a passable changeup.
In 2014, Bundy lost about five mph on his fastball and his cutter lacked the same deadly movement. Apparently, he was finally allowed to throw the cutter. He struggled with command, which could be due to not trusting his stuff rather than a lack of ability to control his pitches. One would expect his fastball velocity and cutter movement to return in 2015, two years removed from Tommy John surgery, but it is definitely worth watching. His control is decent but could stand to improve.
What Can We Expect
It is important to keep an eye on Bundy’s continued recovery to make sure he has regained his pre-injury form. In any event, if he is available in a dynasty or keeper league, GET HIM NOW. While his risk of future injury is real and should be considered, a healthy Bundy figures to be one of the safer prospect bets.
Bundy will likely find himself in the Orioles’ bullpen later this year, but he does not have much value in re-draft leagues. However, the Orioles may limit him early in the year to allow him a spot in the rotation later this season if injuries dictate. By 2016, he should be a permanent rotation fixture and has the upside of a true ace.
