Welcome, everyone, to my DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks and advice for the 2025 RBC Heritage. I'll be providing DFS picks and analysis to help you set those winning DraftKings lineups.
New starting this year -- if you would like to see a deeper dive into my DraftKings analysis and thoughts for the week, you can click that link and find my beefed-up version, including more picks, data, analysis, and PGA DFS models.
Be sure to follow me on Twitter /X @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week. Also, if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'
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Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings - The RBC Heritage
Below are some of my favorite picks for DraftKings. We also have tons of other great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools, and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Spencer's Model (And More)
We have some exciting changes that we are implementing this year over at RotoBaller. There will be multiple subscription-based tiers for our readers to enjoy, including my very own TeeOffSports VIP Package that will include the following items:
PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)
- A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market.
- The RBC Heritage
Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)
- Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
- All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (296-228-30) 56.48%
- In-Tournament H2Hs (300-200-55) 60.00%
- Total H2Hs Since 2017: (596-428-85) 58.20%
- Outright Winners Since 2017: 51
- Units: +340.903 Units
- All Totals Are Entering 2025
- Click here to see an example
In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)
- Here, you will find updated stats for the particular tournament -- all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time Round 4 comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.
In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4
- Lifetime Record:
- (300-200-55) 60.00%
- Click here to see an example
First-Round Leader/ 3-Ball Articles
- Nine first-round leader wins in 2022.
- Click here to see an example
One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)
- 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
- Click here to see an example
Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool) + Ownership Trends
- We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.
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You can also sign up for the rest of the year for a discounted purchase that runs through December 31st. Now is the perfect time to try out all the great features at RotoBaller!
Let's Look at the Stats
| Stat | Harbour Town | PGA Average |
| Driving Distance | 269 | 284 |
| Driving Accuracy | 65% | 61% |
| GIR Percentage | 58% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 62% | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.37 | 0.55 |
Field
Field Size: 72
Cut: No Cut
Top 20 Entrants: 16
Last Five Winners of The RBC Heritage
| 2024 | Scottie Scheffler | -19 |
| 2023 | Matthew Fitzpatrick | -17 |
| 2022 | Jordan Spieth | -13 |
| 2021 | Stewart Cink | -19 |
| 2019 | Webb Simpson | -22 |
Expected Cut-Line at The RBC Heritage
| 2024 | -1 |
| 2023 | 1 |
| 2022 | -1 |
| 2021 | -3 |
| 2019 | 1 |
Harbour Town
7,121 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Bermuda (Overseeded)
You can find my premium course breakdown in my premium DraftKings article this week.
First Look Into Outright Bets
I really like Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas and Russell Henley, but I would rather wait for in-tournament action for any major additions
| Player | Price |
| Akshay Bhatia | 75 |
Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA and Betting subscription?
Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the promo code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, Spencer's data models, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get exclusive access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry!
Final 2023 Golf Betting Results:
(Individual breakdowns of all sections in thread) @RotoBaller2023 (+16.634 Units)
2022 (+67.485 Units)
2021 (+68.846 Units)
2020 (+37.015 Units)
2019 (+27.743 Units)
2018 (+55.88 Units)
2017 (+54.26 Units)Overall: (+327.863 Units) pic.twitter.com/tuaDfwFXlo
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) November 21, 2023
Favorite Targets Early On Monday
Collin Morikawa ($10,900)
I discussed this concept briefly in our RotoBaller Discord this week. The outright market is extremely stretched out, and the hold percentage is about as steep as I have seen since entering this space on the content creation side in 2018.
That doesn't mean there aren't spots to attack value or that a longer shot couldn't be considered down the board. However, I found myself in this position where I don't know how many more times my model can tell me that Collin Morikawa is a value at these 10-12 numbers and sink funds into something that is starting to appear to be a fugazi. At some point, his lack of win equity since October of 2023 does matter when you pay these prices.
I am fine waiting to jump into this wager once the event begins if my model continues to provide this belief of his soon-to-be win on Thursday/Friday night, but for as much as my math still likes the outright price, the best value is likely on his DraftKings total because of the playability you incorporate into your builds when starting with him at the top.
Morikawa has historically shown immense upside on similar tests that reward approach play because of small green complexes, and the statistical difference between Scottie Scheffler and Morikawa is only worth about a 4.5% edge that Scheffler beats Morikawa this weekend. That might seem like a significant total, but I want everyone to realize that roster construction becomes much more straightforward when beginning builds with Morikawa.
For what this is worth, this is not an anti-Scheffler take. He is still the favorite to win and is very useable inside my sheet. Still, the fact remains that Morikawa remains the most optimal start to lineups because of his playability with any option on the entire board.
Russell Henley ($9,700), Sepp Straka ($8,800)
We saw a similar situation occur for both Russell Henley and Sepp Straka at the Masters. You got massive ownership projections for both, terrible Thursday rounds and a near come-from-behind surge on Friday to make the weekend, eventually getting undone by a bad hole at the end of the day.
I don't anticipate the industry looking past these two because there is an argument to be made that Harbour Town is a better fit for both than Augusta. However, any reduction in ownership would be enticing since we are talking about legitimate top-10 plays on the board.
My model thought Henley should have been the third favorite on the slate when taking pure upside within the stats, while Straka generated top-eight projections in that area. Both of those answers should keep either man on your radar.
Brian Harman ($7,600), Akshay Bhatia ($7,700)
I have matchups on both lefties and considered each inside the outright market.
While I didn't ultimately get there on Harman at the time of writing this piece to win, here is where each ranked out of 72 players when diving into the six categories I weighed:
Bhatia's profile is that of someone who is exhibiting a massive ceiling if he can put the pieces together.
Dart Throws
Joe Highsmith ($6,200), Matt Kuchar ($6,000), Jacob Bridgeman ($6,700)
Kuchar and Bridgeman were rather equal inside of my sheet as the two names who had the best value on the slate in the $6,000 range.
Highsmith possesses a boom-or-bust profile but could be extreme leverage if gamers decide to overlook his high-end proximity from 175+ yards and recent putting returns.
Win More With RotoBaller
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Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:
If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU
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Congrats @tenndolly2 ???
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