All is well on draft day as fantasy owners in leagues of all stakes and sizes scan their rosters and smile.

There’s Jamaal Charles, winking from the RB1 spot, the type of bell cow that heads a championship unit. Yes, Le’Veon Bell might be down two games due to his penchant for a certain plant, but that number one overall pick will surely pay off in spades down the road. Dez Bryant has a new contract, top wideout on a team with Super Bowl aspirations…what’s not to like?

Eddie Lacy is undoubtedly primed to build on a strong sophomore campaign. How about C.J. Anderson, slated to carry the load for his ailing quarterback? Oh, and what a brilliant move to steal Arian Foster in the fourth round! Three games tops before that groin heals up and he’s an elite back again.

By the way, who is Devonta Freeman?

Yes, the precious hours after your draft are a time for unmitigated optimism. It’s your favorite day of the year, as you drink beer with your buddies while carefully constructing the squad that will dominate them through December.

Draft day may trump Christmas in the minds of many fantasy enthusiasts, but it is decidedly unlike Christmas in this respect: Santa Claus doesn’t turn up again, weeks later, and smash your toys to smithereens.

 

The Dangers of Drafting Early

In the bastion of bragging rights that is the keeper league I share with college friends, it took less than 48 hours for one league member to have their draft day elation shattered. We allow up to three keepers per team, with the following caveats: a player may only be kept for three years maximum, and he has to be drafted in the fourth round or later to be keeper-eligible.

Circumstances necessitated an uncomfortably early August 14 draft date. One friend of mine, a fellow by the name of BJ (insert your own jokes here), was seemingly fortunate to have Jordy Nelson in his keeper stable.  He augmented Nelson with Julio Jones and Aaron Rodgers as his first two selections.

The next day, BJ texted our group chat: “Did anyone else wake up today, and think, wow…my team is dominant?”

24 hours later, Jordy collapsed in Pittsburgh with a torn ACL, his season over before it started. Since BJ is the reigning league champion, no one felt the slightest bit of compassion for him. His “dominant” team is currently 4-4 and in sixth place.

 

Mid-Season Injuries & Underperformance

Then again, I’m in no position to cackle at his predicament. I drafted Dez Bryant, Melvin Gordon, and Ben Roethlisberger. I’m 2-6. If that team was a house, I’d be crying face down in the wreckage.

So yes, what you see on draft day is little more than an illusion. Do everything in your power to build a solid foundation, but know that a series of natural disasters can easily reduce it to rubble.

With eight weeks behind us and playoffs on the horizon, now is an excellent time to examine where the fickle friend we call fantasy football has led us in 2015.

First, let me acknowledge the huge egg splattered on my face: earlier this season, I wrote a scathing piece in which I derided Andy Dalton as nothing more than a mediocre back-up option. In fact, I advocated drafting the recently-benched Colin Kaepernick ahead of him. One week into the season, I was forced to pick up Dalton in one of my leagues to replace Tony Romo. He has been my leading scorer in almost every week since. I’m sorry, Andy. You’re the man.

Pre-season prognosticators were, however, correct to caution against drafting Peyton Manning, the one-time titan who has been outscored by such fantasy luminaries as Kirk Cousins and Josh McCown.  Pour some out for Peyton Manning, fantasy stud. He ain’t coming back.

Peyton’s demise isn’t a surprise, but the foibles of his replacement in Indianapolis have been. Hang on, I’m trying to come up with a pun for this. Um…if you drafted Andrew, you’re out of Luck. How’s that? Lame? Okay, let’s just move on.

Let’s pause here for a moment of silence in honor of Keenan Allen and Steve Smith, Sr. Gone too soon.

 

The Comeback Kids

I would oppose Drew Brees in two leagues the week he reminds us that, yeah, he’s still Drew Brees.

A friend of mine asked last summer: “What was the guy’s name in Tampa Bay who they called ‘Muscle Hamster?’ ” I replied that Doug Martin would probably be upset to know that he was already being referred to in the past tense. I can’t say for sure that Doug is monitoring every group chat in the nation, but something lit a fire under him heading into this season. Martin has returned to fantasy prominence in style, piling up 96.80 points to date, third-best among running backs.

The Muscle Hamster (he hates that nickname, by the way) is not alone as a running back revelation this season. Chris Ivory, Danny Woodhead, and previously presumed fantasy corpse Chris Johnson all rank among the top-10 at their position. Meanwhile, DeMarco Murray is languishing in 20^th without the benefit of the dominant Dallas offensive line he excelled behind last season.

Injuries, as usual, have wreaked havoc on the make-up of the NFL’s running back ranks. As a Jamaal Charles owner, I immediately broke into a cold sweat when I heard the words “non-contact” to describe his Week 5 injury. As a Steeler fan, I watched Le’veon Bell go down last week and spent the entire second half crying in the bathroom. As a Matt Forte owner, I…I don’t even know. Please come back, Matt.

 

Surprises, Both Pleasant & Upsetting

Seriously, though, who the hell is Devonta Freeman?

Also, has any player ever had a wider fantasy production/quarterback quality disparity than DeAndre Hopkins? I’m pretty sure Shane Falco was throwing him the rock at one point this season, yet the third-year man down in Houston trails only Julio Jones in standard-league points scored amongst all wide receivers. Third? Larry Fitzgerald. And the year is 2015! Unbelievable.

Antonio Brown, the consensus top receiver heading into the season, saw torrid early-season production tempered by the loss of quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. Breathe, Brown owners. Your stud is back in full effect.

RIP, Denver’s high-flying offense, since Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders rank 21^st and 23^rd in points amongst wide receivers. Solid production, sure, but well short of their draft day expectations. Thanks a lot, Peyton. Thomas and Sanders have been outscored by the Miami tandem of Jarvis Landry and Rishard Matthews.

Frankly, as a Jordan Cameron owner in multiple leagues, I’m fed up with the tight end position. At least I didn’t waste a high-round pick on Jimmy Graham.

Gary Barnidge had all of 40 career catches heading into 2015. Baffingly, inexplicably, Barnidge has grabbed 44 balls this season for six touchdowns this season. If I had a time machine, the first thing I’d do is go back to August 14, furiously scribble out Cameron’s name, and write “Gary Barnidge” in its place. If only.

Alright, raise your hand if you were the first person in your league to select a defense. Ok, clap if you took Seattle. (Insert thunderous applause). Now, clap if you took Denver. (Insert crickets).

Finally, a quick note on the kicker position: someone in one of my leagues (probably not coincidentally, the same person who took Matt Stafford 15^th overall) dropped Stephen Gostkowski mid-season. I almost broke my computer in my haste to pick him up.

There you have it. Eight weeks of the 2015 season are in the books. Injuries, breakout players, major disappointments…it’s all there, like it always is.

Good luck to everyone the rest of the way. Peace, love, and fantasy.

 

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