Be sure to follow me on Twitter /X @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week. Also, if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'
PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The Rocket Mortgage
We have some exciting changes that we are implementing this year over at RotoBaller. There will be multiple subscription-based tiers for our readers to enjoy, including my very own TeeOffSports VIP Package that will include the following items:
Featured Promo! Save 30% on any Premium Pass using discount code NEW. Win more with our DFS, Betting and Season-Long Pass, get expert tools and advice from proven winners! GAIN ACCESSPGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)
- A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market.
- The Rocket Mortgage
Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)
- Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
- All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (265-194-25) 57.73%
- Total H2Hs Since 2017: (518-361-71) 58.93%
- Outright Winners Since 2017: 42
- Units: +327.863 Units
- All Totals Are Entering 2024
- Click here to see an example
In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)
- Here, you will find updated stats for the particular tournament -- all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time Round 4 comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.
In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4
- Lifetime Record: (253-167-46) 60.24%
- Click here to see an example
First-Round Leader Article
- Eight first-round leader wins in 2022.
- Click here to see an example
One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)
- 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
- Click here to see an example
Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)
- We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.
- Join the community! You will be able to talk to fellow subscribers and have real-time weekly chats with the team.
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Field
Field Size: 156
Cut: Top-65 & Ties
Top 20 Entrants: 1
Last Five Winners of the Rocket Mortgage
| 2023 | Rickie Fowler | -24 |
| 2022 | Tony Finau | -26 |
| 2021 | Cam Davis | -18 |
| 2020 | Bryson DeChambeau | -23 |
| 2019 | Nate Lashley | -25 |
Expected Cut-Line At The Rocket Mortgage
| 2023 | -3 |
| 2022 | -2 |
| 2021 | -2 |
| 2020 | -4 |
| 2019 | -4 |
Detroit Golf Club
7,370 Yards - Par 702 - Greens Bent/Poa
We will go over the course on my podcasts this week!
Let's Look at the Stats
| Stat | Detroit Golf | PGA Average |
| Driving Distance | 296 | 283 |
| Driving Accuracy | 65% | 61% |
| GIR Percentage | 72% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 62% | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.52 | 0.55 |
Key Stats
Let's quickly run through how I built my model.
Weighted Strokes Gained: Total (30%)
Distance + All Proximity + Putting (Geared Toward Detroit Golf (10%)
Total Driving + Short Prox + Comp Putting (10%)
Strokes Gained: Total Easy Scoring (10%)
Strokes Gained Total: Donald Ross (10%)
Weighted Scoring (20%)
Expected Ball-Striking (10%)
Total Number of Top-10's Out of the Seven Categories: Two-Year Running Model
I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on X.
First Look Into Outright Bets
| Player | Odds | Risk | Win | Book |
| Min Woo Lee | 22 | 0.32 | 7.04 | BetMGM |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | 66 | 0.15 | 9.9 | BetRivers |
| Taylor Pendrith | 40 | 0.17 | 6.8 | DraftKings |
| Taylor Montgomery | 100 | 0.07 | 7 | BetRivers |
Golfers to Land in the Top 60 of the Field for All Categories
(Not a negative value over five spots off, Using Top 75 this week)
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools, and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
***There are six players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter/X.
My biggest problem with Alex Noren and Cameron Young is their projected ownership and actual price tags. Both of their profiles have a certain built-in safety, but my model prefers the win equity marks from Tom Kim and Min Woo Lee.
Lee ranked second in my model for Distance + Proximity + Putting and also landed at the exact same total for Weighted Strokes Gained Total. When you add that to his stout Total Driving Expectation, you get a golfer who joined Kim with nine top 10 categories out of 14 chances between the two.
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Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the promo code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, Spencer's data models, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get exclusive access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry!
Final 2023 Golf Betting Results:
(Individual breakdowns of all sections in thread) @RotoBaller2023 (+16.634 Units)
2022 (+67.485 Units)
2021 (+68.846 Units)
2020 (+37.015 Units)
2019 (+27.743 Units)
2018 (+55.88 Units)
2017 (+54.26 Units)Overall: (+327.863 Units) pic.twitter.com/tuaDfwFXlo
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) November 21, 2023
Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$9,000 Range
I found this board straightforward in how I wanted to treat these opening two sections. If Kim and Lee are going to land as my higher-priced commodities, Taylor Pendrith is worth the chalk at his $9,600 price tag.
Pendrith has generated seven top-33 finishes over his past eight starts, posting a victory and four additional top-25 results during that run. While I realize a lot of that has been putter-heavy in its nature, there wasn't a golfer in my model who graded better on "Easy-Scoring Courses" or Recent Strokes Gained Total than the Canadian.
Pendrith's distance has helped him to post back-to-back top-15 finishes at this course during his only two attempts.
Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$8,000 Range
There is a lot to like in this section. Most players graded as a neutral or better value when looking through the slate
I came very close to betting Maverick McNealy and Aaron Rai in the outright market but decided not to because of their lack of upside totals in my sheet. While that decision came because we can't have tickets on everyone in the field, each man looks like a legit top-five candidate to consider for DFS.
You can see their profiles inside of my model.
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players to Consider ($7,000+)
Check out my model for everything in this section. There, you will get individual rankings on all players and be able to weigh the data to create your very own model when you make a copy. Please consider signing up for this tool that I am very proud to share with the public!
The only reason Matt Wallace didn't make my outright card was because of his lengthy travel to get to Detroit Golf Club. Maybe that was too technical of a reason, but the price tag is substantially too cheap here for DFS.
I had envisioned a different year for Nicolai Hojgaard entering 2024. Outside of his early-season top-10 showings at the Dubai Desert Classic and Farmers Insurance Open, there has yet to be a top-15 finish on his resume in 12 starts since that moment, including four missed cuts and an additional four finishes landing 50th or worse.
I know all those reasons are going to discourage DFS players, but Hojgaard ranked first in this field when combining Distance, Proximity and Putting into one grade to fit the venue, and it also found an upside for him to use his length off the tee to overcome some of his recent questionable returns with the driver.
The floor has problems, but I view this answer similarly to why I liked Wyndham Clark last week.
$6,000 Options to Consider
If you could promise me Taylor Montgomery would enter the week healthy, he would be my locked-in choice for this section. I will just leave him as someone I am incredibly bullish on and way above public consensus, but I don't want to fall into the trap of recommending a player who might pull out of the event or might be rusty as my favorite play.
Instead, I will go with Thorbjorn Olesen as my preferred DFS target to avoid that danger. Olesen has produced five made cuts during his past six events and landed 16th in this field for Total Driving + Short Proximity + Corollary Putting Courses.
$5,000 Options to Consider
I gave Carson Young -120 over Ben Silverman at BetOnline earlier. We have since moved that line out to -138, but I would guess the price comes back down at some point.
Youmg's profile isn't perfect, but there is a certain return that is interesting my model.
Favorite Play Each Section (Monday):
$10,000+ - Min Woo Lee/Tom Kim
$9,000+ - Taylor Pendrith
$8,000+ - Aaron Rai/Maverick McNealy
$7,000+ - Nicolai Hojgaard/Matt Wallace
$6,000+ - Thorbjorn Olesen
$5,000+ - Carson Young
Fade In Each Section (Monday):
$10,000+ - Alex Noren
$9,000+ - Will Zalatoris
$8,000+ - Robert Macintyre
$7,000+ - Erik Van Rooyen
$6,000+ - Cameron Champ/Ben Silverman
$5,000+ - Martin Laird (There are a ton of options to consider) - I just gave the most mis-priced one near the top
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If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU
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Congrats @tenndolly2 ???
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