RADIO
If you're still hanging around to read Warning Signals ahead of week 12 I have to assume that you're alive and well in the playoff hunt. With most fantasy leagues wrapping up their regular season in week 13, there isn't much time left to put together a late season charge. It's for that reason this week's piece is going to focus largely on players that warrant starting consideration as we inch closer to the playoffs.
Generally you'll want to stick with your studs this deep into the season but that doesn't mean there aren't any players out there who can be swayed onto your bench if the matchup doesn't line up properly. As the old saying goes, dance with who brought you...unless your partner can't dance and there's a much more attractive, compatible option waiting for you near the punch bowl.
One last little disclaimer before we dive into this week's players: you know your team better than I do. Just because someone has a tough schedule ahead of them doesn't mean you automatically need to yank them from your lineup. I say this now because in my experience as a fantasy analyst a lot of owners tend to overlook the obvious in that every league is different. Now's not the time to over think your lineup so don't start tinkering with success. That may sound simple but you'd be amazed how many people end up getting too far into their own head and knock themselves out of the playoffs. It's the homestretch, have confidence in what's kept you in it this long.
Running Backs Sending Out Warning Signals
Lamar Miller – RB, MIA
If you've read anything I've written about running backs this year you know I'm a big Lamar Miller fan. The change in head coach from Joe Philbin to Dan Campbell worked wonders for Miller. Unfortunately, Miller is now coming off of his worse performance since week four. Throw in the increased workload for rookie Jay Ajayi and I would understand if you're concerned about depending on Miller for the fantasy playoffs. That said, I think the panic is a bit premature.
Here's an interesting stat that shouldn't really come as a major surprise: in the six games in which Lamar Miller recorded under 12 carries this season, the Miami Dolphins are winless. That's right, 0-6 whenever the team fails to feed their star running back with high volume. Miami also has a pretty decent schedule down the stretch with matchups against the Giants, Chargers, and Colts during the fantasy playoffs. None of those defenses scare you so I'm looking at Miller's most recent outing against the Cowboys as an anomaly more than anything else.
I will say that anyone who owns Lamar Miller needs to handcuff him with Jay Ajayi immediately. With so many backs dropping like flies this year now would be the time to lock up any backup who has a clear path to starting. Realistically speaking, who is more valuable to your team in weeks 13-16? Your fifth wide receiver who's probably never going to so much as sniff your starting lineup (Doug Baldwin, Leonard Hankerson, Dorial Green-Beckham, etc.) or one of your top running back's handcuffs? The answer should be clear, it's the latter.
DeMarco Murray – RB, PHI
It honestly feels like we've talked about the Philadelphia Eagles to an obnoxious degree this season but nevertheless, here we are again. To be perfectly honest the only reason I decided to add DeMarco Murray to the list this week is because he had a poor showing in a game without fellow running back Ryan Mathews around to steal away carries. You would have thought that the Eagles would have leaned a little more heavily on their top offseason acquisition considering their lack of depth against the Buccaneers but Murray only ended up with 13 carries. The Tampa Bay run defense is actually a little underrated so it's not like I was expecting a massive game here or anything, it's just that Philly has turned into an extremely frustrating team to analyze for fantasy purposes.
Murray falls firmly into the category of the type of fantasy player you simply can't bench this late in the season. If that sounds like a familiar statement it's probably because I've said it practically a dozen times this year. Still, that doesn't make it any less true. I'd be worried about depending on Murray for the fantasy playoffs but like I said earlier, you know your team better than I do. There's a pretty good chance you don't have a better option than Murray at this point and besides, if you've been winning in spite of his inconsistencies it doesn't matter all that much anyway.
The Eagles have a quick turnaround as they face the Lions on Thanksgiving this week so it's possible that Mathews doesn't get cleared in time. If he were to miss a second straight game, you should expect DeMarco to have a much better showing in Detroit as long as the volume is there.
Frank Gore – RB, IND
Has there been a more disappointing group of players this year than the Indianapolis Colts? Between Andrew Luck, T.Y. Hilton, Andre Johnson, and Frank Gore, it's possible that this team has managed to become the most disappointing unit in all of my time playing fantasy football. If anything, Frank Gore should actually be improving in the absence of Andrew Luck but instead the Colts have decided to expand Ahmad Bradshaw's role in the offense. It's like this team is dead set on utilizing players who are well past their prime.
Granted, Frank Gore did get a little banged up against the Falcons on Sunday, but Gore should be doing more than 34 yards on 14 carries, especially when the only other person who's eating into his workload is Ahmad Bradshaw. Indy's next two matchups aren't all that great either so I would suggest benching Gore if you have better options. Both the Buccaneers and the Steelers have solid run defense and it's not like 40-year old quarterback Matt Hasselbeck is invoking any amount of fear into secondaries these days.
Updates From Last Week
Chris Ivory – RB, NYJ
I'd like to touch on Chris Ivory one last time this season just because of the fact that Bilal Powell has found himself getting more touches than anyone should be comfortable with. Powell out touched Ivory by a large enough margin against Houston (42-17) on Sunday that it's worth wondering if the Jets are trying to keep Ivory from getting hurt again. That's purely just speculation on my part but whatever the case may be, Ivory keeps plummeting down fantasy rankings. It's looking like he was a major sell high candidate around mid-season so there's likely not much you can do about owning him at this point.
Marshawn Lynch – RB, SEA
Marshawn Lynch has been dealing with an abdominal injury that could cause him to miss several more weeks of action. Remember earlier when I said now is the time to pickup any reliable handcuffs? Enter Thomas Rawls. If Rawls is still wandering around your league's waiver wire be sure to scoop him up as soon as possible. We'll have to wait and see just how long Lynch will be out. Until then, Rawls is a must start in Seattle.
James Starks – RB, GB
Just when we thought the Green Bay Packers had fully embraced a changing of the guard at running back, Eddie Lacy goes out and ruins the whole damn thing. Lacy exploded for the first time in forever during Sunday's divisional game against the Minnesota Vikings, relegating Starks back down to number two status on the depth chart. Head coach Mike McCarthy insists that this offense will continue to use a one-two punch at running back and I do still believe him. Both guys have been productive so it's looking like either player can be a usable RB2/flex play in most formats. It'll just be really difficult to predict who the more productive of the two is going to be. That said, I prefer Lacy over Starks against the Bears this week.
DeAngelo Williams– RB, PIT
The Steelers were on a bye in week 11 so we'll have to revisit DeAngelo's performance in another week or two. With a tough week 12 contest against the Seattle Seahawks looming, it's probably best to look ahead to that home game versus Indianapolis as the bounce back target for Williams.
