I had a rough week last week, especially with flipping to TCU and leaving the Red River Shootout so high. chrismiller19 continues his consistent domination of the group, leading the way again this week with 45 points. Bullgator and ESPNFAN9409337165 both had 44 points. Only two more entries topped 40 points, so it was a rough week all around.
chrismiller19 extended his lead to 18 points over PAPIPEREZ and ESPNFAN9409337165. BamaBoy is only one point out of the top three with 261 points. Pick-and-Morty slips to fifth place with 259 points. Bullgator moved into sixth with 251 points.
That's where the congestion begins. 13 entries have between 240 and 250 points. Only three more are in the 230s. We are seeing some separation at the top, but with prizes going to the top three winners, 16 entries are within 20 points of the top three.
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College Football Pick'em Overview
This article will be about the confidence game mode. You can also read my against-the-spread picks on RotoBaller every week for every game, so you know how I'm leaning toward that version of the game. Each week, I will recap who's dominating the group before I get into the picks. If you're going to beat everyone, all of the readers will know about it!
Let's get to the countdown! I will count them up from least confident (1) to most (10). You know, for dramatic effect. If I do change my pick or points sometime during the week, I will try to update the article or post it on X. Otherwise, you know all of my picks each week.
Good luck out there, RotoBallers!
(1) Mississippi over Georgia
To be clear, I don't necessarily think Ole Miss will win this game. It's possible, but this is part of my point-stealing scheme. 71% of the public favors Georgia, with FPI mostly agreeing (69.7%). That said, I would think that most will not have this very high on their risk scale.
The bouncing of the points in Vegas (opened at -6.5, shot up to 9, and settled at -7.5) is a bit concerning. There's a lot of money coming in on the Bulldogs, and I suspect it's because of Mississippi's lackluster showing against Washington State.
Ole Miss hasn't beaten Georgia in Athens since 1996, but that only spans six games. The Mississippi defense handled Georgia last year and should have the game plan to do it again.
(2) Baylor over TCU
Is "The Revivalry" the most underrated rivalry game in college football🧐🐻🐸? Four of the last six matchups have been instant classics.
🏈2019: No. 12 Baylor 29, TCU 23 (3 OT)
🏈2021: TCU, 30, No. 5 Baylor 28
🏈2022: No. 4 TCU 29, Baylor 28
🏈2024: Baylor 37, TCU 34 pic.twitter.com/r188jzwBDg— Baylor Bears on SicEm365 (@SicEm365) October 15, 2025
No true fan will ever call this the "Bluebonnet Bowl." It's the Revivalry. Always has been, always will be. In a week that also has the Holy War, a game like this may be forgotten. It shouldn't be.
Baylor QB Sawyer Robertson leads FBS in passing yards. TCU's Josh Hoover is second. There's going to be a lot of offense in this game, and it should make for another instant classic. FPI is heavy on TCU (63.5%), but the spread in Vegas is only 3.5 points. In a game that is expected to be close, I don't mind taking a team that is only 25% picked to try and gain some ground.
(3) Utah over BYU
Who wins the Holy War this year... ⚔️
Utah or BYU? pic.twitter.com/IMReHteZ1Z
— CFB Tracker (@MatchupTracker) October 15, 2025
I would still like to see this game take place during Rivalry Week, but we will take what we can get. This is now a conference game, and this year, both teams are ranked. The winner will likely face Texas Tech in Dallas in about seven weeks.
The fans are already crazy about this game. Regionality often takes a rivalry from a simmer to a boil. There are plenty of incidents over the years in this game to prove it's one of college football's best rivalries.
From BYU putting Marc Wilson back into a 38-8 blowout late in the game so he could break the NCAA passing record to a Utah cheerleader getting attacked by a BYU fan after a touchdown, which caused Utah WR Steve Smith to respond to BYU fans yelling at him, "even our cheerleaders are kicking your butt," this rivalry has had it all. What will it be this year?
This rivalry is so heated that it even has a taunting clock.
It has been 2,239 days since @Utah_Football last beat @BYUFootball.
— Holy War Clock (@HolyWarClock) October 15, 2025
FPI gives BYU just a 50.9% chance at a home victory, and the Utes are actually favored (-3.5) in Vegas. I'll take this opportunity to get some more points with 62% of Pick Em players taking BYU.
(4) Vanderbilt over LSU
Vanderbilt is a 2.5 point favorite against #LSU this weekend
This is the first time #Vanderbilt has been favored over LSU since 1948.
The Commodores had been the underdog in 51 consecutive SEC games prior to this one pic.twitter.com/kcl1OW2PbQ
— Hunter McCann (@mccann_hunter) October 13, 2025
Can we believe in Vanderbilt? Maybe against this LSU team. The LSU defense has been very good. The offense has been exactly the opposite. FPI gives Vanderbilt a 60.6% chance at the "upset." I am nervous about this one, so I may move it down. This feels like the type of game where LSU shows up.
The last time Vanderbilt was favored over LSU was in 1948. The Commodores blew up the Tigers 48-7. I doubt we see a repeat of that, but who knows?
(5) Arizona over Houston
This is another toss-up as far as FPI is concerned. Houston is just a 50.6% favorite. As opposed to the Holy War, Vegas is on the side of FPI, but just barely (-1.5). This is another area where the Pick Em users are very heavy on one side (84% on Houston), despite the metrics and Vegas predicting a toss-up. This is where we get extra points.
(6) Duke over Georgia Tech
ESPN gives Georgia Tech a 38.3% chance to beat Duke on Saturday 🤔
We love being the underdogs. pic.twitter.com/1cpNxrdJsZ
— Georgia Tech Coverage (@GT_Coverage) October 15, 2025
Maybe they shouldn't. Vegas also favors Duke (-1.5). That's closer than FPI thinks. Duke's Darian Mensah is fifth in the nation in passing yards and just isn't making mistakes. Tech is undefeated but should have lost to Wake on the road and struggled against Colorado in Boulder.
Duke is a good enough team to win this, especially at home. With 81% of Pick Em users siding with Georgia Tech, this is the place to pick up some more points. Pick Em users are heavily on teams that Vegas views as underdogs this week, which usually means maximum carnage.
(7) James Madison over Old Dominion
The James Madison and Old Dominion are playing for this new official trophy tonight in the Royal Rivalry (Dukes vs Monarchs): pic.twitter.com/doLjekZdfb
— RedditCFB (@RedditCFB) October 29, 2023
This trophy has never left Harrisonburg, Virginia. I see no reason why it will here. Old Dominion has yet to win an FBS meeting of the schools. Their last win in the series was in 2012.
Strangely enough, FPI still has the Monarchs as a 53.6% favorite. Vegas has the Dukes favored by 1.5 points. This feels a little too close to have it this high, but what else am I going to move down? This is feeling like a tough week.
(8) Iowa over Penn State
This game does make me a little nervous since every team that fired its coach has played much better since the firing, except for Oklahoma State. That said, Iowa lost on a last-second field goal again in ¡El Assico! and only lost by five to Indiana. This feels like an undervalued Hawkeye team by many, me included. I don't see how Penn State hangs around without Drew Allar.
(9) Missouri over Auburn
Auburn's run defense is going to be a problem for Missouri, but the Auburn offense is so awful that it would take a complete meltdown on Missouri's part to blow this. FPI (53.5% Missouri) and Vegas (-1.5 Missouri) disagree. This line actually opened with Auburn favored.
(10) Oklahoma over South Carolina
🏈 “Texas Hangover” — OU After the Red River Game
The Sooners have often been tested the week after Texas. History shows both the danger and the dominance:
All-Time Record (post-Texas): 90–22–8 (78.3% win rate)
Bud Wilkinson: 14–1–2 — machine-like focus after the Horns
Chuck… pic.twitter.com/FXLMeD2BWd— Mike Brooks (@MBrooks02) October 15, 2025
Bob Stoops is famous for saying, "Never let a team beat you twice." His Oklahoma teams always came back with a vengeance after a loss. Can the Brent Venables teams do it as well? I sure hope so.
As an Oklahoma fan, I need this. FPI (55%) and Vegas (-5.5) have Oklahoma as enough of a favorite for me to feel pretty good about this.
