RADIO
Following Tom Brady's four-game suspension on last month, many fantasy owners are left wondering what to do with star players on Draft Day. Ultimately the decision is your own, but today I'll examine some strategies for how to handle suspended studs.
Does Total Production Matter?
Let's dive into the Le'Veon Bell suspension first. Bell is going to miss the first three games of the season thanks to a marijuana possession charge (a nonsensical issue in my opinion, but that's a conversation for another day). There is a strong argument that Bell was the fantasy MVP last season, totaling 2,215 yards from scrimmage and 11 touchdowns. That was, of course, across 16 games. So let's assume he'll have similar ratios and project for 13 games--you get 1,799 yards from scrimmage and 8.9 touchdowns (we'll round up to nine). Those are STILL All-Pro numbers. Compare that to Justin Forsett, whose late-career breakout last year yielded 1,529 yards from scrimmage and eight touchdowns. At the end of the 2015 season, it's a pretty safe bet that Bell will end up a top five running back.
But ultimately, fantasy football is a weekly game. Head-to-head is the most common format, and it's difficult to justify using your first-round pick on a player who you won't have for the first three match-ups. You could quickly find yourself 0-3, and Bell's production from there on out may not be enough to help you climb back into the playoffs.
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Production Versus Replacements
Now we'll look at Brady. In most formats, quarterbacks end up scoring the most points at the end of the season. Last year, Brady had an un-Brady-like season, as the Patriots got off to an extremely slow start before figuring things out. I don't anticipate this veteran repeating that trend, and he should improve on his passing totals. We'll use last year's numbers (4,109 passing yards and 33 TDs) and allow for a little improvement based off more recent years- let's make it a nice round 4,500 yards and 38 TDs. If you project that out across 12 games, you end up with 3,375 yards and 28.5 (we'll round up to 29) TDs. That's an average of 281 yards and 2.4 touchdowns per game. We'll compare that to a player you might take in the same round given his new array of weapons--Eli Manning. Over 16 games he average 275 yards and 1.9 touchdowns. I expect Eli to improve a bit on the touchdowns now that he'll have a full season of Odell Beckham Jr. and Victor Cruz- round up to 290 yards and 2.5 touchdowns per game. That's a very small difference, less than one point per week in most leagues.
Making The Call
Here's where the decision becomes yours- do you take a guy like Brady or Bell early on in the draft, and slug it out for 3-4 weeks to reap the rewards in the final 12-13? Or is it wiser to take a replacement-level player and get consistent yet inferior production?
I am all about the consistency. Le'Veon Bell is arguably the best player in football, no doubt about it. But I simply can't burn my first-rounder on him (which you most definitely WILL have to do) and wait it out. Brady is an even easier call, as the difference in performance between him and a good number of other quarterbacks is much smaller than the difference between Bell and a character like Forsett.
The official @Roto_Dubs position is to pass on these players and let someone else suffer from the suspensions. In head-to-head match-ups, every week matters, and I won't take the hit through what is essentially a quarter of the season just to have a boost the rest of the way. 20 points per game is nice, but I'll take 16 weeks of 12-15. Don't get suckered in by the gaudy numbers--take the player that will produce all season long.
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