Over the course of the offseason, I took part in a 20-team dynasty start-up draft run by Jordan Schultz of DynastyBBall.com.  The league is standard 9 category head-to-head, with 16 man rosters including 8 starters (PG, SG, SF, PF, C, 3xUTIL) and 8 bench spots.  The start-up draft took place over the course of two weeks from April 26 to May 9.  It was 14 rounds long with each team selecting 13 players and one rookie draft slot (comprised of the same pick in each of three rounds of the upcoming non-serpentine rookie/supplemental draft).

All 20 owners were extremely active when it came to making their picks (during their waking hours), commenting on Proboards, and for the most part knowing their basketball.  Today as part RotoBaller's continuing fantasy coverage of the NBA offseason, we'll take a look at the first round of what a real dynasty start-up draft looks like.  While not every pick is what I would've done at a given point, I think looking at real draft will give us an idea of the state of fantasy basketball dynasty value before free agency shakes everything up again.

Note: I selected 15th in the odd rounds and 6th in the even ones.

 

THE FIRST ROUND

1.01 - Karl-Anthony Towns (PF/C, MIN)

Some of the other owners feigned surprise about Towns going first overall, but I thought going Towns was a no-brainer for this owner.  He's not only a 20 year old with potentially a decade plus of production left in him, but he is a top 10 fantasy player already.  Even if he never improves on his rookie fantasy production (a dubious assumption), the pick is still returning safe value -- not quite what you'd get from a Curry or a Harden, but not too far behind.  A safe pick at number one who can help long and short term.

1.02 - Giannis Antetokounmpo (PG/SG/SF/PF, MIL)

The other super-young pick who seems safe here.  Difference is, even at the height of "Point Giannis," Antetokounmpo didn't quite return the top 10 value Towns did.  Giannis still has a problem with shooting that made him a minus in FT% and non-factor in three-point shooting, which combined were enough to make him merely a top 25 player rather than a top 10 guy. I wouldn't put it past him to keep improving in those areas, though. With Giannis's all-around skill-set, he's as good a bet as anyone going forward to challenge as the top fantasy player in the league. He's a safe bet in a dynasty, especially if you plan to build around him to win in future seasons. That said, the opportunity cost was giving up the ability to become an immediate title contender right now by selecting...

1.03 - Stephen Curry (PG/SG, GSW)

Over the last two years, Curry has been in a tier of his own in fantasy production. Anyone worth their salt in fantasy basketball could've made their league's playoffs with Steph in the last two years. At age 28, you can reasonably expect the same in the next couple of seasons, if he stays healthy. There's massive risk in picking Curry in a dynasty league, though. It's clear the injury he suffered in the first round against Houston sapped some of his explosiveness and athleticism through the rest of the playoffs. It caught up with him in the Finals, where he was just awful. Just watch Game 7, where even Love managed to respectably defend him.

It's a stark reminder that a drop in explosiveness can make a big difference in what kind of player someone is. Players who rely much more on their craftiness and decision-making age well, but those who really rely on explosiveness and athleticism to create separation and shot opportunities can fall off a cliff fast. Curry's shooting will keep him in the league for a long time, but if age or injuries were to sap his explosiveness, his window as a super-star could slam shut faster than most might anticipate. There are more than just two players I would've at least considered taking over Curry with this fear in mind.

1.04 - Kawhi Leonard (SG/SF, SAS)

Of the top 5 fantasy players for the 2015-16 season, Kawhi Leonard was the youngest at only 24.  (For reference, I am considering Curry, Durant, Harden, Leonard, and Paul to be the top 5 fantasy performers on the season).  He in an incredible situation on a great team.  He has shown improvement as an offensive player every year.  He hasn't even entered his "peak" seasons. Aside from Towns, I think there's no safer pick in a dynasty league combining guaranteed current top tier production with future longevity and upside.  If Leonard had gone ahead of Curry, I would not have blinked an eye.

1.05 - James Harden (SG/SF, HOU)

I think going into drafts for seasonal leagues, there's going to be at least a little reasonable debate (and not just hot takes) over whether Curry should definitely go number one, or whether Harden or Durant is the better bet. Harden is turning 27 this summer -- the "peak" season in the average NBA career -- and he never seems to get hurt (it's probably hard to get hit too hard when you have such a hair-trigger reaction to flop away at even the slightest contact).

In a head-to-head league like this, Harden has another huge advantage over guys like Curry and Leonard.  Because those guys are on teams that will cruise to high seeds in the playoffs, they are likely to be rested late season during the fantasy playoffs (the Warriors won't be going all-in for 73 wins again, I can guarantee that).  Meanwhile, Harden will be have to be out there every day to carry Houston's borderline contending squad into another low-seed berth in the playoffs. When it matters most, Harden's the most likely guy to still be out there for your team.

1.06 - Andre Drummond (PF/C, DET)

I knew he would go high in this league because of his value in a head-to-head league and his young age , but even I was surprised at how high he went. I understand the pros for grabbing him early -- he's only turning 23 in August and he's a top 10 player if you're punting FT%.  But there are major cons.  The point of drafting to punt a category is that you're paying lower prices for guys who are worth more to you, because the price factors in their terrible category. This doesn't price it in.

There are players left on the board who are way more valuable than Andre Drummond, both overall and in FT% punt builds -- DeAndre Jordan and Hassan Whiteside were both better in FT% punts because they had super elite FG% and blocks totals, while even guys you'd never punt FT% with -- like Durant -- would've provided more value in the 8 other categories than Drummond.  The age isn't worth enough to sink in such a high cost on Drummond.  This is where Drummond should've been drafted if he was a league average FT% shooter, not the league's worst.  Heck, Drummond wasn't anywhere near the best 23-year-old PF/C left on the board.

1.07 - Kevin Durant (SF/PF, UFA)

This owner pretty much raced to make this selection, shocked that arguably the best 9 category player in all of fantasy was still on the board at 7. The concerns over his 2014-15 foot injury obviously still linger. That's why I agree with the super-young Towns and Antetokuonmpo picks as "safer" and I'd entertain Leonard and Harden as slightly younger elites where you're trading off some production for fewer long-term injury concerns. But the other two players who went ahead of him? Durant is six months younger than Curry, and his game is less vulnerable to dropping off a cliff if he loses a step (because Durant won't lose his height advantage). His production isn't prone to the same spikes and valleys. He's less likely to sit games during the fantasy playoffs. I think for all the risks you could read into Durant, there are as many, if not more, risks with Curry. As for Drummond going before? That's a move I'd never make. Drummond will create less value in the next 10 years than Durant will in the next 5.

1.08 - Russell Westbrook (PG, OKC)

Maybe it's my Oklahoma City hate talking (something I don't hold against Durant, because I remember him in a Sonic uniform), or a stylistic thing, but I might've been the last guy to fall in love with Westbrook as a fantasy asset. I definitely couldn't see why he was being drafted ahead of Chris Paul in many of my seasonal leagues. Well, I was right and I was wrong. I was right in the sense that CP3 was still better last year, but wrong in thinking Westbrook was being significantly over-valued in the process. He shored up his major weak point -- his FG% -- improving his game around the basket, and elevated his passing game even further with his first double-digit assist season (his previous career high was 8.6 AST/G). Even I'm fine with taking him ahead of Paul in seasonal leagues this year, and he's a safe pick for the next few seasons in Dynasty.

1.09 - DeMarcus Cousins (PF/C, SAC)

1.10 - Anthony Davis (PF/C, NOP)

I wanted to talk about these picks in connection with each other.  It's a travesty that Anthony Davis slid this far (and annoying to me, picking down at 15, that I couldn't reap the benefits).  Davis is 23 and on a per game basis has ranked 2, 1, and 5 in fantasy value over the last three seasons.  I get it, I said "on a per game basis," and therein lies the rub.  Davis has consistently battled various injuries over his career that are enough to give you pause about trusting him for a full season, much less his ability to play another 10 years in the league.

That's reason enough to maybe go for a "safe" pick without recurring injuries like Harden or Westbrook.  I'd personally still play the upside -- I'd have considered him at first overall even, hoping even if he doesn't play every game, he's there enough seasons in the fantasy playoffs to win me a title or two -- but I get it.

But DeMarcus Cousins over him?  If you're going to complain about Davis missing 50 out of 246 games in the last 3 seasons while being arguably the best player in fantasy in the other 196, why draft DeMarcus Cousins, who has missed 51 out of 246 games in the same span, while being significantly worse in the other 195?  This I don't get.  Everyone out there -- don't overreact to Davis getting over-drafted at #1 last year.  He's still a monster, and the injuries are a concern, but not guaranteed to last forever.  Remember the last young phenom who was awesome per game but seemed to have perpetual injury issues?  Yea, he just had back-to-back MVP seasons and went 3rd overall at age 28 in this dynasty draft.

1.11 - Paul George (SG/SF/PF, IND)

PG13's value has likely only gone up since this pick was made, with the additions of Jeff Teague and Thaddeus Young to balance the Pacers offense. There's not much controversial about this pick -- anyone still on the board who was clearly better than George as a fantasy player last season is either on the wrong side of 30 (LeBron, Chris Paul, Kyle Lowry) or hasn't quite proven himself as a top commodity over a large enough sample (Whiteside).

1.12 - Damian Lillard (PG, POR)

Everyone loves Lillard, but he does have his flaws as a fantasy player in the form of a low FG% and a lack of assists from a premium point guard (his 0.9 steals per game look pretty sad when Curry, Westbrook, Paul, Lowry, and Wall all averaged about 2 per game).  That's why he didn't go higher than this.  But I'm otherwise bullish about him -- you can build a FG% punt around him and he'll be there in the fantasy playoffs as a guy unlikely to see much rest down the stretch for a borderline playoff team like Portland.  Similar to Harden, he's easier to win with in a H2H league than his raw fantasy value might suggest.

1.13 - Kristaps Porzingis (PF/C, NYK)

Here we have a first pure long-term play.  While Towns and Giannis were the super-dynasty youth you can build an instant contender around, selecting Porzingis here sacrifices too much immediate fantasy value to be an contender in 2016-17.  But down the line, this pick will look really good.  Oddly enough, this owner made some picks down the line in hopes of being somewhat competitive -- taking guys like Brook Lopez, Luol Deng, Tony Parker, and J.R. Smith after they slid.  None of those picks were reaches at the point they were made, but I'm not sure it will pay off in a playoff spot.  I wonder if he has a long-con in mind of making them as "value picks" in the draft, then trying to package them for youth later to a panicking contender in need?  It's an interesting strategy.

1.14 - John Wall (PG, WAS)

Wall has nearly identical value to Lillard, it just comes down to how you prefer your guards.  Both are 25.  What Lillard brings in 3PM and elite FT% impact, Wall offsets with more assists and steals.  I actually might side with Wall, because more of his negatives are absorbed in turnovers, which are the least meaningful category in H2H, because they are the hardest to control.  Either way, it's no surprise they came off the board within two picks of each other.

1.15 - Draymond Green (SF/PF, GSW)

This was my pick.  Selecting Draymond was relatively easy for me here.  I am a bit too impatient and overly cautious to go straight for the rookie pick (Ben Simmons), and I wasn't going to grab an older guy.  I did consider LeBron, figuring he'd keep playing a long time, but regression is likely to continue and he's likely to rest more and more, which is dangerous in head-to-head leagues.  Draymond is a guy who just turned 26, who has produced top 20 per game numbers over the last two seasons, who has played in at least 79 games in every season of his career, and who produces a bunch of fun out-of-position numbers that are easy to construct a team around.  I just hope he doesn't kick too many people in the groin in the fantasy playoffs this year.

1.16 - Hassan Whiteside (C, UFA)

I did consider one other guy other than Draymond, LeBron, and the rookie slot at my pick -- Hassan Whiteside.  Whiteside was a guy I called out as a potential waiver wire pickup on this site two years ago when he was only 1% owned on Yahoo!, so he has a soft-spot in my heart.  And last year he was incredible.  3.7 blocks per game.  A monstrous, high-impact .605 FG%.  He even started hitting a respectable amount of his FTs -- 73% over the last three months of the season.  If you go by last year, he was better than Green -- he was a top 10 player for sure last season, and a top 5 player in the second half.  In the end, there was too much uncertainty in Whiteside.

I'm not talking about "character concerns" here, either -- I don't put too much stock in that.  It's that he is an unrestricted free agent, and his situation is likely to look much different next year than it did this season even if he stays in Miami.  Last season's Heat was a perfect situation for Whiteside to rack up stats as the only big man on the floor surrounding by high-flying guards and wings.  It allowed him to stay close to the basket on both ends without worrying about spacing issues, and hoover up boards while racking up blocks and easy field goals.  The high pace the Heat ran these small lineups inflated his opportunities.  The lack of other bigs kept Whiteside on the floor as much as possible.  I can hardly think of a better situation for Whiteside's fantasy stats than last year's Heat.  Next year, the situation couldn't possibly be better, and there's a significant downside its worse.

1.17 - Blake Griffin (PF/C, LAC)

With all apologies to Jordan Schultz, who made this pick, I wouldn't have touched Griffin with a ten-foot pole in a dynasty league, especially with a pick this high.  It's not like Griffin's super-young any more -- he's 27.  He's surrounded by injury red flags.  And he's never been a top 20 fantasy player at any point, because for all the points and rebounds with the nice passing, he's still not a great FT shooter and he's basically a zero when it comes to treys, steals, and blocks.  Given concerns about his health, are we certain he'll last in the league longer than some of the 30 year-olds (especially LeBron)?  No.  Will he ever be one of the top 20 fantasy players in a season?  Unless he gets traded to a team where he essentially runs point and approaches double-digit assists, probably not.  Does he come with significant risk to fall off a cliff?  Yes.  Would the dynasty league owner who just drafted Ben Simmons take Blake for Simmons straight up?  No way.

1.18 - LeBron James (SF/PF, CLE)

We got a glimpse of what LeBron still is during the NBA Finals, which took place after this start-up draft.  I'm sure if we'd drafted after the Finals, emotions would've ruled and James would've gone much higher.  On the one hand, the James we saw in the playoffs will likely never return in a regular season game.  Playoff LeBron is and will remain exactly that, for as long as James can muster it.  The regular season will just be survived.  But even today's regular season LeBron is still a very good fantasy option, on the level of guys like Draymond and Paul George.  And as I hinted at earlier, it's not like we can assume LeBron will retire at the same age as a normal player.  There's every reason to believe he can play at a high level deep into his thirties, and provide as much duration of production in a dynasty league as many of the late-twenties players being drafted in the same area.

1.19 - Rookie Draft Slot 1 (1.01, 2.01, 3.01) / Ben Simmons

This owner made it clear he believed in Ben Simmons.  If you agree he's a franchise level talent -- and everything about him seems to indicate that -- he's every bit as worthy of a first round pick as Porzingis.  And if you think he's a generational talent, he's a steal at 19.  I'm a bit worried about having passed up on him.

1.20 - Jimmy Butler (SG/SF, CHI)

The first round of our dynasty league startup wrapped up with Butler.  Butler was part of a trio of guys remaining on the board who had top 20 fantasy stats on a per game basis and were still under 30.  Spoiler alert: the other two -- Kemba Walker and Klay Thompson -- were the first two picks in the second round.  Butler provides the most balanced value of those three, without a category where he rates as a negative for his position.