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After a miserable week 2, I bounced back going four for four in my picks this past week. All the big favorites won, with a couple small underdogs winning on the road.
This the first week of the NFL season where BYEs start coming into play, with New England and Tennessee getting the week off.
For those of you unfamiliar with survivor pools it’s very simple; pick a team to win each week, if they win you move on to the next week. BUT you cannot use that team ever again. There is NO point spread involved.
Survivor League Strategy
I will be following the same strategy I implore every year when entering a survivor contest.
- Try to save the top teams for the end of the season. You do not want to be alive in Week 10 choosing between the Jaguars and Browns. Picking teams that you would not use later on in the season should be looked at early on. For example, last season the Jets played the Raiders in Week 1. I chose the Jets due to the fact that I knew this would be my best opportunity to use up the Jets and save other top teams like the Patriots and Seahawks later on.
- When in doubt pick the home team. Rarely will I be picking a team on the road in survivor. It is hard to win on the road, and teams tend to play better with their home crowd behind them. The one time I picked a road team last season, the 49ers lost at the Raiders and I was eliminated.
- Try to avoid divisional rivalry games also. Anything can happen with a rivalry game. Last season Washington was a 9.5-point underdog to the Cowboys in Dallas on Monday night football. Washington ended up winning, knocking many people out of their survivor pool.
- Never pick an underdog, unless you have no choice.
Before making any picks, look at each point spread. Vegas has the best minds, smarter than any of us, use them to get a glimpse at how each team is projected to fare that week.
The biggest favorites in Week 4 per sportsbook (home team in caps); SEAHAWKS -10 vs. Lions; Packers -9 vs. 49ERS; COLTS -9 vs. Jaguars; CHARGERS -7.5 vs. Browns; BRONCOS -7 vs. Vikings; CARDINALS -7 vs. Rams
Top Survivor Picks for Week 4
I would really try and save the Seahawks this week as there are tons of solid plays in week 4, such as:
CHARGERS -7.5 vs. Browns
The Chargers are really hard to figure out this season. In week 1 the Chargers scored 30 unanswered points in a come from behind victory against the Lions. Week 2, the Chargers narrowly lost, and this past week were blown out by the Vikings. But the Bengals and Vikings are both good teams who play well at home and the Chargers typically struggle in 10:00 AM starts.
As expected, the Browns have been dysfunctional mess. Johnny Manziel led the Browns to their first win against the Titans last Sunday, yet the Browns decided to start Josh McCown on Sunday resulting in a 27-20 loss to the Raiders. Players in the locker room are upset that Manziel is still riding the bench. A divided locker room is never good. The Browns defense has given up 158.8 rushing yards per game, worst in football, while the pass defense ranks 14th in the league. Melvin Gordon and Danny Woodhead will be used early and often and should have themselves a really nice day. The run game will set up Philip Rivers to make some deep throws to Keenan Allen, who is off to a record breaking start. The Chargers have to get their season back on track this week and will rip the Browns.
CARDINALS -7 vs. Rams
Arizona is one of the best teams in football. The Cardinals have one of the most well rounded teams on both sides of the ball. Carson Palmer is getting MVP consideration due to his superb start to the season. So why can't they get some love from the national media?
Palmer is tied for the league lead with nine touchdown passes and leads an offense that has scored the second most points in NFL history through three games, 126, second to the 2013 Broncos who scored one more point. They have one of the top five home field advantages in football, having won 14 of their past 17 home games. Dating back to October 2013 with Palmer as the starter, the Cardinals are 16-2, including nine straight wins. The running game is assisting Palmer, averaging 125 yards/game. The Rams defense is allowing 123 rushing yards per game, 8th worst in football. The Nick Foles experiment looks awful with only one touchdown the past two weeks. Now they face one of the best defenses? Oof. The Cards are giving up 16 points a game, tied for third best, and fifth in total yardage. Arizona has won their last three games against the Rams. Look for it be four after this week.
Top Survivor Picks to Avoid for Week 4
COLTS -9 vs. Jaguars
The Colts and Saints are beloved by Vegas. I really am not sure as to why since both teams have struggled in 2015. In our case though, the Colts should ABSOLUTELY NOT be a 9 point favorite over a division rival. I understand the Jaguars got killed by New England, but the Patriots are in (BLANK) YOU mode and will try to run up the score on every team. Remove that pillaging from your memory and the Jaguars have looked pretty good. They played well to a surprisingly good Panthers squad and beat the Dolphins. The Jags are a team on the rise and a scary matchup for the overrated Colts. Indy should be 0-3. They got hammered by the Bills and Jets and if not for Marcus Mariota handing the game to Indy on Sunday, general manager Ryan Grigson would be calling for head coach Chuck Pagano's head. There is already a rift between the two. If it hasn't already affected the Colts then it surely will soon. Jacksonville has gotten blown out in their last five games against the Colts, their last win at Indy in 2012 as three point underdogs. The Colts' offensive line has given up 59 quarterback hits this season, second only to Washington (63). Gus Bradley will exploit the offensive line again this weekend using his disguises. The Colts' defense has been porous, yielding 373 yards per game, which should allow the Jaguars to keep it close. Don't be too surprised if you see this game very close in the fourth quarter.
Packers -9 vs. 49ERS
The Packers have the best offense in football and Aaron Rodgers is the best quarterback in football. (Cue to every New England/Tom Brady fan throwing their laptop across the room). But I believe this could be a let down game. The Pack have looked terrific in their first three games. The 49ers, not so much. Removing recency bias, the Packers offense is not as good on the road as it is at Lambeau. Since the beginning of last season, the Packers are 14th in points scored on the road. The 49ers seemed to prove the doubters of the offseason wrong by whipping the Vikings in their home opener, but came back to Earth with blowout defeats to Pittsburgh and Arizona. Interestingly enough, the last time these two teams played was in the NFC Wild Card game in 2014 when the 49ers beat the Pack in Lambeau on a last second field goal. I don't know how much worse the 49ers could possibly play, especially Colin Kaepernick, after these past two weeks. It looks too easy for the Packers to cruise to victory, but this is a road game in a loud stadium. When it looks to easy, bet the other side. Especially the home dog. Save the Packers till much later in the season.
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