After an electric week at Torrey Pines, the stars of the PGA Tour will take a breather as we get a less-than-elite field of players eager to notch a victory at Vidanta Vallarta for the 2025 Mexico Open. The cause is the Signature event status, the effect is we get what amounts to an "opposite field" event on a course where players will be regularly hunting red figures on the scorecard.
I have carefully evaluated the field to project proper course fits and looked into how players' incoming form has been in the categories that matter the most, specifically at Vidanta Vallarta. Let's dig into my top-10 power rankings for the 2025 Mexico Open:
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No. 10 - Aaron Rai
- T24, MC, and a T19 result last year in his three appearances at the Mexico Open held here at Vidanta Vallarta
- Ranks 6th in SG: Approach over the last 50 rounds, yet his success has wained a bit in recent weeks.
- Consistently hits the green in regulation on easy courses, ranking #1 in the field. The more opportunities, the better.
No. 9 - Jake Knapp
- We hit Knapp as a winner here last year at 40/1. He hits it far and loose, which is ideal for this golf course.
- Knapp ranks 6th in the field in Approach proximity from 200+ yards over his last 26 rounds played.
- Another solid showing at the Genesis Invitational gives Knapp four consecutive made cuts on the PGA Tour.
Two years ago, Jake Knapp was a bouncer at a nightclub, trying to save money and keep his golf dreams alive.
Today, he became a PGA Tour Champion at the Mexican Open—securing $1.5 million.
— Front Office Sports (@FOS) February 25, 2024
No. 8 - Taylor Moore
- Moore is crushing that ball OTT this season, ranking 2nd in the field in Carry Distance on average.
- Trending form with two top-9 finishes in his last four starts, first at the Amex and then most recently at the WM Phoenix Open.
- He's been gaining a ton of strokes OTT and around the greens. The key for Moore is hitting greens in regulation, which is substantially easier at Vidanta Vallarta than most PGA Tour courses.
No. 7 - Rasmus Hojgaard
- Phenomenal run through the last summer and Fall on the DP World Tour, vaulting Hojgaard way up the OWGR Rankings.
- Plenty long OTT, 7th in Ball Speed and 13th in average carry distance.
- Fully expect Hojgaard to compete in these secondary events all season, and he's going to be one of the favorites to knock one off soon.
No. 6 - Alex Smalley
- Smalley ranks 3rd overall in my stat model this week. Solid incoming form and has a T6 finish here in 2022.
- He has been dominant on the Par 5's, ranking 4th in the field and will be key to unlocking the super low round that is required to win here.
- Great on resort-style courses and Smalley ranks #2 in the field in SG: Total on paspalum greens
No. 5 - Stephan Jaeger
- Jeager has an incredible course history at Vidanta Vallarta. T15, T18, and T3 in his three starts.
- Top-5 putter in the field on these slow paspalum greens.
- Continues to improve his distance OTT. He now ranks in the top-10 in the field in carry distance. The speed training is paying off and is huge on weeks like this with extraordinarily wide fairways where you can send it.
No. 4 - Patrick Rodgers
- Solo leader entering the final round of the Genesis Invitational.
- Ranks 3rd in the field in strokes gained total on resort courses with paspalum greens.
- Three consecutive top-10 finishes on this course, at this event. Watch out for Rodgers.
Patrick Rodgers will look for his first win tomorrow in his 287th career start on TOUR. https://t.co/ffWfLpDPm0 pic.twitter.com/IWcA9laBk2
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) February 16, 2025
No. 3 - Kurt Kitayama
If you have run a stat model this week, Kurt Kitayama is likely near the very top. He only competed in this event once before, finishing in a tie for 2nd place back in 2022. He gained +12.7 strokes on the field that week, gaining strokes in every major category throughout the bag.
Kitayama is plenty long, but often struggles on shorter golf courses where he is forced to either club down off the tee, or hit a bunch of wedges into the greens. He excels when he is able to lean in his ability with his long irons, ranking as my #1 player in the field in approach play from 175-250 yards.
He continues to be dominant at scoring on the par 5s. He'll need to leverage his distance and long iron play if he wants to make another run at the Mexico Open in 2025.
No. 2 - Akshay Bhatia
In his first real big moment as a professional, Akshay Bhatia stood toe-to-toe with Tony Finau and Jon Rahm at the 2023 Mexico Open. He finished 4th but held his own and stayed aggressive throughout the day. Two years later, now Bhatia is the hunted, and one of the favorites to win this week.
He's been putting together three good rounds in his recent events, but letting one bad day end up ruining his final result. He'll need to be consistent all four days to win this, likely needing rounds in the mid 60s every day.
He may look like he barely weighs 150 pounds with a backpack on, but Bhatia can really move it with the Driver. He ranks 6th in carry distance in the field. The slow greens and resort-style flat surfaces will help him have success with the Putter, and Bhatia possesses a clutch ability to come through when it matters the most.
No. 1 - Maverick McNealy
As I watch the final round of the Genesis Invitational, Maverick McNealy is currently lighting Torrey Pines on fire and making it look effortlessly easy. As someone who didn't back him this week, it's a bit sickening to watch but you have to respect this type of performance. He's currently 9 under par through 13 holes at Torrey South!!!
There isn't much that will prevent him from another big performance in Mexico. He finished T13 at this event last year, and comes into this week with the confidence built on his recent run against the goliaths in the signature events.
McNealy has shown the ability to go nuclear, and make birdies in bunches. Even without the data from Torrey Pines, he's still a top-5 player in the field in BOB rates. When he has the driver dialed in, look out for Maverick making a run through the early Spring here. He's my favorite to win and the number 1 player in my Power Rankings...if he chooses to stay in the field! He also flies himself to events. Yes, we all want to be Mav!
Maverick McNealy flew himself to Torrey Pines this week. ✈️
[Insert Top Gun puns] pic.twitter.com/ymuIK3ZlnO
— Golf Digest (@GolfDigest) February 13, 2025
Enjoy the Mexico Open, and thanks for reading! Good luck, RotoBaller family!
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