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When the Atlanta Falcons selected Tevin Coleman out of Indiana in the third round, the assumption was that he would automatically become the starting running back. Considering how bleak Atlanta's ground game has been over the last few years, that's a fair assumption to make. That being said, completely writing off Devonta Freeman after just one year in the league is a bit of a stretch.
Despite holding fantasy sleeper status last year, Freeman was buried within a crowded depth chart, competing with the likes of Steven Jackson and Jacquizz Rodgers for carries. Freeman finished the season with the second most carries between them with just 65, only seven more than Rodgers. Factor in his 248 yard total and a 3.8 yards-per-rush and the numbers are unimpressive. The thing is, Freeman is being treated as the incumbent back, even if it's out of veteran respect. He's been running with the first-team offense in OTAs, a clear indication that the Falcons aren't simply going to toss him aside in favor of their shiny new toy. Freeman is also considered to be the better pass-catching back, adding to his current advantage over Coleman. With the clutter of Jackson and Rodgers no longer on the roster, Freeman's path to starting would have been unobstructed if it weren't for Coleman. There's still a logical scenario in which Freeman hangs on to the starting gig throughout camp even with the addition of a new rookie RB.
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Coleman possesses one advantage that Freeman can't attest to and that's being the freshly drafted rookie by the new regime. The Falcons changed their whole coaching staff this offseason, cutting ties with Head Coach Mike Smith and Offensive Coordinator Dirk Koetter. Atlanta then hired former Seahawks DC Dan Quinn along with former Browns OC Kyle Shanahan. Shanahan's zone running scheme should prove to be favorable for whoever emerges as the starter but the more important aspect of these changes is the fact that this is the regime that drafted Coleman. It may seem obvious, but they clearly weren't satisfied with the running backs that were already on the roster. That puts Freeman on a short leash to prove he deserves to be the starter. That's not to say that Coleman can't beat him outright but in essence there is more than one way Coleman can become the starter. He can either:
- Beat him out on his own via the playing ability he is currently being hyped up to possess.
- Become a beneficiary of circumstance and take over for an ineffective Devonta Freeman.
We've seen plenty of franchises cut ties with the previous regime's talent in favor of employing their own hand selected players. Dan Quinn and Kyle Shanahan don't owe Freeman anything as they weren't the ones who drafted him last year.
A crutch argument for rookie running backs is that we've "already seen what (insert veteran player) can do, the rookie is obviously better." Unfortunately, that doesn't apply here. Just last year the Bishop Sankey hype was through the roof with everyone stomping their feet about how old and washed up Shonn Greene was and how the remaining competition was ineffective. Yet still, Sankey couldn't break out and it almost didn't matter anyway as the team continued to give Greene significant playing time. If the team isn't giving the player in question (Sankey/Coleman) enough touches, then it doesn't matter what we've seen already. Don't assume Coleman is already "the guy." He has to actually beat out Freeman, even if Freeman didn't impress in his rookie season.
Coleman is often ranked as a sixth rounder as a low-end RB2/high-end flex but he does possess RB1 upside in a 12-team league. It's a fair ranking but rookies tend to have their average draft position increase significantly the closer we get to September. He's worth the gamble for sure, just don't overpay for him barring any significant news. As for Freeman, he's been pretty much overlooked entirely, often ranked in the 40s. He's worth a flyer if you're able to get him that low.
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