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Players beware: It’s Thursday, September 10th. It’s the first official night of the NFL season. At this point in time, all of the “amateurs” that you’ve been looking to take advantage of in head-to-head, 50/50, and tournament games are no longer. They have moved onto bigger things (NFL DFS). So, I’m not saying don’t play MLB DFS anymore. I am saying you should give NFL DFS a try this weekend. However, know that if you want to continue being profitable in MLB, you’re going to have to beat a much more competitive pool of players.
With that being said, Thursday is our typical “small slate” with eight games total. Because only two of those games are starting before 7:05 eastern, we will focus on only the main six tonight. As always with small slates, going by the chalk picks will likely put you on the outside looking in come payout time. These are the kind of nights to take some risks and go against what the stats might say. Let’s get to it.
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Offenses to Target for FanDuel DFS (Pitchers to Pick On)
For such a small slate, there’s actually a surprisingly good amount of pitching options for Thursday night. So, that leaves us with virtually three options as far as pitchers to target.
Wily Peralta is facing off with the Pittsburgh Pirates in PNC Park. While that is a pitcher’s ballpark, especially against right-handed batters, I wouldn’t even trust the right-handed Peralta in mammoth Marlins’ Park. He’s known for giving up the long ball, and he currently has the highest FB% and Hard% of his career. I’m no mathematician, but that’s not good. The Pirates are in the midst of a do-or-die pennant chase, and they’ll need all the wins they can get if they want to catch the pesky Red Birds by the end of this month. This one could be a blowout.
The Cubs are the other team involved in that NL Central pennant chase. On Thursday, they travel to Philadelphia to send their ace out against lefty Adam Morgan. If you’ve been keeping up with the MLB this year, you know that every pitcher on the Phillies not named Aaron Nola is bad. Morgan is no exception. Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, Kyle Schwarber, and Kris Bryant lead the team in wRC+ vs. L. They all make fine picks on Thursday.
The Indians of Cleveland get a nice, juicy matchup against Alfredo Simon on Thursday. Some might be scared off by this matchup, as Simon has been known to show flashes of brilliance now and again. However, he seems like no match for the finally healthy lineup that the Indians are rolling out there these days. The top four of the order in Jason Kipnis, Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, and Carlos Santana is primed for a big day Thursday. Abraham Almonte has been hitting everything lately, too. I wouldn’t hate him in a few of my lineups either.
You’ll notice I left out the Cardinals against lefty John Lamb. It’s not that I don’t think they’ll have a fine day at the plate, it’s really that the Cardinals’ offense doesn’t exactly excite me anymore. Sure, they’re winning games. But it’s almost impossible to guess if they’re minimal run production is going to come off of two Brandon Moss solo shots, a Jason Heyward double after Matt Carpenter walked, or a Stephen Piscotty double in the gap. For that reason, I’m avoiding this offense unless they REALLY get a beauty of a matchup. That could also be an excuse for a secret boycott that I’m running as a Pirates fan. I guess you’ll never know!
DFS Starting Pitchers to Target for FanDuel
Jake Arrieta (SP, CHC) - $12,200/David Price (SP, TOR) - $11,900
Most people are going to go one of two ways as far as pitchers on Thursday go: Jake Arrieta or David Price. Because they’re prices are only $300 apart, we can basically consider them equal in price. Arrieta certainly has the better matchup, but that might be the exact reason to go with Price. The Yankees are a lefty-heavy lineup, and Price could certainly find a boat load of strikeouts at the end of the day. Meanwhile, the Phillies haven’t been as quiet in the second half of the season as they have in the first.
OK. It’s still the Phillies, and Arrieta has been absolutely filthy in his past few outings. He’s only let up 12 hits and three walks in his last 29 innings pitched. Meanwhile, he has 34 strikeouts in that span. Like I said, filthy. So he’s the obvious pick. But I guess what I’m saying is that today is one of those days where you are going to have to be a little bit crazy if you want to win big. Fading Arrieta for Price could be that move.
Different pitchers? Getting Risky
Your other pitching options that aren’t entirely insane include Danny Salazar ($9,400), Jaime Garcia ($9,100), and A.J. Burnett ($8,700). While all three of these pitchers have the ability to put up very strong outings with a lot of Ks and a win, the risk and price tags are too high for me to consider passing up on the options above.
Salazar was just blasted by this same Tigers team a week ago. While he’ll likely be looking for revenge and has shown how good he is in games like his big win against Toronto, I’m a firm believer that offenses have the ability to figure out pitchers. If Detroit did it once, they can do it again.
Garcia is coming off his best game of the season, going seven strong innings with nine strikeouts. However, he has struggled to get over six strikeouts aside from that outing, and he has sprinkled games with too many hits or too many walks among his recent starts. He’s not trustworthy enough against the Reds for me to save $2,000 dollars and miss out on a top option.
Lastly, we have Burnett. While his upside is always huge, especially against high-strikeout teams in pitcher-friendly parks. I don’t like banking on guys fresh off the DL. Maybe next week we can go back to riding Burnett’s arm if he looks good on Thursday.
DFS Infielders to Target for FanDuel
Travis D’Arnaud (C, NYM) - $3,800
Saying the catcher position is bleak on Thursday is an understatement. It seems like all of the low-priced options are stuck in the middle of slumps, so maybe today is the day to pay up for D’Arnaud. As long as he’s been healthy, the Mets’ catcher is mashing the ball. He homered on Wednesday, and has another opportunity for more of the same against Shelby Miller on Thursday.
Pedro Alvarez (1B, PIT) - $2,200
After sitting the past two nights in favor of Aramis Ramirez, Alvarez’ price has dropped to minimum value. If he gets the start on Thursday, this could create a great opportunity. Peralta is a fly ball pitcher, and Alvarez can put one in the seats at any moment, despite his brutal inconsistency. This is a GPP pick if I’ve ever seen one. Again, check to make sure he makes it into the lineup.
Jason Kipnis (2B, CLE) - $3,000
Kipnis has a crazy good .398 wOBA vs. L this season. It was great to see him rip off two hits yesterday, and if he is able to do more of the same, his teammates behind him are very good at driving him in. At such a low price, Kipnis is an obvious play on Thursday.
Matt Carpenter (3B, STL) - $3,200
I know, I know. I said I would avoid Cardinals. Carpenter is such a good hitter though. You’ll find that when he’s on, the handedness of the pitcher simply doesn’t matter (he tripled and singled off of Jon Lester and Clayton Richard yesterday). Many people will avoid him because of his same-hand matchup, but if you can stomach the idea of fading Kris Bryant, this could be a relatively cheap investment that pays off in a big way.
Eugenio Suarez (SS, CIN) - $3,200
Speaking of hot hitters, Suarez has been a run-creating machine in the second half of the season. He can rack up three singles or take one yard, and he’s better against lefties (like Garcia) than righties with a .355 wOBA vs. R this season. He’s a nice, cheap option to compliment a high-priced pitcher.
DFS Outfielders to Target for FanDuel
Nick Markakis (OF, ATL) - $2,800
You’ll notice, if you follow my advice, that the pitcher plus infielders haven’t left much room for expensive outfielders. Because of that, we’ll need some bargains to round out the lineup. The Braves’ outfielder has eight hits and three doubles in his past five games. If only someone could get on base in front of him. Bartolo Colon is throwing to Markakis on Thursday, so more of the same is expected for a very low cost.
Billy Hamilton (OF, CIN) - $2,400
Although he went hitless in his return yesterday, it was great to see Hamilton back in the leadoff spot (from a fantasy aspect anyway). If the Reds choose to leave him there, which they really should if they plan to keep him around for the future, Hamilton becomes a steal at this price. All it takes is one walk or slow grounder for him to steal two bases, score a run, and crush his value at this price.
Michael Bourn (OF, ATL) - $2,300
Another Braves outfielder? You gotta be kidding. Well, Bourn had four hits yesterday, so maybe that’s a sign that he’s finally getting comfortable in his new home. He too gets to face the righty Colon, and like Hamilton, Bourn has base-stealing potential. You could do worse at this price.
Good luck with your FanDuel and DFS lineups RotoBallers!
